Post on 31-Oct-2019
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Sezione Componentistica d’Impianto ANIMP XI Convegno, Villa Torretta, 5 novembre 2009
Il Mercato della Power Generation
Carlo Luzzatto
Condirettore Generale
Ansaldo Energia
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
!"The Value Chain
#"Market Forecasts
$"Projects and Players
Contents
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
!"The Value Chain
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Power Plant
Development
% Engineering, Procurement
and Construction of
complete power plants
providing the customers with
turn-key or customary
solutions
% Management of the
complete supply chain
% Execution of all site works,
assembly of components,
managing the installation
and commissioning.
% Gas Turbine for open and
combined cycles ranging
from 70MW up to 285 MW
% Steam Turbines ranging
from 50MW up to 1000MW
% Generators for steam, gas
and hydro turbines
% Spare Parts, Upgrading and
Repowering Solutions, Long
Term Service Agreements,
Training, Field Service,
Repairs, Remote Monitoring
& Diagnostics
% LTSA on AEN and third
parties installed fleet
% Plant configuration and
basic design
% Environmental Impact
Assessment
% Permitting
ServiceEquipment
Cash
Margins
EPC
Power Plant
Engineering,
Procurement and
Construction
Equipment
Manufacturing and
Supply
Service and
Maintenance
The Value Chain (I)
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Steam Turbines
Gas Turbines
Generator
HRSG
I&C
BOP & Aux
Civil Works
Transportation
Gas Turbines
Generator
I&C
BOP & Aux
Civil Works
Third Party SupplyAEN Supply
Steam Turbines
Generator
Boiler
I&C
BOP & Aux
Civil Works
Transportation
Thermal Power PlantOpen Cycle
Engineering
Engineering
Engineering
Combined Cycle
Partly AEN Supply
Transportation
EPC
and/or Equipment ManufacturerEquipment Manufacturer
The Value Chain (II)
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
#"Market Forecasts
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
(M!)
Source: AEN internal elaboration; * includes GT-based plants (i.e. Combined and Open Cycles)
GAS* STEAM NUCLEAR HYDRO WIND SOLAR Other REN&DG
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
• 2008 was a record year
in terms of orders for
most of the power
generation technologies,
especially Hydro,
Nuclear and Wind, while
Gas and Steam almost
repeated the outstanding
2007 performance
• In the medium term the
slight reduction of
investments in Hydro
and Steam will be
counterbalanced by
increasing investments
in other high CapEx
technologies like Solar
and Distributed
Generation
Power Generation Capacity Total Orders by Technologies (I)
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
(M!)
Source: AEN internal elaboration
EU AFRICA MIDDLE EAST Rest Of EUROPE/CIS RUSSIA LATIN AMERICA OCEANIA ASIAINDIA CHINA NORTH AMERICA
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
• Power generation marketin the last 2 years wasdominated by newSteam Coal plants inChina and India (> 380B! in new orders)
• EU and Middle Eastorders > 65 B!/yr in ’07-’08, driven by Gas Plants
• In the medium term astrong comeback ofNorth America isexpected due to themassive replacements ofaging plants, along withcurrent restructuring planin Russia and EasternEurope
• Investments reduction inChina and India shouldbe counterbalanced byincreasing expendituresin other EmergingEconomies in South-East Asia, Africa andLatin America
Power Generation Capacity Total Orders by Region (I)
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Source: AEN internal elaboration
(MW)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
BIOMASS/WTE FUEL CELLS GENSET GEOTHERMAL
MINI HYDRO SOLAR CSP SOLAR PV WIND
• Booming Renewables &Distributed GenerationMarket, mostly driven byWind installations in EU,North Am., China and India
• Considerable orders for SolarPV have started in 2006 dueto incentives in many EUcountries but, as price of thistechnology is quicklydecreasing, in the next tenyears Solar PV orders couldreach volumes close to thosefor Wind power.
