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    FScN 8334

    Topic 2

    Reaction OrderDetermination

    and reaction kinetics

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion Page # 2

    I. General definitions

    A. general equation for equilibrium

    kaA bB cC dD

    k

    KC D

    A B

    k

    k

    f

    b

    eq

    c d

    a b

    f

    b

    + +

    = [ ] [ ][ ] [ ]

    =

    [X] = concentration of each species

    a,b,c etc = stoichiometry # of species to give mass balance

    kf = forward rate constant (units depend on stoichiometry)

    kb = backward rate constant

    Keq= equilibrium constant

    B. Relationship to thermodynamics

    G H T S RT K eq= = ln

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion Page # 3

    C. molecularity vs stoichiometry

    molecularity - actual # of reacting species

    stoichiometry - # to mass balance equation

    molecularity stoichiometry

    (1) A --------> C 1 A --->C

    (2) A +A-->A + A*---->A + C 2 A ---->C

    D. Water

    In general neglect water as reactant as concentration is 55 M/L

    and does not change with reaction extent.

    ? of low moisture systems

    ? of pH - if H+ or OH- catalyzed - especially as water content

    changes

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion Page # 4

    II. Reaction order

    A. Gener alized ra te equa tion

    = [ ] [ ] =dAdt

    k A Bn na b rate of gain or loss per unit time

    = amount / time

    k = rate constant

    [A] = concentration

    [B] = concentrationn = order with repect to A or Bx

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion Page # 5

    B. Order definitions

    overall order = sum of exponents = a+b = n

    dAdt

    k A Ba b= [ ] [ ]

    specific order - may not be the stoichiometric parameters,

    rather it is the curve fitting parameters

    GEORGE BOX :

    ALL MODELS ARE WRONG BUT SOME ARE USEFUL

    for A order = a

    for B order b

    for A -> C overall order = 1

    for A + A -> A + C order = 2

    order can be fractional - complex reaction

    order can be zero -

    - change in A negligible over time eg drug in

    suspension

    - not true stoichiometry

    pseudo order - mechanism unknown - curve fitting

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion Page # 6

    C. Units convention for rate constant

    mass balance

    A B C + >

    2 3

    moles = 0

    dA

    dtk A B

    dB

    dtk A B k k

    dC

    dtk A B k k

    dA

    dt

    dB

    dt

    dC

    dt

    A

    B b A

    C C A

    = [ ][ ]

    = [ ][ ] =

    = [ ][ ] =

    +

    +

    + =

    2

    2

    2

    2

    3

    0

    thus always look at how the rate constant was measured

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion Page # 7

    D. Reaction Rate for simple two component equilibrium reaction

    1. reaction (example: mutarotation of reducing sugars in

    solution)

    k

    A B

    k

    KB

    A

    k

    k

    f

    b

    eq

    f

    b

    = [ ][ ]

    =

    2. boundary conditions for equilibrium reactions

    at time = 0 A = Ao

    at time = t A=Ao - x B = x

    at time = teq

    B = Xe A=Ao - Xe

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion Page # 8

    3. solution

    + = = [ ] [ ]

    = [ ] [ ]

    = =

    =

    = [ ] [ ] = [ ] [ ][ ]

    = [ ]

    dB

    dt

    dA

    dt

    k A k B

    k A x k x

    Kk

    k

    x

    A xk k

    A x

    x

    dx

    dtk A x k x k A x

    k

    x A x x

    k

    x A x xx

    f b

    f o b

    eq

    f

    b

    e

    o e

    b fo e

    e

    f o b f o

    f

    e

    o e

    f

    e

    o e e [ ][ ]

    = [ ]

    k

    x A x x

    k

    x A x x

    f

    e

    o e

    f

    e

    o e

    ln lnA A

    A A

    B

    B B

    k

    BA t k k t o e

    t e

    e

    e

    f

    e

    o f b

    =

    = = +[ ]

    thus plot either the A or B function vs time .

