IMPATTI DELLA CRISI ECONOMICA IN ASIA

CENTRALEAzerbaigian, Kazakistan e

Uzbekistan

Ilaria RegaRavenna, 5 maggio 2009

Che cosa comporta la crisi economica per le economie

degli Stati ex-Sovietici?Interruzione della crescita

economica: stagnazione o recessione virtualmente per tutte le economia nella regione post-Sovietica

Netto aumento della povertà da reddito, dell’ineguaglianza e delle altre dimensioni della povertà

Transizione e crescita: il caso della Russia

• Andamento del PIL a forma di “U”, riflettendo:

Transizione recessione (1990-1996)

Crisi finanziaria russa (1998)

Ripresa crescita (1998-2008)

1990 real GDP = 100

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Transizione e crescita in Asia Centrale

• Maggior crescita ha bisogno di controbilanciare il trend della popolazione

• Uzbekistan: lieve declino/forte ripresa

• Kazakistan: netto declino/forte ripresa

Source: CIS Statistical Committee

1990 real GDP = 100

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180 Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Uzbekistan

Problemi della crescita per la riduzione della

povertà (“U invertita”)

Millions living in absolute income poverty in FSU, Turkey, Balkans, new EU member states. World Bank data, using Millions living in absolute income poverty in FSU, Turkey, Balkans, new EU member states. World Bank data, using 2005 PPP exchange rates.2005 PPP exchange rates.

158

38

162

55

197

64

214

77

183

64

142

47

0

250

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005

Living below $4.30/day Living below $2.15/day

Crescita, Povertà e Sviluppo umano

• Riduzione nella povertà in termini di reddito è buona ma lo sviluppo umano è meglio

• La dimensione della povertà non in termini di reddito è importante (salute, educazione, eguaglianza, libertà di scelta, opportunità)

Incremento della povertà dopo la crisi finanziaria russa del

199874%

95%

77%

89%

56%

89%

56%66%

48%

63%

29%42%

0%

100%

Moldova

Armenia

Uzbekistan

Ukraine

Georgia

Russia

1996 poverty rate1999 poverty rate

Absolute income poverty, measured against PPP $ 4.30/day Absolute income poverty, measured against PPP $ 4.30/day threshold. World Bank data.threshold. World Bank data.

Previsioni sulla crescita:

4,6%

1,7%

-2,0%

8,1%

5,6%

-3,5%

7,6%

4,0%

-6,0%

6,0%7,0%

-4,0%

1,3%0,5%

-4,5%

-12%

0%

12%

Turkey Russia Ukraine Romania Hungary

2007 2008 2009

Annual GDP growth. IMF, JP Morgan publicationsAnnual GDP growth. IMF, JP Morgan publications

Contagio:meccanismo di trasmissione

• Shocks commerciali Prezzi (in termini di effetti commerciali) Quantità (riduzione della domanda di esportazione)

• Gap finanziari difficili da recuperare

• Rimesse in calo

Shock commerciale: principali indicatori nei mercati chiave

-10% -9%-8%

-15%

0%

EU Russia USA

Change in industrial output, October 2008 – February 2009 (year-on-year)

Sources: Eurostat, EIU, national statistical offices

Termini dello shock commerciale:collasso prezzi delle

esportazioni• Questo trend è buono

per i Paesi importatori di cibo ed energia, ma…

• La maggior parte degli Stati ex-Sovietici sono esportatori di materie prime:

Energia (Azerbaijian, Kazakistan)

Metalli (Kazakistan, Kyrgystan, Tagjikistan)

Cibo (Ucraina, Moldova, Kazakistan)

40

60

80

100

2008M6

2008M7

2008M8

2008M9

2008M10

2008M11

2008M12

2009M1

2009M2

FoodMetalsEnergy

World price trends (June 2008=100)

IMF dataIMF data

Rifinanziamento: Attuale equilibrio dei conti (2008)

41%

22%

6% 5%

-6%-12% -13% -15%

-18%-25%-30%

0%

30%

60%

AZBUZB

RUSKAZ

UKRKYR

ARMTAJ

MOL

GEO

Shares of 2008 GDP. Source: EIU.Shares of 2008 GDP. Source: EIU.

Significant refinancing issues could be Significant refinancing issues could be present. Much depends on FDI, present. Much depends on FDI,

concessional finance (IMF)concessional finance (IMF)

Significant refinancing Significant refinancing issues are presentissues are present

No refinancing issues

Pagamenti: chi è più a rischio?

