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Osservatorio Personal Broadband

“Anywhere Network”: Opportunità di Mercato e Nuovi Scenari Tecnologici

Andrea Calcagno, Resp. Osservatorio e CEO & EVP WiTech SpA

Agenda

Saluto e introduzione, a cura del Presidente dr. Achille De Tommaso

Anywhere Network Concept. Andrea Calcagno, Resp. Osservatorio e CEO & EVP WiTech

4G Business Case for 2.6 GHz . Andrea Calcagno, Resp. Osservatorio e CEO & EVP WiTech

Case Study: Freemax, Wireless Broadband 4G Operator in Tuscany. Eric Le Bihan, President & CEO Fremax

Anywhere Network Concept

Agenda

• Anywhere Network Access

• Consumer Access Evolution

• Anywhere Access Experience

Anywhere

Anywhere Network Access Combines Two Lifestyles: Wired and Wireless

Source: Yankee Group, 2009

Consumer Access

Anywhere Network Access Will Grow To a Nearly $1 Trillion Business by 2012

Source: Yankee Group Link Data: 2008 Market Adoption Monitors & Forecasts: Consumer

Consumer Access

Global Wireless Broadband Connections Are Also Outpacing Wired Broadband

Source: Yankee Group Market Adoption Monitors & Forecasts

Anywhere experience

Anywhere Experiences Combine the Quality of Wired with the Ubiquity of Wireless

Source: Yankee Group, 2009

Anywhere experience

Source: Yankee Group, 2009

Anywhere Combines the Best of Both Wired and Wireless Access

Anywhere experience

Source: Yankee Group, 2009

Seamless Anywhere Experiences Need Aspects of Both Wired and Wireless Experiences

4G Business Case for 2.6 GHz

Agenda

• 4G Technologies

• 4G Deployment Model

• Business Case

• Conclusion

4G Technologies

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mobile WiMAXMobile WiMAX

3GPP3GPPIP E2E Network

IP E2E Network

CKT Switched Network

OFDMA - BasedCDMA - Based

IMT-Advanced

4G Technologies

2G/3G/3.5G

Next GenerationAccess Network

Data Overlay or Replacement

LTE or WiMAX

All-IP CoreNetwork

2G/3G/3.5GCore NetworkT1,E1

Increased BH Capacity

Conversion to All-IP core & Increased

Backhaul capacity

Comparable Capex – New Spectrum Need

Support for Legacy RAN

4G Technologies

Deployment Model

Hotspot coverage

Urban Coverage National Coverage

Home Base Station

Business Case

Scenario: Urban Coverage ( Roma, Milano, Napoli, Torino , Firenze)

4G Technology: LTE ( 10 MHz, FDD, MIMO 2x2) Band: 2.6 GHz

Urban Scenario Dense Urban Scenario

Target Market: ConsumerService Profile: Mobile Broadband (Flat Data and VoIP)

Operator Type: CLEC (COMPETITIVE LOCAL EXCHANGE CARRIER) or Green Field

Devices: Handset and Tablet

Business Case Tool: TEA|LTE

Business Case – Market Analysis

Roma

Summary

Business Case – Market Analysis|Service Profile

Handset 70% - Tablet 30%

Business Case – Market Analysis|Forecast

Roma|Total Users Forecast

Business Case – Market Analysis|Forecast

Roma|Lost Users Forecast

Business Case – Market Analysis|Forecast

Roma|Net Users Forecast

Business Case – Market Analysis|Forecast

Total Net Users Forecast

Business Case – Market Analysis|Forecast

Total Revenues

Business Case – Technical Analysis|Technology

4G Technology: LTE ( 10 MHz, FDD, MIMO 2x2) Band: 2.6 GHz

Business Case – Technical Analysis|Equipment

Base Station: eNode B Devices

Business Case – Technical Analysis|Perfomance

Business Case – Technical Analysis|Perfomance

Business Case – Technical Network Dimensioning

MMES-GW/P-GW

eNode B

UT

Business Case – Technical Network Dimensioning

MMES-GW/P-GW

eNode B

UT

e Node B with MW BH Urban 20%

Dense Urban 10%

DA RIFARE

Business Case – Roll Out

MMES-GW/P-GW

eNode B

UT

Business Case – EF Analysis

Personnel

Business Case – EF Analysis

CAPEX & OPEX

Business Case – EF Analysis

EBITDA > 0 3rd YearEBIT > 0 4th YearNet Income > 0 6th Year

Income Statement

Business Case – EF Analysis

Peak Funding 74 M€PBP 6.3 YearsNPV 18,45 M€CFCF 100 M€

Cash Flow

Business Case – Conclusion

ARPU

Customer Lifetime

CAPEX

OPEX

4G Business Case – Urban Coverage – CLEC/Green Field

Value Added ApplicationsAdvertising RevenuesBroadband Devices

New pricing modelMore devices for UserAppl. Open AccessBetter User Experience

No Legacy

Economies of scaleAll-IP NetworkSpectral EffinciencyVirtual Network Opportunity

FTTS

Flat Architecture

Backup

Slide sul Business Case Tool: TEA-LTE

WiMAX & LTE Project Life-Cycle (1)