    Need to know A or B as function of time and Ao and either Ae or Be

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion Page # 9

    E. Complex reactions

    A--->B---->C

    at time = t =0 Ao=Aat time = t Ao = A + B + C (mass balance)

    dA

    dtk A A A e

    dB

    dtk A k B

    B A A C A e C

    dC

    dtk B k A e k C

    dC

    dt

    k C k A e

    A o

    k t

    A B

    o o

    k t

    B B o

    k t

    B

    B B o

    k t

    A

    A

    A

    A

    = =

    =

    = = [ ]

    = = [ ]

    + = [ ]

    1

    1

    1

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 1 0

    first order differential equation general solution

    dy

    dxP is function such that P'(x) = p(x)

    + =

    ( ) =

    =

    = +

    p x y q x

    P x p x

    e

    y q dx c

    xP x

    x x x

    ( ) ( )

    ( )

    ( )( )

    ( ) ( ) ( )

    T h u s :

    Bk A

    k ke e

    C k Ak

    ek k

    e e

    A o

    B A

    k t k t

    B o

    B

    k t

    B A

    k t k t

    A B

    B A B

    =

    [ ]

    = ( ) ( )

    1

    11

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 1 1

    Stepwise solution for magnitudes of rate constants

    Plot A vs time ---> kA from slope

    for B and C

    need to solve for constants by curve fitting techniques

    no simple plots - use non-linear regression techniques

    eg Excell Solver Function

    JMP

    Sigma Plot Curve Fitting Function

    solve for kB first as know kA from ln A vs time plot

    use Levenburg- Marquat or Rungga Katta techniques

    then do the same for same for C as a function of time

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 1 2

    III. Order determination

    = [ ]dA

    dt

    k AAn

    A. Method of differentiation

    1. plot concentration vs time. and draw smooth curve (fig 2-1)

    2. slope is dA/dt.

    determine slope at various points in time by:

    a. drawing tangent to curve

    b. taking A for each t (need lots of data points)

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 1 3

    3. plot ln dA/dt vs ln A as in Figure 2-2

    ln ln ln

    dA

    dt k n AA= [ ] + [ ]slope = n the order

    rate constant from algebraic substitution

    Figure 2-1 Figure 2-2

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 1 4

    4. Class example

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 1 5

    ` a. slope determinations

    order close to 1

    rate constant 0.06 units (time^ -0.68)

    5. On-line computer instrument analyzers - depends on time

    differential used and reaction rate.

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 1 6

    B. Method of integration

    1. Order = 0 pseudo zero order

    a. general solution

    = [ ] =

    =

    [ ] =

    =

    dA

    dtk A k

    dA k dt

    A A k t

    A A k t

    z

    z

    t

    A

    A

    z

    o z

    0

    0

    0

    0

    plot A vs time ---> straight line

    or plot Ao-A vs time --> straight line

    slope = rate constant = kz

    kA A

    t tz =

    2 1

    2 1

    units = amount per time (eg mg/L hr)

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 1 7

    b. data for amount vs time for zero order plot

    c. draw line on graph and calculate slope (next page)

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 1 8

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 1 9

    d. results

    class value kavg= (95% CL) = t/n

    my value kz=

    e. linear regression generated results

    kz = 0.7718 units/time 0.128 (95% CL)

    kupper = 0.90 klower= 0.644 r2 = 0.954

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 2 0

    Figure 2-3 Example from nonenzymatic browning

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 2 1

    2. first order

    a. derivation of equations

    =

    =

    =

    =

    =

    =

    =

    dAdt

    k A

    dA

    Ak dt

    A

    Ak t

    A

    Ak t

    A A e

    A

    A

    kt

    A A

    f

    A

    A

    f

    t

    f

    f

    k t

    f

    k

    t

    f

    f

    0 0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    02 303

    2 303

    10

    ln

    ln

    log.

