Il Mercato della Power Generation -...

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Sezione Componentistica d’Impianto ANIMP XI Convegno, Villa Torretta, 5 novembre 2009

Il Mercato della Power Generation

Carlo Luzzatto

Condirettore Generale

Ansaldo Energia




!"The Value Chain

#"Market Forecasts

$"Projects and Players

Contents




!"The Value Chain




Power Plant

Development

% Engineering, Procurement

and Construction of

complete power plants

providing the customers with

turn-key or customary

solutions

% Management of the

complete supply chain

% Execution of all site works,

assembly of components,

managing the installation

and commissioning.

% Gas Turbine for open and

combined cycles ranging

from 70MW up to 285 MW

% Steam Turbines ranging

from 50MW up to 1000MW

% Generators for steam, gas

and hydro turbines

% Spare Parts, Upgrading and

Repowering Solutions, Long

Term Service Agreements,

Training, Field Service,

Repairs, Remote Monitoring

& Diagnostics

% LTSA on AEN and third

parties installed fleet

% Plant configuration and

basic design

% Environmental Impact

Assessment

% Permitting

ServiceEquipment

Cash

Margins

EPC

Power Plant

Engineering,

Procurement and

Construction

Equipment

Manufacturing and

Supply

Service and

Maintenance

The Value Chain (I)




Steam Turbines

Gas Turbines

Generator

HRSG

I&C

BOP & Aux

Civil Works

Transportation

Gas Turbines

Generator

I&C

BOP & Aux

Civil Works

Third Party SupplyAEN Supply

Steam Turbines

Generator

Boiler

I&C

BOP & Aux

Civil Works

Transportation

Thermal Power PlantOpen Cycle

Engineering

Engineering

Engineering

Combined Cycle

Partly AEN Supply

Transportation

EPC

and/or Equipment ManufacturerEquipment Manufacturer

The Value Chain (II)




#"Market Forecasts




(M!)

Source: AEN internal elaboration; * includes GT-based plants (i.e. Combined and Open Cycles)

GAS* STEAM NUCLEAR HYDRO WIND SOLAR Other REN&DG

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

• 2008 was a record year

in terms of orders for

most of the power

generation technologies,

especially Hydro,

Nuclear and Wind, while

Gas and Steam almost

repeated the outstanding

2007 performance

• In the medium term the

slight reduction of

investments in Hydro

and Steam will be

counterbalanced by

increasing investments

in other high CapEx

technologies like Solar

and Distributed

Generation

Power Generation Capacity Total Orders by Technologies (I)




(M!)

Source: AEN internal elaboration

EU AFRICA MIDDLE EAST Rest Of EUROPE/CIS RUSSIA LATIN AMERICA OCEANIA ASIAINDIA CHINA NORTH AMERICA

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

• Power generation marketin the last 2 years wasdominated by newSteam Coal plants inChina and India (> 380B! in new orders)

• EU and Middle Eastorders > 65 B!/yr in ’07-’08, driven by Gas Plants

• In the medium term astrong comeback ofNorth America isexpected due to themassive replacements ofaging plants, along withcurrent restructuring planin Russia and EasternEurope

• Investments reduction inChina and India shouldbe counterbalanced byincreasing expendituresin other EmergingEconomies in South-East Asia, Africa andLatin America

Power Generation Capacity Total Orders by Region (I)





(MW)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

BIOMASS/WTE FUEL CELLS GENSET GEOTHERMAL

MINI HYDRO SOLAR CSP SOLAR PV WIND

• Booming Renewables &Distributed GenerationMarket, mostly driven byWind installations in EU,North Am., China and India

• Considerable orders for SolarPV have started in 2006 dueto incentives in many EUcountries but, as price of thistechnology is quicklydecreasing, in the next tenyears Solar PV orders couldreach volumes close to thosefor Wind power.