• Concentrated Solar Power(CSP) and Biomass & Wasteto Energy markets are alsoestimated to show largegrowth rates in the closefuture
• More mature technologieslike Gensets, Mini Hydro andGeothermal should keeptheir historical market levelswhile innovative technologieslike Fuel Cells are notforecast to providesubstantial contributions atleast over the projectedperiod
Power Generation Capacity Renewables & Distr. Gen. Orders by Technology
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Before the
financial
crisis… Rate of investment in PG
increase significantlyNew Players
EuropeGlobal power orders to
fall by up to 50% in 2009
Consolidation,
Capex Cuts by Utilities,
Limited access to funding
What’s
happening
now…
Gas Turbine Market (50 and 60
Hz)
Gas Turbines for Power Generation
Application above 50 MW
1st Half ’08 1st Half ’09
34
GW
16
GW -53%
Impact of the Crisis
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Shaping of the European Market
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
$"Projects and Players
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
24.5 GW
27.5 GW
68 GW
120 GW
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Com
bin
ed C
ycle
s
Open Cycle
s
Steam
Com
bin
ed C
ycle
s
Open Cycle
s
Steam
Com
bin
ed C
ycle
s
Open Cycle
s
Steam
Com
bin
ed C
ycle
s
Open Cycle
s
Steam
Com
bin
ed C
ycle
s
Steam
Com
bin
ed C
ycle
s
Open Cycle
s
Com
bin
ed C
ycle
s
Open Cycle
s
Steam
AFRICA ASIA/FAR EAST CIS EUROPE ITALY LATINAMERICA
MIDDLE EAST
OEM to utilities
OEM to EPC
OEM EPC TK
47%
37%
16%
OEM EPC TK OEM to EPC OEM to utilities
Source: AEN internal elaboration
(*)
• New Fossil Power Plants/Equipment Commissioned and
Under Construction in 2005-2009 featuring GTs above
50MW and STs above 100MW
• 50 Hz Global market (excluding China and India)
Turnkey Attitude - Global Fossil Market*
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Combined Cycles
Open Cycles
Steam
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
RussiaRussian EPC (EMK Engineering Co. Ltd.,
Technopromexport, Atomstroyexport,
E4, Energokaskad, Stroytransgaz)
Far East and Iran
Chinese EPC (Shanghay Electric, Harbin
Power Equipment, DongFang Electric
Company, China National Machinery &
Equipment Import & Export Corporation
(CMEC), SEPCO III) and Korean EPC (
POSCO, Hyundai, Samsung, Doosan)
Africa
Harbin Power Equipment , Dongfang (CN),
SNC Lavalin (CA), Marubeni (JP),
ACS Cobra, Initec (ES),
Saipem (IT), Foster Wheeler (US)
Middle East
Chinese EPC (Harbin Power Equipment , Dongfang,
Shanghay Electric, Harbin Power Equipment),
Korean EPC ( POSCO, Hyundai, Samsung, Doosan, Hanwa),
Saipem (IT), Metka (GR)
Americas (only 50 Hz market)POSCO (KR), Hitachi (JP),
Iberinco, ACS Cobra, Initec (ES),
Tecnimont (IT),
Fluor, Foster Wheeler , Black&Veatch (US)
ItalyFWI
Techint
Tecnimont
Fata
Main EPC PlayersEU27+Turkey
A-Tec Power Plant Systems (AT),
MetKa (GR),
Tecnicas Reunidas, Iberinco (ES)
Gama Power Systems Eng , Enka (TR)
Fluor (US)
+ Major OEM’s playing EPC
(often in Consortium with BOP Partners)
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Source: AEN internal elaboration
1 1 , 5
1 0 , 4
2 5 , 2
4 , 1
2 , 8
1 5 , 5
1 4 , 1
9 , 1
0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
3 0
3 5
4 0
4 5
5 0
5 5
6 0
6 5
7 0
7 5
0
2
4
6
8
1 0
1 2
1 4
1 6
1 8
2 0
2 2
2 4
2 6
66
35
2125
2
INDIA
5
LATIN
AMERIC
A
34
MIDDLE
EAST
2,1
2
OCEANI
A
10
Rest Of
Europe