    .

    [A]

    time

    log

    slope * 2.3=k

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 2 2

    b. rate constant units = time-1

    kf = slope of ln [A] vs t plot

    = slope of ln [A/Ao] vs t plot

    kf= 2.3 * slope on semi-log plot of [A] vs time

    or of semi-log plot of [A/Ao] vs time

    k

    A

    A

    tf = 2 303

    10

    .

    log[ ]

    [ ]

    c. class test dat a

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 2 3

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 2 4

    d. results of calculations

    instructor kf =

    class kf= (95%CL) = t/n

    linear regression slope = 0.00634 time-1(r2 = 0.989)

    thus kf =2.3 * slope = 0.0146 0.0012 (95%CL)

    kupper=0.0158 klower=0.0134

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 2 5

    Figure 2-4 Example of first order Ascorbic acid loss

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 2 6

    e. first order production of quantity B starting with quantity Ao

    (1) mathematical derivation note assumes all A -> B

    A Bat t A A B

    at t A B B

    at t t B A A A A B

    A A e

    A B A e B A e or B B e

    kt

    kt

    kt kt

    = = =

    = = =

    = = =

    =

    == =

    0 0

    0

    1 1

    0

    0 0

    0

    0 0

    0 ( ) ( )

    non linear solution

    solve for k

    here Beq is value when all A-->B

    can assume at large time B= Be = Ao

    Note: usually only can measure A or B not both

    B

    time

    Beq

    Note: ln ln ln( ) B B ekt= +

    1

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 2 7

    b. algebraic plot solution

    algebraic solution

    dB

    dt kA A A B

    dB

    A

    dB

    A Bkdt

    A B

    A Bkt or

    B B

    B Bkt

    if B then B A

    A

    A Bkt

    o

    B

    B

    oB

    B

    o

    t

    o

    o o

    = + =

    =

    =

    [ ][ ]

    =[ ][ ]

    =

    =

    [ ][ ]

    =

    ln ln

    ln

    0 0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    can plot ln(function) vs time to get slope = k

    need good estimate of Beq when Ao value not known

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 2 8

    3. Other orders when n not equal to 1

    a. derivation of rate equation (one reactant)

    dAdt

    k A

    dA

    Ak dt

    A An k t

    A

    n k

    nn

    n

    A

    A

    n

    t

    n n

    f

    n

    f

    = [ ]

    =

    = [ ]

    [ ]

    0 0

    1

    0

    1

    1

    1 11

    1

    1

    for n 1

    plot vs t

    slope =

    positive or negative slope depending on loss vs gain

    can also plot Y = A(1-n)*(1/1-n) vs time gives straight line with slope of k

    basis of Macintosh computer program ( same plot for n = 2)

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 2 9

    b. class example for second order

    A + A ----> B

    n=2 therefore 1-n = -1

    plot Y= [A]-1vs time

    slope = k

    k = (concentration time)-1eg mM-1L-1

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 3 0

    c second order plot

    second order n=2 r2 = 0.949

    slope = k = 0.000313 0.0001

    kupper= 0.000413 klower= 0.000213

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 3 1

    d. Two reactants (each 1st order)

    A + B ----> C

    = [ ][ ] = =

    = =

    [ ] =

    =

    =

    + [ ]

    = [ ]

    dA

    dtk A B

    dC

    dt

    dx

    dt

    A A x

    B B x

    C x

    A x

    B x

    A

    B

    A

    B A B kt

    A

    A

    B

    B A B kt

    o

    o

    [ ] [ ]

    [ ] [ ]

    ln ln ln

    ln

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0 0

    0

    00 0

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 3 2

    (1) if can measure A and B independently then

    plot ln [A/B] vs time

    slope = [Ao-Bo] k

    (2) if know Ao and Bo and can measure C thenplot ln[(Ao-C)/(Bo-C)] vs time.