• Concentrated Solar Power(CSP) and Biomass & Wasteto Energy markets are alsoestimated to show largegrowth rates in the closefuture

• More mature technologieslike Gensets, Mini Hydro andGeothermal should keeptheir historical market levelswhile innovative technologieslike Fuel Cells are notforecast to providesubstantial contributions atleast over the projectedperiod

Power Generation Capacity Renewables & Distr. Gen. Orders by Technology




Before the

financial

crisis… Rate of investment in PG

increase significantlyNew Players

EuropeGlobal power orders to

fall by up to 50% in 2009

Consolidation,

Capex Cuts by Utilities,

Limited access to funding

What’s

happening

now…

Gas Turbine Market (50 and 60

Hz)

Gas Turbines for Power Generation

Application above 50 MW

1st Half ’08 1st Half ’09

34

GW

16

GW -53%

Impact of the Crisis




Shaping of the European Market




$"Projects and Players




24.5 GW

27.5 GW

68 GW

120 GW

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Com

bin

ed C

ycle

s

Open Cycle

s

Steam

Com

bin

ed C

ycle

s

Open Cycle

s

Steam

Com

bin

ed C

ycle

s

Open Cycle

s

Steam

Com

bin

ed C

ycle

s

Open Cycle

s

Steam

Com

bin

ed C

ycle

s

Steam

Com

bin

ed C

ycle

s

Open Cycle

s

Com

bin

ed C

ycle

s

Open Cycle

s

Steam

AFRICA ASIA/FAR EAST CIS EUROPE ITALY LATINAMERICA

MIDDLE EAST

OEM to utilities

OEM to EPC

OEM EPC TK

47%

37%

16%

OEM EPC TK OEM to EPC OEM to utilities


(*)

• New Fossil Power Plants/Equipment Commissioned and

Under Construction in 2005-2009 featuring GTs above

50MW and STs above 100MW

• 50 Hz Global market (excluding China and India)

Turnkey Attitude - Global Fossil Market*

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Combined Cycles

Open Cycles

Steam




RussiaRussian EPC (EMK Engineering Co. Ltd.,

Technopromexport, Atomstroyexport,

E4, Energokaskad, Stroytransgaz)

Far East and Iran

Chinese EPC (Shanghay Electric, Harbin

Power Equipment, DongFang Electric

Company, China National Machinery &

Equipment Import & Export Corporation

(CMEC), SEPCO III) and Korean EPC (

POSCO, Hyundai, Samsung, Doosan)

Africa

Harbin Power Equipment , Dongfang (CN),

SNC Lavalin (CA), Marubeni (JP),

ACS Cobra, Initec (ES),

Saipem (IT), Foster Wheeler (US)

Middle East

Chinese EPC (Harbin Power Equipment , Dongfang,

Shanghay Electric, Harbin Power Equipment),

Korean EPC ( POSCO, Hyundai, Samsung, Doosan, Hanwa),

Saipem (IT), Metka (GR)

Americas (only 50 Hz market)POSCO (KR), Hitachi (JP),

Iberinco, ACS Cobra, Initec (ES),

Tecnimont (IT),

Fluor, Foster Wheeler , Black&Veatch (US)

ItalyFWI

Techint

Tecnimont

Fata

Main EPC PlayersEU27+Turkey

A-Tec Power Plant Systems (AT),

MetKa (GR),

Tecnicas Reunidas, Iberinco (ES)

Gama Power Systems Eng , Enka (TR)

Fluor (US)

+ Major OEM’s playing EPC

(often in Consortium with BOP Partners)





1 1 , 5

1 0 , 4

2 5 , 2

4 , 1

2 , 8

1 5 , 5

1 4 , 1

9 , 1

0

5

1 0

1 5

2 0

2 5

3 0

3 5

4 0

4 5

5 0

5 5

6 0

6 5

7 0

7 5

0

2

4

6

8

1 0

1 2

1 4

1 6

1 8

2 0

2 2

2 4

2 6

66

35

2125

2

INDIA

5

LATIN

AMERIC

A

34

MIDDLE

EAST

2,1

2

OCEANI

A

10

Rest Of

Europe

& CIS

4

RUSSIA

GW

Open Cycles - 300MW Block Equivalent

11

15

AFRICA ASIA

9,4

3

CHINA

5

14

Combined Cycles - 400MW Block Equivalent

26

18

4

38

EU

• Combined and

Open Cycles

Projects Only

• Projects on

Turnkey EPC

basis Only

• 50Hz Countries

Only

• Gas Turbines

above 50MW

Market Opportunities for EPC Projects (Gas Fired only)