46%

38%

19%

10% 9% 7% 5%

0%

50%

Remittances as % of GDP. Source: Remittances as % of GDP. Source: WorldWorld

Settori in cui la Russia gioca uno speciale ruolo economico nei Paesi ex-

Sovietici

$10

$38

$21

$2

$11

$1

$15

$0

$40

Merchandiseimports

Remittances Serviceexports

FDI stock

19992008

In billions. Source: Central Bank of Russia. 2008 data are preliminary.In billions. Source: Central Bank of Russia. 2008 data are preliminary.

Dati della Banca Mondiale: alti tassi di

povertà in Asia Centrale

39%

95%

22%

90%

22%

90%

1%

50%

0%

100%

Uzbekistan Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan

PPP$1.25/day

PPP$4.30/day

2005 World Bank data, based on 2005 PPP exchange rates2005 World Bank data, based on 2005 PPP exchange rates

Tassi elevati di consumo di acqua

5324

2351 22921983 1901

1654

977

548 528 485 399 291173 172

0

6000

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Uzbekistan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

USAEgypt

Turkey

Russia

China

Nepal

Israel

Morocco

Mongolia

In cubic metres per annum. From various years, 1998-2007. In cubic metres per annum. From various years, 1998-2007. Source: (http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/dbase/index.stmSource: (http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/dbase/index.stm

Dovuto all’irrigazione, non all’uso familiare

41%

28%

23%

18%

14%

0%

50%

Tajikistan Turkmenistan Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Kazakhstan

2004 data. Source: UNDP Human Development Report Office2004 data. Source: UNDP Human Development Report Office

Ma le riserve di acqua del periodo 2008-2009 sono al di

sotto della norma

-41%

-9%

-37%

-8%

-38%

-12%

-39%

-9%

-39%

-8%

-39%

-8%

-40%

-9%

-40%

-10%

-40%

-13%

-40%

-9%

-50%

0%

May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.

Toktogul (KYR) Nurek (TAJ)

2008-2009 data, relative to monthly averages from 1991-2007. 2008-2009 data, relative to monthly averages from 1991-2007. Source: SIC-ICWC, UNDP calculations.Source: SIC-ICWC, UNDP calculations.

-17%

-8%

-20%

0%

KYR TAJ

12%

-2%

10%

-4%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

KYR* TAJ

20072008

Electric power generation, 2008Electric power generation, 2008

Lo shock Elettrico ha bloccato Lo shock Elettrico ha bloccato la crescita economicala crescita economica

Change in industrial outputChange in industrial output

Source: National statistical Source: National statistical officesoffices

* Kumtor production not included* Kumtor production not included

Come sono aumentati i costi dell’energia

$100

$145

$240

$0

$300

2007 2008 2009

$0,005

$0,016

$0,035

$0,00

$0,04

2002 2009 Cost-rec.

Price (per 1000 cubic metres) of gas importsPrice (per 1000 cubic metres) of gas imports from Uzbekistan, purchased by TAJ, KYRfrom Uzbekistan, purchased by TAJ, KYR

Per kWh. World Bank dataPer kWh. World Bank data

Imported gas costsImported gas costs Average household Average household electricity tariffs (TAJ)electricity tariffs (TAJ)

..E il prezzo del cibo rimane alto…..

Tajikistan:1,5 milioni di

persone vivono condizioni alimentari disagiate

-Più di 650,00 richiedono un intervento immediato.

KyrgyzstanCirca un milione a rischio

di carenze alimentari

Food price trends (January 2007 = 100)

100

180Global

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

20072008 2009

Sources: FAO, national statistical offices; UNDP calculationsSources: FAO, national statistical offices; UNDP calculations

Portando alla crescita dell’inflazione

10%

13%

21%

11%

15%

26%

0%

30%

Consumer price inflation Food price inflation

200620072008

Average annual inflation rates. Source: National statistical officeAverage annual inflation rates. Source: National statistical office

TajikistanTajikistan

Diminuzione dei flusso di pagamenpossibili are d’azione

per migliorare la situazione76%

40%

82%

55%62%

43%

10%

25%

-29%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

2008:Q1 2008:Q2 2008:Q3 2008:Q4 2009:Q1*

TajikistanKyrgyzstan

Sources: National Banks of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan; IMF. 2009:Q1 data are for January-February