    same slope = [Ao-Bo] k

    (3) if all three measurable can make both plots and

    compare k values - allows for ? of accuracy of

    measurement

    (4) can also assume initial rate holds

    measure loss of A kA= k [Bo]

    measure loss of B kB = k[ Ao]

    find k separately either way

    compare to plot for both simultaneously

    (5) same as (4) but also measure C

    if smaller suggests that C---> D

    (6) examples ascorbic acid + oxygen in packageamino acid + reducing sugar (NEB)

    (7) error based on error of measurement of concentrations

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 3 3

    C. Method of half lives

    1. first order n=1

    ln

    ln ln . .

    .

    AA

    k t

    A

    Ak t

    kt

    t

    o

    f

    o

    f

    f

    =

    = [ ] = =

    =

    =

    12 0 5 0 693

    0 693

    0

    12

    12

    12

    half life in time units

    from above example

    A= 1/2 Aowhen t = 50 time units

    thus kf = 0.693/50 = 0.0.01386 time-1

    should run experiment through 2 - 3 half lives

    Ascorbic acid half life data

    system half-life days @ F

    canned OJ 300 100

    frozen veges 240 10

    IMF no oxygen 70 82IMF in air 12 82

    IMF in air 5 100

    dry tomato 180 100

    dry potato 24 100

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 3 4

    2. life for any fractional decrease

    where f = decimal fraction (A/Ao) and n=1

    ln

    ln ln

    ln

    AA

    k t

    fA

    A f k t

    kf

    t

    t

    o

    f

    of f

    f

    f

    f

    =

    = [ ] =

    =

    =

    0

    fraction life in time units

    (a) eg for decrease by 1 log cycle ie 1/10 of original

    as in microbial death where f=0.1

    ln

    ln

    .

    ln .

    ln . ..

    log . .

    .

    .

    .

    A

    Ak t

    A

    A k t

    k D D D D

    Dk

    t D

    o

    f

    o

    f

    f

    f

    =

    = [ ] =

    =

    = = =

    =

    =

    0 1

    0 1

    0 1 2 30262 3

    0 1 2 3

    2 3

    00 1

    0 1 value in time for 1 log cycle decrease

    (b) drug stability time to 10% loss f=0.9

    tk k

    0 9

    0 9 0 11.

    ln . .=

    =

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 3 5

    3. half life for second order where n=2

    = [ ] = [ ]

    [ ]

    =

    = =

    =

    dA

    dt

    k A k A

    dA

    Akdt

    A A Akt

    tkA

    A

    A

    At

    o o o

    o

    2 2

    2

    0 5

    0

    12

    12

    2

    2 1 1

    1

    0

    01

    2.

    4. half life for any order n except n=1

    t k n A

    n

    o

    n12

    1

    1

    1

    1

    2 1

    = [ ]

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 3 6

    D. Other methods for order determination

    1. Initial rate for complex reactions

    - assume pseudo first order with respect to A

    - assume all others are constant (B etc.) ie small change

    eg. A +B ----> C

    dA

    dt

    k A B

    dA

    dtk A

    k k B

    B

    B

    = [ ][ ]

    = [ ]

    = [ ]

    assume B >> A

    log plot of [A] vs time ---> kB

    kB [Bo] = k

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 3 7

    2. Powell Plot method (n 1)

    1 11

    1

    1 1 1

    1

    1

    1 1

    1 1

    1

    1

    1

    1 1

    A A

    n kt

    A A n kt

    A

    An A kt zt

    z n A k

    A

    A

    A

    A

    n

    o

    n

    n

    o

    n

    o

    n

    o

    n

    o

    n

    o

    n

    o

    = [ ]

    = [ ]

    = + = +

    =

    =

    ( )

    ( )

    nn

    n

    x p

    o

    o

    zt

    also y p yp y

    n AA zt

    A

    A nz

    nt

    =

    = = + + [ ]

    = [ ]

    =

    [ ] +

    [ ]

    1

    1 1 12

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    2

    lnln

    !

