Competitività e struttura dell'economia italiana Incontro degli studenti dellUniversità...
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Competitività e struttura dell'economia italiana Incontro degli studenti dell’Università Politecnica delle Marche con le Istituzioni Europee Bruxelles, 12 maggio 2005 European Commission – DG ECFIN
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Transcript of Competitività e struttura dell'economia italiana Incontro degli studenti dellUniversità...
Competitività e struttura dell'economia italiana
Incontro degli studenti dell’Università Politecnica delle Marche con le Istituzioni Europee
Bruxelles, 12 maggio 2005
European Commission – DG ECFIN
(1) Sintomi: bassa crescita, esportazioni in affanno
(2) Diagnosi: costo del lavoro, tassi di cambio, specializzazzione
(3) Cause: capitale umano, rigidità strutturali, concorrenza
Struttura dell’intervento
Figure 1: Per capita income in PPSEU15=100
90
95
100
105
110
115 IT
DE
FR
Source: Commission services
European Commission – DG ECFIN
Figure 2: Export performance relative to market growth (1995=100)
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Ind
ex
IT
DE
FR
Source: European Commission Services
European Commission – DG ECFIN
Figure 1: Average contribution of manufacturing to overall GDP growth
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
91-'04 00-'04
Per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts IT
DE
FR
EU15
Source: European Commission Services
European Commission – DG ECFIN
European Commission – DG ECFIN
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
share of country's exports to Asia
Italy 7.1 7.2 7.4 9.5 10.1 10.4 11.2 9.8 7.0 7.0 7.7 8.3 8.3 7.7Germany 7.5 7.9 8.1 10.1 10.8 10.7 10.9 10.1 7.9 7.5 8.5 8.9 9.0 9.4France 7.6 6.7 6.5 7.9 8.1 9.2 8.5 8.7 7.1 7.0 7.1 7.5 7.1 6.8Euro area 6.5 6.4 6.6 8.4 8.7 9.0 9.1 8.6 6.8 6.7 7.2 7.5 7.4 7.2
share of country's exports to euro area
Italy 51.1 51.8 50.4 44.4 44.8 45.4 42.8 41.6 43.0 43.8 42.3 41.5 40.3 41.5Germany 42.8 43.3 43.7 38.8 38.7 39.1 37.8 36.4 37.2 39.2 37.6 37.8 37.6 38.4France 53.4 56.1 55.3 51.0 51.4 51.6 50.7 50.2 50.6 49.0 49.0 48.0 48.6 49.0
share of country's exports to Germany
Italy 19.3 21.3 20.8 17.2 17.4 17.4 16.2 15.4 15.9 15.5 14.8 14.1 13.3 13.2GermanyFrance 19.0 21.8 20.7 18.3 17.9 17.6 17.0 16.7 17.6 16.4 16.2 15.5 15.2 14.9
share of country's exports to USA
Italy 8.0 7.3 7.1 8.9 8.7 8.2 8.4 9.1 9.7 10.4 11.5 11.1 10.6 9.3Germany 7.3 6.9 7.2 8.3 8.2 7.8 8.2 9.2 10.2 10.5 11.1 10.9 10.6 9.5France 6.3 6.3 6.5 7.8 7.7 6.6 6.9 7.8 8.5 8.9 10.2 10.4 9.5 8.1
European Commission – DG ECFIN
cumulative1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 95-04
RULC IT -4.0 1.1 -1.0 -3.6 0.4 -2.0 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.6 -5.7DE 0.6 1.4 -3.8 -0.8 2.2 -0.6 1.5 -1.5 -2.1 -4.7 -7.8FR -4.1 0.1 -3.9 -5.2 -1.1 -2.5 -1.2 -1.8 -1.8 -4.3 -23.5
ProductivityIT 3.6 -0.6 2.8 -0.4 0.3 2.9 0.0 -1.9 -1.2 0.3 6.0DE 2.6 -0.2 5.0 1.7 -0.9 4.9 -0.9 1.5 2.9 6.0 25.1FR 4.8 0.8 5.9 5.0 3.7 3.3 1.9 2.5 1.8 5.9 42.5
Real wages IT -0.3 0.5 1.8 -4.0 0.7 0.9 0.6 -0.7 0.1 0.8 0.2DE 3.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.4 4.3 0.6 0.1 0.8 1.3 16.1FR 0.7 0.9 2.0 -0.3 2.6 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.0 1.6 10.5
Source: European Commission services
Table 1: Real unit labour costs (RULC) and its components in the manufacturing industrypercentage change
Figure : Real unit labor costs manufacturing (2000=100)
60
70
80
90
100
110In
dex
IT DE FR
Source: European Commission Services
European Commission – DG ECFIN
European Commission – DG ECFIN
Chart 3: Real effective exchange rate (1996=100)
80
90
100
110
120
130
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Ind
ex
IT DE FR
Source: European Commission Services
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 10 20 30 40 50
Share in world trade of low-cost countries (2003)
Ch
an
ge
in m
ark
et
sha
re o
f L
ow
-co
st c
ou
ntr
ies
(19
98
-03
)
Figure 4: Competitive pressure from low-cost countries (Wage costs lower than one fourth of Italy’s)
The size of circles indicates Italy’s share in world trade
Fashion: intermediate
Fashion: consumption
FurnitureHome: construction
Home: other goods
Construction: intermediate
Electrotech. goods
FoodCars and bikes
Pharmaceuticals
Chemical goods: intermediate
Machinery: equipment Packaging
Primary commod.
Metal prod.: intermediate
Electronic goods
Machinery:other
Commonconsumer goods
Source: ICE
European Commission – DG ECFIN
Figure 5: Stock of inward FDI in % of GDP
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 2000 2002 2003
per
cen
t
IT
DE
FR
Source: UNCTAD
European Commission – DG ECFIN
European Commission – DG ECFIN
European Commission – DG ECFIN
European Commission – DG ECFIN
