Osservatorio Personal Broadband
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Transcript of Osservatorio Personal Broadband
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Osservatorio Personal Broadband
“Anywhere Network”: Opportunità di Mercato e Nuovi Scenari Tecnologici
Andrea Calcagno, Resp. Osservatorio e CEO & EVP WiTech SpA
Agenda
Saluto e introduzione, a cura del Presidente dr. Achille De Tommaso
Anywhere Network Concept. Andrea Calcagno, Resp. Osservatorio e CEO & EVP WiTech
4G Business Case for 2.6 GHz . Andrea Calcagno, Resp. Osservatorio e CEO & EVP WiTech
Case Study: Freemax, Wireless Broadband 4G Operator in Tuscany. Eric Le Bihan, President & CEO Fremax
Anywhere Network Concept
Agenda
• Anywhere Network Access
• Consumer Access Evolution
• Anywhere Access Experience
Anywhere
Anywhere Network Access Combines Two Lifestyles: Wired and Wireless
Source: Yankee Group, 2009
Consumer Access
Anywhere Network Access Will Grow To a Nearly $1 Trillion Business by 2012
Source: Yankee Group Link Data: 2008 Market Adoption Monitors & Forecasts: Consumer
Consumer Access
Global Wireless Broadband Connections Are Also Outpacing Wired Broadband
Source: Yankee Group Market Adoption Monitors & Forecasts
Anywhere experience
Anywhere Experiences Combine the Quality of Wired with the Ubiquity of Wireless
Source: Yankee Group, 2009
Anywhere experience
Source: Yankee Group, 2009
Anywhere Combines the Best of Both Wired and Wireless Access
Anywhere experience
Source: Yankee Group, 2009
Seamless Anywhere Experiences Need Aspects of Both Wired and Wireless Experiences
4G Business Case for 2.6 GHz
Agenda
• 4G Technologies
• 4G Deployment Model
• Business Case
• Conclusion
4G Technologies
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mobile WiMAXMobile WiMAX
3GPP3GPPIP E2E Network
IP E2E Network
CKT Switched Network
OFDMA - BasedCDMA - Based
IMT-Advanced
4G Technologies
2G/3G/3.5G
Next GenerationAccess Network
Data Overlay or Replacement
LTE or WiMAX
All-IP CoreNetwork
2G/3G/3.5GCore NetworkT1,E1
Increased BH Capacity
Conversion to All-IP core & Increased
Backhaul capacity
Comparable Capex – New Spectrum Need
Support for Legacy RAN
4G Technologies
Deployment Model
Hotspot coverage
Urban Coverage National Coverage
Home Base Station
Business Case
Scenario: Urban Coverage ( Roma, Milano, Napoli, Torino , Firenze)
4G Technology: LTE ( 10 MHz, FDD, MIMO 2x2) Band: 2.6 GHz
Urban Scenario Dense Urban Scenario
Target Market: ConsumerService Profile: Mobile Broadband (Flat Data and VoIP)
Operator Type: CLEC (COMPETITIVE LOCAL EXCHANGE CARRIER) or Green Field
Devices: Handset and Tablet
Business Case Tool: TEA|LTE
Business Case – Market Analysis
Roma
Summary
Business Case – Market Analysis|Service Profile
Handset 70% - Tablet 30%
Business Case – Market Analysis|Forecast
Roma|Total Users Forecast
Business Case – Market Analysis|Forecast
Roma|Lost Users Forecast
Business Case – Market Analysis|Forecast
Roma|Net Users Forecast
Business Case – Market Analysis|Forecast
Total Net Users Forecast
Business Case – Market Analysis|Forecast
Total Revenues
Business Case – Technical Analysis|Technology
4G Technology: LTE ( 10 MHz, FDD, MIMO 2x2) Band: 2.6 GHz
Business Case – Technical Analysis|Equipment
Base Station: eNode B Devices
Business Case – Technical Analysis|Perfomance
Business Case – Technical Analysis|Perfomance
Business Case – Technical Network Dimensioning
MMES-GW/P-GW
eNode B
UT
Business Case – Technical Network Dimensioning
MMES-GW/P-GW
eNode B
UT
e Node B with MW BH Urban 20%
Dense Urban 10%
DA RIFARE
Business Case – Roll Out
MMES-GW/P-GW
eNode B
UT
Business Case – EF Analysis
Personnel
Business Case – EF Analysis
CAPEX & OPEX
Business Case – EF Analysis
EBITDA > 0 3rd YearEBIT > 0 4th YearNet Income > 0 6th Year
Income Statement
Business Case – EF Analysis
Peak Funding 74 M€PBP 6.3 YearsNPV 18,45 M€CFCF 100 M€
Cash Flow
Business Case – Conclusion
ARPU
Customer Lifetime
CAPEX
OPEX
4G Business Case – Urban Coverage – CLEC/Green Field
Value Added ApplicationsAdvertising RevenuesBroadband Devices