    ( ) ln ln

    ln ln ln

    for small change 3rd term small thus:

    do linear regression of ln A/Ao vs ln time

    slope = 1/1-n

    get k from intercept value (1/1-n) ln z

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 3 8

    original paper has A/Ao vs log t lines for different n values

    choose the one that is the closest

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 3 9

    3. Wilkinson plots ( Chem. & Ind. 9/2/61 pg. 1395)

    1 11

    1

    1 1

    1

    1

    1

    1 1

    1 1

    1

    1

    1

    A An kt

    A A n kt

    A

    An A kt

    set f A

    A

    A

    Af

    A

    Af

    n

    o

    n

    n

    o

    n

    o

    n

    o

    n

    c

    o

    o

    c

    o

    n

    c

    = [ ]

    = [ ]

    = +

    =

    =

    =

    ( )

    (fraction consumed)

    f = 1 when A = Ao

    [[ ] = +

    = = =

    [ ] = +

    [ ] = +

    [ ]

    1 1

    2 3

    1 2

    1

    1 1

    0

    1

    1 11

    2

    1 2

    3

    1 1 1 12

    1 1

    n

    o

    n

    c

    x

    cn

    c c

    c

    n

    n A t

    for n f zt k

    At

    for n

    y xyx x y x x x y

    f n f n n f

    f

    ( )

    ( )

    !

    ( )( )

    !

    ( ) ( )

    series expansion

    drop last term

    ++

    = +

    =

    ( )( )

    ( )n fn nf

    n A t

    f k t n

    f

    f

    f k t

    f k t n kt

    f

    f

    tk

    n kf

    cc

    o

    n

    c c

    c

    c

    c c

    cc

    11

    21 1

    2

    2

    2

    21

    2

    subtract 1s and divide by n -1

    = A

    if small (small extent) then

    A (essentially zero order at start)

    substitute in for one value of f

    = AA

    AA

    o

    n-1

    o

    n-1

    o

    n-1 o

    n-1

    o

    n-1 o

    n-1

    tt

    f k

    nt= +

    1

    2Aon-1

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 4 0

    plot t/fcon vs time where fcon= fraction consumed =1-A/Ao

    slope of line is n/2

    derivation is not 1st order but paper says use anyway

    at small t and fcon t/fcon-->

    t /f

    f

    test of Wilkinson plot with sam e dat a

    t /f con

    0

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 4 1

    plot of all data

    Note poor fit of line

    from plot order = 2 * 0.21 = 0.42

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 4 2

    plot of data after time =10

    from modified plot

    order = 2 * 0.55 = ~ 1.2 so closer but not a good method

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 4 3

    E. Other important factors

    1. Error of % basis for zero order

    suppose 1 mg/day loss rate and:

    A1=100 or A

    2=200

    then at t = 50 A=100-kt A=200-kt

    A=100-1*50=50 A=200-1*50=150

    % %

    % / . % /

    dayx

    dayx

    day day

    =

    =

    = =

    100 50

    100

    50100

    200 150

    200

    50100

    1 0 5

    thus %/day depends on initial value of A for zero order

    not a problem for 1st order

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 4 4

    2. fraction consumed - zero order

    A A kt

    A A

    A

    A

    A f

    A A

    A

    k

    At f

    fk

    A

    t

    kA A

    tf

    A

    A

    t

    t

    kA

    t

    f kA

    t

    o

    o

    o orem

    o

    o o

    con

    rem

    o

    o s

    s

    cons

    o s

    o

    s

    con

    o

    = =

    =

    = =

    = =

    =

    =

    =

    =

    = =

    amount lost

    f

    thus plot f vs time - - > straight line

    or f vs time

    if set A = 100% shelf life and A = 0% then

    con

    con

    rem

    o s

    1 1

    1

    1

    ttt

    AA

    fs o

    rem= = 1 1

    plot fraction consumed vs time -->straight line

    slope = k/Ao-As = 1/ts

    fraction consumed at any condition = time/total time to 100% done

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 4 5

    3. first order fraction consumed

    ln

    log( ) log( )