Allo stesso modo i prezzi di esportazione ed i tassi di cambio del

Tajikistan’s sono crollati

Global price trends: August 2008 = 100

0

20

40

60

80

100

Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March

Aluminium

Cotton

3.4

3.9

Source: OANDASource: OANDASource: IMFSource: IMF

Tre possibili aree d’azione per migliorare la situazione

• Acqua e energia: Diminuire le tensioni dovute alla scarsità d’acqua

• Diminuzione del tasso d’inflazione

• Rimesse in scadenza… ma per importi elevatissimi

La siccità è in diminuzione…

-10%

-25%

-13%

-21%

-9%

-14%

0%

3%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

December January February March

Nurek (TAJ)Charvak (UZB)

Water volumes for these months in 2008-2009, relative to average volumes Water volumes for these months in 2008-2009, relative to average volumes for these months during 1991-2007. Source: ICWC-SIC, UNDP calculationsfor these months during 1991-2007. Source: ICWC-SIC, UNDP calculations

….Ma non nel Bacino Syr Darya

-40%-42%

-21%

-40%-37%

-15%

-40%

-32%

-19%

-34%-36%

-19%

-50%

0%

December January February March

Toktogul (KYR) Andijan (KYR) Kayrakkum (TAJ )

Water volumes for these months in 2008-2009, relative to average volumes Water volumes for these months in 2008-2009, relative to average volumes for these months during 1991-2007. Source: ICWC-SIC, UNDP calculationsfor these months during 1991-2007. Source: ICWC-SIC, UNDP calculations

Il tasso d’inflazione del prezzo del cibo sta scendendo

• Ma i prezzi del cibo satanno ancora salendo

• Ie pressioni per l’emergenza cibo continuano

• Come si traduce allora l’abbassamento globale del prezzo cibo in quello del prezzo del cibo del Tajikistan?

Tajikistan: Year-on-year food price inflation rates

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

J uly Oct. J an. April J uly Oct. J an.

Source: National Statistical OfficeSource: National Statistical Office

Le rimesse potrebbero diminuire moltissimo

$600$521

$1,204

$754

$1,774

$1,041

$2,669

$1,462

$0

$3,000

2005 2006 2007 2008

TajikistanKyrgyzstan

Wages and transfers received, in million. Sources: National Banks of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan; IMF.

2009 Prospettive di crescita..grandi incertezze

PILPIL 7.9%7.9% It’s not clear where It’s not clear where growth will come growth will come

from in 2009from in 2009

IndustryIndustry -4.0%-4.0% ““Electric shock” is Electric shock” is giving industrial giving industrial

production a production a seasonal seasonal character.character.

Electricity Electricity consumption consumption

dropped 7% during dropped 7% during January-February, January-February, and export demand and export demand

is falling sharply.is falling sharply.

AgricultureAgriculture 7.9%7.9% Reduction in cotton Reduction in cotton planted, more land planted, more land under cultivation under cultivation seemed to offset seemed to offset

the drought.the drought.

Prospects in the Prospects in the Amu-Darya basin Amu-Darya basin

may be better than may be better than in the Syr-Darya in the Syr-Darya

Basin.Basin.

Fixed Fixed investmentinvestment

60.8%60.8% Due mostly to Due mostly to budget spending budget spending on infrastructure, on infrastructure,

and housing and housing construction construction financed by financed by remittances.remittances.

It’s not clear that It’s not clear that these trends will these trends will continue in 2009.continue in 2009.

Retail salesRetail sales 13.5%13.5% Remittances Remittances played key role in played key role in

boosting household boosting household spendingspending

Remittances are Remittances are down sharply in down sharply in

January-February.January-February.

Conclusioni

• The crisis will reduce growth, human development in the The crisis will reduce growth, human development in the regionregion– Poverty will risePoverty will rise– Much development progress could be lostMuch development progress could be lost

• Key priorities in the response:Key priorities in the response:– Protect those most vulnerable:Protect those most vulnerable:

• Better targeting of social benefitsBetter targeting of social benefits• Scaling up those initiatives that can quickly and effectively reach Scaling up those initiatives that can quickly and effectively reach

vulnerable communitiesvulnerable communities

– Don’t forget about other, longer-run development threats (e.g., Don’t forget about other, longer-run development threats (e.g., climate change)climate change)

• Once growth returns, or accelerates:Once growth returns, or accelerates:– Will it be as strong as before?Will it be as strong as before?– Will reforms and “transition” resume?Will reforms and “transition” resume?