& CIS
4
RUSSIA
GW
Open Cycles - 300MW Block Equivalent
11
15
AFRICA ASIA
9,4
3
CHINA
5
14
Combined Cycles - 400MW Block Equivalent
26
18
4
38
EU
• Combined and
Open Cycles
Projects Only
• Projects on
Turnkey EPC
basis Only
• 50Hz Countries
Only
• Gas Turbines
above 50MW
Market Opportunities for EPC Projects (Gas Fired only)
Orders 2010-2014
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Russia
2009 orders
-Adler (420MW CC), Gazenergoprom, TK Tek Mosenergo
-Yuzhnouralsk (400MW CC), OGK3, TK Atomstroyexport
2010-12
-Astrakhan (420 MW CC), Gazprom, TK
-Dzhubingskaia (210 MW CC), Gazprom/Gazenergoprom, TK
Far East and Iran
2009 orders
-Bangladesh, Sylhet (150MW OC), Bangladesh Power Develp Board,
TK Shanghay Electric
2010-2012
-Bangladesh, Siddhirganji (300MW OC), Electricity Generation Comp
any of Bangladesh, TK
-Iran, (800MW CC), Kave Khuzestan Aluminum Co, TK
Africa
2010-12
-Algeria, Sousse (400MW CC), STEG, IPP Peaking Plant
-Algeria, Ras Djanet (2x400MW CC), Sonelgas, TK
-South Africa (4x150MW OC), GdF Suez, IPP Peaking Plant
Middle East
2009 orders
-UAE , Shuweithat (1500MW CC), GDF, TK Marubeni
-Syria, Deir-Ali 2 (800MW CC) , PEEGT, TK Metka
2010-12
-UAE , Hassyan I, II, III (3x1500MW CC), DEWA, TK
-Kuwait, Az Zour North I (1500MW CC), MEW, TKAmericas (only 50 Hz market)
2009 orders
-Chile, Puerto Coronel 1(370MW ST), Colbun SA, TK
Tecnimont
2010-12
-Chile, Punta Alcade (2x375MW ST), Endesa Chile, TK??
Italy
2009 orders
-Aprilia (800MW CC), Sorgenia, TK Ansaldo Energia
-Torino Nord (400MW CC), Iride Energia, Package Bid
2010-12
- Ciclo Combinato 800MW, TK
- Ciclo Combinato 400 MW, TK
- Ciclo USC Vapore 3x660 MW, TK
-- ……
-- ……
Sample of Projects 2009-2012EU27+Turkey
2009 orders
-Belgium, Tessenderlo (400MW CC), T-Power 30%Siemens), TK Siemens
-UK, Pembroke (2000MW CC), RWE N-Power, TK Alstom
-Netherlands, Enecogen Rotterdam (800MW CC), Enecogen-Dong, TK
Siemens
2010-12
-France, Fos Sur Mer (420MW CC), Electrabel, TK
-Greece, Florina2 (330MW ST), PPC, TK
-Poland, Opole (2x470MW ST), BOT Electr., TK
-Poland, Siekierki (400MW ST), Vattenfall, TK
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Equipment vs. Turn-Key Approach to Projects
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
AEN Profile(Back-Up)
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
New Units
EPC EquipmentService Nuclear
• A worldwide recognized brand in Power Generation with an installed capacity of more than
170,000 MW over 1,700 projects completed, in over 90 countries
• Headquartered in Genoa (Italy) with major regional offices in USA, Africa, Gulf, India and
about 3,000 employees
’08 Orders: 1.371M!
’08 Revenues: 987M!
Ansaldo Energia, a Finmeccanica company, is a distinguished player in the energy
industry, providing reliable and flexible solutions across a complete and innovative
product portfolio
’08 Orders: 640M!
’08 Revenues: 315M!’08Orders: 41M!
’08 Revenues: 31M!
Company Profile
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
MAIN COMPONENTS (OEM) SERVICE OEM &
Product Portfolio
POWER PLANTS
Gas Turbines
Steam Turbines
Generators
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
11,425 MW
31,778 MW33,882 MW
99,372 MW
Hydroelectric
Power Plants
45,748 MW
Thermoelectric
Power Plants
130,709 MW
Gas Turbines
25,964 MW
Turbogenerators
106,000 MVA
Hydrogenerators
26,506 MVA
Steam Turbines
89,035 MW
Installed power worldwide: 176,457 MW (As of Dec. 08)