    A

    A

    kt

    A

    Ae

    f f e

    f e

    f e

    o

    o

    kt

    rem con

    kt

    con

    kt

    con

    kt

    =

    =

    = =

    = =

    1

    1

    1

    plot log fraction remaining vs time as before

    plot of log fraction consumed vs time not a straight line !!!

    while plot of fraction remaining is ie ln A/Ao vs time

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 4 6

    4. Choice of best order

    a. best fit with highest r2

    ? of meaning of linear regression

    with 6-8 points need r ~ 0.95 (r2 = 0.9)

    change order regresses something different

    standard error (SE) also different units

    b. # of data points

    should have at least 6-8 points spread over 30-50% loss

    c. degree of change

    For example if:

    at t =0 A=100

    at t=50 A=50

    thenkz= (100-50)/50 = 1 unit/day

    kf=0.693/50=0.01386 (units time-1)

    time zero first

    0 100 100

    10 90 87

    20 80 75.830 70 65.98

    40 60 57.4

    50 50 50

    thus makes little difference for first 50% loss because of

    analytical errors

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 4 7

    d. maximum analytical error (From Benson) error propagationx F p q

    F

    p

    F

    q

    F

    p

    F

    q

    k C C t

    x p q pq

    k C C

    o

    t

    C C

    o

    o

    =

    =

    +

    +

    =( )

    +

    ( , , ....)

    ( )

    ( )

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    for zero order

    C = C - kt k =C - C

    to

    o

    22 2 2= + C Co

    if at time = 1 Co = 1 and C = 0.9 with relative error (analytical precision) of 1% in

    measurement of C and 1% error in measurement of time then:

    ( ) ( . ) . .

    .

    .

    ..

    . .

    C C C C

    k

    k

    k

    o ox

    k

    x

    kk

    = + = + ( ) =

    = +

    [ ] =

    = =

    2 2 2 2 2 4

    2

    2

    4

    2

    2

    2

    0 01 0 009 1 81 10

    1 81 10

    0 1

    0 01

    10 0182

    0 135 0 135

    if at t= 10 C = 0.5 then

    ( ) ( . ) . .

    .

    .

    ..

    . .

    C C C C

    k

    kk

    o ox

    k

    xx

    kk

    = + = + ( ) =

    = +

    [ ] =

    = =

    2 2 2 2 2 4

    2

    2

    4

    2

    2

    2

    4

    0 01 0 005 1 25 10

    1 25 10

    0 5

    0 01

    105 01 10

    0 0024 0 0224

    Thus inaccuracy depends on magnitude of Co-C and time as well as

    inaccuracies in time and concentration measurement

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 4 8

    % error in k at % change in reactant monitored

    Analytical

    precision % 1% 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

    0.1 14 2.8 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3

    0.5 70 14 7 3.5 2.5 2 1.5

    1 >100 28 14 7 5 4 3

    2 >100 56 28 14 10 8 6

    5 >100 >100 70 35 25 20 15

    10 >100 >100 >100 70 50 40 30

    e. should do multiple zero time values for precision

    f. problem of extraction vs analytical test

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 4 9

    IV. Statistical analysis of rate constants

    A. Evaluation of variance

    1. Gaussian distribution

    (a) mean distribution is 2 for 95.43% confidence

    is measure of variation of individuals in population

    2is the variance

    Range of confidence = x_ 2

    Se=standard error = variation of sample means

    (b) for a large amount of data, the 95% confidence limits are:

    x

    n 1 96.

    where2

    2

    1=

    [ ]

    x xn

    (c) coefficient of variation (CV) is:

    cvx

    =

    100

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 5 0

    (d) variability at any %CL is:

    x tn

    t t

    n

    T

    T

    =

    =

    value at degrees of freedom

    and desired probability

    = n

    # of data points

    T 2

    Statistical significance says that data are adequate to reject thenull hypothesis that two systems are the same. Practicality is

    based on how big a difference is important which must be

    answered on other than statistical reasons.