Orders 2010-2014




Russia

2009 orders

-Adler (420MW CC), Gazenergoprom, TK Tek Mosenergo

-Yuzhnouralsk (400MW CC), OGK3, TK Atomstroyexport

2010-12

-Astrakhan (420 MW CC), Gazprom, TK

-Dzhubingskaia (210 MW CC), Gazprom/Gazenergoprom, TK

Far East and Iran

2009 orders

-Bangladesh, Sylhet (150MW OC), Bangladesh Power Develp Board,

TK Shanghay Electric

2010-2012

-Bangladesh, Siddhirganji (300MW OC), Electricity Generation Comp

any of Bangladesh, TK

-Iran, (800MW CC), Kave Khuzestan Aluminum Co, TK

Africa

2010-12

-Algeria, Sousse (400MW CC), STEG, IPP Peaking Plant

-Algeria, Ras Djanet (2x400MW CC), Sonelgas, TK

-South Africa (4x150MW OC), GdF Suez, IPP Peaking Plant

Middle East

2009 orders

-UAE , Shuweithat (1500MW CC), GDF, TK Marubeni

-Syria, Deir-Ali 2 (800MW CC) , PEEGT, TK Metka

2010-12

-UAE , Hassyan I, II, III (3x1500MW CC), DEWA, TK

-Kuwait, Az Zour North I (1500MW CC), MEW, TKAmericas (only 50 Hz market)

2009 orders

-Chile, Puerto Coronel 1(370MW ST), Colbun SA, TK

Tecnimont

2010-12

-Chile, Punta Alcade (2x375MW ST), Endesa Chile, TK??

Italy

2009 orders

-Aprilia (800MW CC), Sorgenia, TK Ansaldo Energia

-Torino Nord (400MW CC), Iride Energia, Package Bid

2010-12

- Ciclo Combinato 800MW, TK

- Ciclo Combinato 400 MW, TK

- Ciclo USC Vapore 3x660 MW, TK

-- ……

-- ……

Sample of Projects 2009-2012EU27+Turkey

2009 orders

-Belgium, Tessenderlo (400MW CC), T-Power 30%Siemens), TK Siemens

-UK, Pembroke (2000MW CC), RWE N-Power, TK Alstom

-Netherlands, Enecogen Rotterdam (800MW CC), Enecogen-Dong, TK

Siemens

2010-12

-France, Fos Sur Mer (420MW CC), Electrabel, TK

-Greece, Florina2 (330MW ST), PPC, TK

-Poland, Opole (2x470MW ST), BOT Electr., TK

-Poland, Siekierki (400MW ST), Vattenfall, TK




Source: Frost & Sullivan

Equipment vs. Turn-Key Approach to Projects




AEN Profile(Back-Up)




New Units

EPC EquipmentService Nuclear

• A worldwide recognized brand in Power Generation with an installed capacity of more than

170,000 MW over 1,700 projects completed, in over 90 countries

• Headquartered in Genoa (Italy) with major regional offices in USA, Africa, Gulf, India and

about 3,000 employees

’08 Orders: 1.371M!

’08 Revenues: 987M!

Ansaldo Energia, a Finmeccanica company, is a distinguished player in the energy

industry, providing reliable and flexible solutions across a complete and innovative

product portfolio

’08 Orders: 640M!

’08 Revenues: 315M!’08Orders: 41M!

’08 Revenues: 31M!

Company Profile




MAIN COMPONENTS (OEM) SERVICE OEM &

Product Portfolio

POWER PLANTS

Gas Turbines

Steam Turbines

Generators




11,425 MW

31,778 MW33,882 MW

99,372 MW

Hydroelectric

Power Plants

45,748 MW

Thermoelectric

Power Plants

130,709 MW

Gas Turbines

25,964 MW

Turbogenerators

106,000 MVA

Hydrogenerators

26,506 MVA

Steam Turbines

89,035 MW

Installed power worldwide: 176,457 MW (As of Dec. 08)

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