New pricing modelMore devices for UserAppl. Open AccessBetter User Experience
No Legacy
Economies of scaleAll-IP NetworkSpectral EffinciencyVirtual Network Opportunity
FTTS
Flat Architecture
Backup
Slide sul Business Case Tool: TEA-LTE
WiMAX & LTE Project Life-Cycle (1)
As for any carrier-class Broadband Wireless Access infrastructure,
building a WiMAX & LTE network is and will remain a complex
undertaking, …
Business Case
Budget Allocation
Definitive Project
Network Building
Quality Assurance
Services Launch
Optimization
WiMAX & LTE Project Life-Cycle (2)
… and the initial planning phases are particularly critical to set a solid
foundation for the success of the initiative. …
Business Case
Budget Allocation
Definitive Project
Network Building
Quality Assurance
Services Launch
Optimization
A Holistic, Iterative Approach is Needed Since the Outset
Technical Analysis Dimensioning the WiMAX & LTE
Access and Backhauling network infrastructures, defining the
required bill of quantities
Market AnalysisEvaluating the potential market for WiMAX & LTE services,
identifying target markets, defining service profiles, and forecasting Revenues
Economic & Financial AnalysisCalculating Capex & Opex and
evaluating all WiMAX & LTE Business Plan’s KPI
Scenario & Sensitivity Analysis
Iterative fine-tuning of the WiMAX & LTE Business Plan, analyzing the influence of parameter and boundary condition changes
Taking into account all technology and business aspects to ensure an iterative alignment of business and technology strategies allowing to identify all main cost
drivers
WiTech TEA Family of Business Case Analysis Tools
LTE
Supporting 4G operators, vendors and consultants in their strategic planning activities with thoroughly integrated techno-economic analyses
Technical Analysis
Scenario & Sensitivity Analysis
Market Analysis
Economic & Financial Analysis
TM
TM
WiTech TEA Family of Business Case Analysis Tools
Based on real best practices
Equipped with well calibrated, WiMAX & LTE technology-related market, technical, and economic models
Presenting manageable Input and Output with meaningful correlations
Supporting an iterative way of working by design through an easy-to-use, dashboard-styled GUI LTE
TM
TM
TEA|WIMAX & TEA|LTE – Market Analysis
Evaluating the potential market for WiMAX & LTE services, considering:– Type of territory (dense urban,
urban, suburban/exurban, rural)
– Type of segment (residential/soho; small, middle, and large enterprises/institutions)
– Type of application model (fixed, nomadic, portable, and mobile)
– Type of service (technical characteristics and pricing policies)
– Churn impact
TEA|WIMAX & TEA|LTE – Technical Analysis
Preliminary dimensioning the WiMAX & LTE Access & Backhauling network infrastructures, considering:– Down-link and up-link capacity demand
(by market segment and rollout plan)– Aggregated total capacity– Existing backbone infrastructures– Type of wireless backhauling technology
(SDH, PDH, IP Ethernet, License exempt)– Base Station / Enhanced Node B & User
Terminal / User Equipment characterization (antenna gain, transmit power, diversity gain, losses, sector number, terminal type, MIMO)
– Path loss model (Cost-231, SUI, ECC-33, Log-Normal with/without Shadowing, Free Space)
– Compliance with standard WiMAX Forum’s Fixed & Mobile System Profiles (plus the possibility to define custom profiles)
TEA|WIMAX & TEA|LTE – Economic & Financial Analysis
Calculating all key economic & financial figures and evaluating KPI in the WiMAX & LTE initiative's Business Plan:– Capex & Opex (spectrum
license, connectivity, backhauling, BTS / eNB, UT / UE, ASN GW & CSN / EPC & CN, personnel, marketing, SG&A, etc.)
– Depreciations
– TCO (Total Cost of Ownership)
– Relevant Indicators (Gross Margin, EBITDA, EBIT, NPV, IRR, PBP, Shareholder value, etc.)
TEA|WIMAX & TEA|LTE – Scenario & Sensitivity Analysis
Enabling the user to fine-tune the WiMAX & LTE initiative’s business plan, in real-time and total privacy, and to view the results in an animated graphical format instantly for all analyses:– Market Analysis
– Technical Analysis
– Economic & Financial Analysis