    Type I () error: hypothesis A=B when data says A B

    Type II()error: hypothesis AB when data says A=B

    Table shows need for high # of points to lower t value (>8)

    ? of time, cost, and reliability

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 5 1

    (e) Student t Table = degrees of freedom = n-2

    p=90% p=95% p=99%

    1 6.31 12.7163.66

    2 2.92 4.30 9.93

    3 2.35 3.18 5.84

    4 2.13 2.78 4.60

    5 2.02 2.57 4.03

    6 1.94 2.45 3.71

    7 1.90 2.37 3.50

    8 1.86 2.31 3.36

    9 1.83 2.31 3.3610 1.81 2.23 3.17

    11 1.80 2.20 3.11

    12 1.78 2.18 3.06

    13 1.77 2.16 3.01

    14 1.76 2.15 2.98

    15 1.75 2.13 2.95

    16 1.75 2.12 2.92

    17 1.74 2.11 2.90

    20 1.73 2.09 2.85

    25 1.71 2.06 2.79

    30 1.70 2.04 2.75

    40 1.68 2.02 2.70

    50 1.68 2.02 2.70

    60 1.67 2.00 2.66

    80 1.66 1.99 2.64

    100 1.66 1.98 2.63

    above 6-8 points, doubling the points reduces the t by about

    10% so question of error allowed vs cost of doing more points

    Going from 10 to 20 points decreases error by only 5%

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 5 2

    B. Linear regression

    1. definition : minimize sum of squares of y from fit of linearized

    function.

    ie least vertical deviation from straight line fit.

    Major assumption (time is exact - ie not a variable!!!)

    cannot really compare different type functions

    same is true for standard error comparison

    2. equations

    Intercept = I =

    I y x x xy

    n x x=

    [ ][ ] [ ][ ][ ] [ ]

    2

    22

    Slope = k =

    k n xy x y

    n x x= [ ] [ ][ ]

    [ ] [ ] 2

    2

    True intercept = =

    = +[ ]

    [ ] [ ]

    I t sn

    x

    n x n xe

    12

    2 22

    12

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 5 3

    True slope = =

    =

    [ ] [ ] k

    t s

    n x x

    n

    e

    2

    2

    Standard error = se =

    `

    s y I y k xy

    ne =

    [ ] [ ] [ ]

    21

    2

    2

    Coefficient of determination r2 (r =correlation coefficient)

    rn xy x y

    n x x n y y

    2

    2

    2 1 2

    2

    2 1 2

    2

    =[ ] [ ][ ]

    [ ] [ ][ ] [ ] [ ][ ]

    3. Predicted future value and 95% confidence limits:

    within data limits first term of 1 is deleted

    y I kx t sn

    n x x

    n x xo e0

    02

    22

    12

    11= + + [ ]

    [ ] [ ]

    ( )

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 5 4

    4. Comparison of rate constants

    If hypothesis is k1 = k2 then they are the same if

    (a) the 95% confidence limits overlap

    significant difference (actually > 95%) rigorous test

    k1k2

    (b) t test of significance - Two tailed

    = 2(n-1)

    tk k

    S S

    t t

    e e

    table

    =+

    >

    2 1

    2 1

    2

    95significant if @ %

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 5 5

    5. Dealing with the zero/zero time point in regression

    force fit or error of measurement

    6. Point by point method: (can use spread sheet)

    treat each data point as one experiment and get k and 95%CL

    from table

    kA A

    t

    k

    AA

    t

    kk

    n

    t

    n

    zo

    f

    avg

    =

    =

    =

    ln0

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 5 6

    7. Quality of the regression value

    r (correlation coefficient) must be greater thanat given level of significance

    n=# of data pairs =95% =99% =99.53 0.9974 0.950 0.990 0.9995 0.878 0.934 0.9596 0.811 0.882 0.9177 0.754 0.833 0.8758 0.707 0.789 0.8349 0.666 0.750 0.79810 0.632 0.715 0.76511 0.602 0.685 0.73512 0.576 0.658 0.70813 0.553 0.634 0.68414 0.532 0.612 0.66115 0.514 0.592 0.641

