METODOLOGIE E TECNOLOGIE PER LO SVILUPPO DI · PDF fileMETODOLOGIE E TECNOLOGIE PER LO...

Analisi di Mercato

1° Incontro - Napoli, 24 Maggio 2014

Scuola Politecnica e delle Scienze di Base

Piazzale V. Tecchio 80, 80125 Napoli

METODOLOGIE E TECNOLOGIE PER LO

SVILUPPO DI UN NUOVO VELIVOLO

2

Perchè l’Analisi di Mercato

Quanto costa e quanto tempo ci vuole per

sviluppare un nuovo velivolo ?

US$ 10 Billion stimati nel 2003

US$ 16 Billion stimati nel 2011

11 anni dal lancio del programma alla prima consegna

3

Perchè l’Analisi di Mercato

Fornire al management aziendale due importanti elementi per la

redazione di un business plan:

Stima del numero di velivoli che sarà possibile vendere

Prezzo di mercato del velivolo

Definire il requisito di mercato: capacità, prestazioni, ….

Supportare la commercializzazione del velivolo

Collaborare alla redazione del piano strategico aziendale

4

Product Cycle in Aeronautic

Basic Research

Technology Development

Technology Validation

Product Definition

Design and Development

Production

Demonstrators

-10 -5 0

Product Test & Evaluation

+20+10

Support

Years (Indicative)

Product Development, Production and SupportResearch and Technology Acquisition

Prototypes

Feasibility

5

Market Segmentation – Commercial Aircraft

REGIONALBUSINESS

JETMAINLINER

Turboprop Jet

Small: up to 60 seats

Medium: 60-90 seats

Large: 90+ seats

Narrow

Body

Wide

Body

Single aisle Twin aisle

FREIGHTER

Medium/Long

Range

Large

New

Converted

Small

Medium

Large

6

Market Segmentation – Commercial Aircraft

*** Twin aisle – More than 6 abreast

** Single aisle – Up to 6 abreast

* Single aisle – Up to 5 abreast

Seats

Range (Km)

Regional *

100

150

200

250

300

50

350

Narrow Body **

Wide Body ***

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 15000

500

7

Market Drivers and Key Success Factors

Product-related KSF Manufacturer KSF

Product technical performance

Flexibility / versatility /

modularity

Reliability

Support capability

Price

Maturity level

Design/development

capabilities

Manufacturing capabilities

Program management

capabilities

Financial capabilities

1

2

3

4

5

6

Geographical KSF

Commercial capabilities

Image / references

Offsets

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

KE

Y S

UC

CE

SS

FA

CT

OR

S

New Commercial Aircraft Demand

Economic Growth

Demographic & Social Trends

Environmental Constraints

Travel Demand

Airlines Profits

Fuel Price

Network Evolution

Fleet Obsolescence

Airlines Demand Trend

Technology Innovation

1

2

3

4

6

7

8

9MA

RK

ET

DR

IVE

RS

5 10

8

Real GDP growth

Market Drivers: Economic Growth

Source: Bombardier – MF 2013

9

Traffic and Economy

Market Drivers: Economic Growth vs. Traffic

Source: Boeing – CMO 2013

Air Travel and Economic Growth are directly related

10

Market Drivers: Traffic Demand

Air Travel will double in the next 15 years

World Air Travel has grown 5% per year since 1980

RPK = Revenues x Passengers x Kilometers

Source: Airbus – GMF 2013

11

Market Drivers: Traffic Demand

Air travel has proved to be resilient to external shocks

67% growth over the last 10 years


12

Market Drivers: Traffic Demand by Geographical Area

Air Travel growth varies by Region

Source: Boeing – CMO 2013

RPK Billion

13

World urban population to reach 5 billion by 2030

Market Drivers: Demographic Trends


More people, more wealth, bigger cities growing traffic

14

Fuel saving, noise and pollution

Market Drivers: Environmental Constraints

What A320neo offers in terms of environmental benefit


15

Global Commercial Airlines Profitability

Market Drivers: Airlines Profits

Wo

rld

Air

lines

Fin

anci

al N

et R

esu

lts

B$

‘09

Ord

ers

(Nu

mb

er

of

airc

raft)

EBIT = Earning Before Interests and Taxes

Higher profits, more orders

16

Market Drivers: Fuel Price

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

No

min

al D

oll

ars

Per

Barr

el

Arab Oil Embargo

Iranian Revolution; Shah deposed

Iran-Iraq War Begins

Iraq invades Kuwait

Gulf War Ends

Price spike on Iraq war, rapid demand increases, constrained OPEC capacity, low inventories

Asian economic crisis; oil oversupply

9/11

Oil Prices (Imported Refiners Acquisition Cost)