As for any carrier-class Broadband Wireless Access infrastructure,

building a WiMAX & LTE network is and will remain a complex

undertaking, …

Business Case

Budget Allocation

Definitive Project

Network Building

Quality Assurance

Services Launch

Optimization

WiMAX & LTE Project Life-Cycle (2)

… and the initial planning phases are particularly critical to set a solid

foundation for the success of the initiative. … 

Business Case

Budget Allocation

Definitive Project

Network Building

Quality Assurance

Services Launch

Optimization

A Holistic, Iterative Approach is Needed Since the Outset

Technical Analysis Dimensioning the WiMAX & LTE

Access and Backhauling network infrastructures, defining the

required bill of quantities

Market AnalysisEvaluating the potential market for WiMAX & LTE services,

identifying target markets, defining service profiles, and forecasting Revenues

Economic & Financial AnalysisCalculating Capex & Opex and

evaluating all WiMAX & LTE Business Plan’s KPI

Scenario & Sensitivity Analysis

Iterative fine-tuning of the WiMAX & LTE Business Plan, analyzing the influence of parameter and boundary condition changes

Taking into account all technology and business aspects to ensure an iterative alignment of business and technology strategies allowing to identify all main cost

drivers

WiTech TEA Family of Business Case Analysis Tools

LTE

Supporting 4G operators, vendors and consultants in their strategic planning activities with thoroughly integrated techno-economic analyses

Technical Analysis

Scenario & Sensitivity Analysis

Market Analysis

Economic & Financial Analysis

TM

TM

WiTech TEA Family of Business Case Analysis Tools

Based on real best practices

Equipped with well calibrated, WiMAX & LTE technology-related market, technical, and economic models

Presenting manageable Input and Output with meaningful correlations

Supporting an iterative way of working by design through an easy-to-use, dashboard-styled GUI LTE

TM

TM

TEA|WIMAX & TEA|LTE – Market Analysis

Evaluating the potential market for WiMAX & LTE services, considering:– Type of territory (dense urban,

urban, suburban/exurban, rural)

– Type of segment (residential/soho; small, middle, and large enterprises/institutions)

– Type of application model (fixed, nomadic, portable, and mobile)

– Type of service (technical characteristics and pricing policies)

– Churn impact

TEA|WIMAX & TEA|LTE – Technical Analysis

Preliminary dimensioning the WiMAX & LTE Access & Backhauling network infrastructures, considering:– Down-link and up-link capacity demand

(by market segment and rollout plan)– Aggregated total capacity– Existing backbone infrastructures– Type of wireless backhauling technology

(SDH, PDH, IP Ethernet, License exempt)– Base Station / Enhanced Node B & User

Terminal / User Equipment characterization (antenna gain, transmit power, diversity gain, losses, sector number, terminal type, MIMO)

– Path loss model (Cost-231, SUI, ECC-33, Log-Normal with/without Shadowing, Free Space)

– Compliance with standard WiMAX Forum’s Fixed & Mobile System Profiles (plus the possibility to define custom profiles)

TEA|WIMAX & TEA|LTE – Economic & Financial Analysis

Calculating all key economic & financial figures and evaluating KPI in the WiMAX & LTE initiative's Business Plan:– Capex & Opex (spectrum

license, connectivity, backhauling, BTS / eNB, UT / UE, ASN GW & CSN / EPC & CN, personnel, marketing, SG&A, etc.)

– Depreciations

– TCO (Total Cost of Ownership)

– Relevant Indicators (Gross Margin, EBITDA, EBIT, NPV, IRR, PBP, Shareholder value, etc.)

TEA|WIMAX & TEA|LTE – Scenario & Sensitivity Analysis

Enabling the user to fine-tune the WiMAX & LTE initiative’s business plan, in real-time and total privacy, and to view the results in an animated graphical format instantly for all analyses:– Market Analysis

– Technical Analysis

– Economic & Financial Analysis