    16 0.497 0.574 0.62317 0.482 0.558 0.60618 0.468 0.543 0.59019 0.456 0.529 0.57520 0.444 0.516 0.56121 0.433 0.503 0.54922 0.423 0.492 0.53727 0.381 0.445 0.48732 0.349 0.409 0.44937 0.325 0.381 0.41842 0.304 0.358 0.39347 0.288 0.338 0.37252 0.273 0.322 0.35462 0.250 0.295 0.325

    72 0.232 0.274 0.30282 0.217 0.256 0.28392 0.205 0.242 0.267

    from R.Fisher and Y. Yates Statistical Tables for Biological, Agricultural, and Medical Research Oliver &Boyd Ltd., Edinburg.

    Note that with a good r2 of 0.95 you can be assured of a high quality (95%CL) at only 4 data points. For 6 data points if the r2 exceeds 0.66 you havehigh quality (p = 0.95)

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 5 7

    8 Other considerations

    a. minimize residual sum of squares in estimate vs actual value

    Y f x t e

    RSS y f x t

    i i i

    i i

    i

    n

    = +

    = [ ]=

    ( , )

    ( , )1

    2

    where

    yi = actual value

    model = f(xi, t)= estimate at xi, ti

    residual difference = ei = yi- ymodel

    b. make residual plots (ei vs time)

    homoscedastic = equal propagation

    var(ei) = constant= 2

    yi-f(x,t)

    time

    0

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 5 8

    heteroscedastic = convergence or min/maxvar(ei) = non-constant = 2/wi

    yi-f(x,t)

    time

    0

    convergeor diverge

    yi-f(x,t)

    time

    0

    min or max

    ie weighted by some unknown or error factor

    should always make residual plot (good test of quality of

    model)

    c. Linear models not necessarily straight line

    rule : derivative with respect to parameter is independent

    of parameter, thus for

    y ax bx cx

    y

    ax

    y

    bx

    y

    cx

    = + +

    = = =

    2 3

    2 3

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 5 9

    d. transformation of non-linear model to linear form

    y ae

    y a bx

    y xa b

    y yx

    bx=

    = +

    = += =

    = =

    ln ln

    ln

    * *

    *

    1

    e. transformation weights wi where

    RSS w y f x t

    Transformation weight

    yy

    yy

    y y

    i i i

    i

    n

    i

    i

    i

    ii

    i

    i i i

    = [ ]=

    ( , )

    ln

    1

    2

    4

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    f. non-linear regression

    need to estimate initial values

    use iterative solution of some search procedure

    minimize RSS

    gives approximate confidence limits

    danger of local minimum

    gives different value at t = 0

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 6 0

    9. Use of Mac Program -

    a. review of steps

    (1) enter data for A vs time

    (2) choose possible orders

    (3) calculate k and 95% CL for given temperature

    note for n not = 1 y value is A(1-n)*(1/1-n)

    (4) predict future values

    (5) make plot with 95% CL for order

    (6) repeat for each temperature

    (7) choose temps and calculate EA and Q10

    (8) make Arrhenius plot

    (9) calculate k for any temperature

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 6 1

    b. initial screen

    b. data inpu t : exam ple of class da ta

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 6 2

    d, order determina tion

    e. zero order plot

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 6 3

    f. firs t ord er plot

    g. second order plot

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    Topic 2 Or der Det er m in a t ion P age # 6 4