Fuel prices amount to 30-40% of total DOC

17

Market Drivers: Fuel Price

Oil Prices Forecast

Oil prices expected to remain elevated and volatile

driving demand for more efficient aircraft


18

Average Seat Capacity of new ordered Regional a/c

Market Drivers: Airlines Demand Trend

Regional aircraft size is increasing

19

Market Analysis Methodology

ECONOMY

ANALYSIS AND

FORECAST

TRAFFIC DEMAND BY AIRLINE AND BY ITINERARY

TRAFFIC

ANALYSIS AND

FORECAST

NETWORK

ANALYSIS AND

FORECAST

RETIREMENT

FORECAST

POTENTIAL & TARGET

MARKET

MARKET SHARE

COMPETITION

KEY

SUCCESS

FACTORS

20

Market Analysis Methodology

Main assumptions

GDP growth rate by area

Traffic growth by area

Demographic trend

Crude Oil price

Aircraft size growth

Aircraft Retirement age

Environment (& Congestion) Issues/Fees

……

21

Potential Market Forecast

Fleet evolution and New aircraft demand

So

urc

e: B

oe

ing

–C

MO

20

13


http://www.airbus-group.com/airbusgroup/int/en.html

22




http://www.bombardier.com/en

23



Source: Embraer – MO 2012

6795

new a/c2515

new

a/c

23490

new a/c

24


Deliveries by year

$ 1395 B’11 [33500 a/c]

$ 2720 B’11 [56670 a/c]

Last 20 years delivery value

Next 20 years delivery value

Narrow

Body

RegionalCargo B-jet

Wide

Body

Narrow

Body

RegionalCargo B-jet

Wide

Body

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031

ValueUnit CargoWide BodyNarrow BodyRegionalBjetValue (US$ billion, 2011 e.c.)

Despite the ups and downs, the demand is increasingin all segments

In the next twenty years new aircraft deliveries areexpected to be higher both in value and in unitcompared to past 20 years.

25

Regional Aviation Market

Highlights

Over the last 20 years approx 6800 regional aircraft delivered

(2850 turboprop & 3900 jet)

Average age of regional fleet is 16 years (21 years for Turboprop

and 13 for jet)

Current regional fleet operated by scheduled airlines amounts to

around 8300 units

Factors of the turboprop airliners revival include growing air traffic,

continuing high fuel prices, and the need for regional carriers to

reduce operating costs

The total number of city-pairs served by regional aircraft has

increased by 13% over the last decade

Potential market of approx 9000-10000 regional aircraft over the

next 20 year

26

20

30

50

70

TP

30

50

70

90

> 100

JET Regional Jet

4500 a/c

Regional

Turboprop

3800 a/c

Current Fleet

Nord America

Latin America

Europe

Africa

Australasia

Russia & CIS

China

TP

Nord America

Latin America

Europe

Africa

Australasia

Russia & CIS

China

JET

By seats By area


Total a/c: 8300 a/c

27


Historical Deliveries

1993-2013 deliveries: 6750 units (2850 turboprop & 3900 jet)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Un

its

JET TP

28


The competition

T-prop

Small: up to 60 seats Medium: 60-90 seats Large: 90+ seats

Jet T-prop Jet T-prop Jet

ATR 42

MA60/600

Emb145

CRJ200

CRJ700/900

EMB170/175

ARJ21

ATR 72

Q400

SSJ100

CRJ1000

EMB190/195

MRJ70

EMB175 E2

NewTP

MA700

Q400X

Cseries

MRJ90

EMB190 &

EMB195 E2

NewTP

On

production

Under

development

or study

Higher competition in the jet a/c, negligible in the turboprop a/c

29


Main Turboprop orders

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

Un

its

ATR Q400

* JAN-APR1993-2014 orders: 778 ATRs versus 422 Q400s

Total a/c life orders: 1345 ATRs versus 497 Q400

30


TP aircraft orders trend and Crude Oil Price

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Cru

de O

il P

rice –

US

$/b

ar

Un

its

Fuel prices condition the demand

31


DOC - Direct Operating Costs

Cash

DOC

Typical split of DOC for a

60-120 seat a/c in Western

Environment

Fuel

Cockpit/cabin crew

Maintenance

Landing / Navigation Fees

Ground handling

MTOW, Speed,

Block Time, Seats

Block Fuel

Aircraft

CharacteristicsImpact on

100%OEW, Speed,

Engine

MTOW,

Seats

30-35%Depreciation / Interest /

Insurance

A/C Price, interest rate,

loan period, residual

value, insurance rate

15%

10%

10%

30-35%

Capital

Costs

32


Operating Costs Requirement

ATR42

ATR72

CRJ900

CRJ700

Q400

ERJ175

SSJ100

ERJ190

ERJ195

CS100

CS300

MRJ70

MRJ90

Q300

EMB175EV

EMB190EV

EMB195EV

EMBStretch EV

Cash

DO

C/s

eat

(%)

Cash DOC/ trip (%)

Cash DOC COMPARISON @ 130$/Bar Oil Price300 NM Stage Length - Rest Of World Environment - Single Class

0%

0%

-% +%

+%

-%Next TP generation

Current TP generation

Next RJ generation

Current RJ

generation

OEMs need to develop a new generation of TP aircraft in order to

maintain current economics saving towards regional jet

33


Market Share

COMPETITORS

FACTORS

AFFECTING THE

CUSTOMER CHOICE

CAPTURE FOR

EACH COMPETITOR

By geographical area

By year

34

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