Brasile e il Sudamerica:

Politica, economia e società

Andrés MalamudIstituto di Scienze Sociali, Università di Lisbona

Seminario: L’industria del lusso in BrasileAncona, 24 settembre 2009

Caratteristiche fondamentali del Brasile Caratteristiche fondamentali del Brasile e il sottocontinente sudamericanoe il sottocontinente sudamericano

Scala (territorio, popolazione, distanze)

Tendenze (stabilità politica e crescita economica)

Opportunità (sviluppo sicuro e piattaforma mondiale)

I BRIC: Brasile, Rusia, India e CinaI BRIC: Brasile, Rusia, India e Cina

Categories  BRAZIL    Russia    India    China  

Area 5th 1st 7th 3rd/4th (disp)

Population 5th 9th 2nd 1st

GDP (nominal) 10th 8th 12th 3rd

Exports 21st 11th 23rd 2nd

Imports 27th 17th 16th 3rd

Received FDI 16th 12th 29th 5th

Foreign exchange reserves 7th 3rd 4th 1st

Number of mobile phones 5th 4th 2nd 1st

Number of internet users 5th 11th 4th 1st

Brasile e i suoi vicini:Brasile e i suoi vicini:prospettive comparateprospettive comparate

Brasile: sistema politico frammentato…Brasile: sistema politico frammentato…ma stabile (2006)ma stabile (2006)

GNI per capita, 1975-2005 (selected countries)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

GNI p

er c

apita

(in

dolla

rs)

Argentina

Brazil

Chile

Ethiopia

Korea, Rep.

Spain

United States

Unione Europea: evoluzione delle economieUnione Europea: evoluzione delle economie

European Union: GNI per capita, PPP (1975-2005)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Cu

rre

nt

inte

rna

tio

na

l do

llars

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Ireland

Portugal

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

America Latina: evoluzione delle economieAmerica Latina: evoluzione delle economie

Latin America: GNI per capita, PPP (1975-2005)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Cu

rre

nt

inte

rna

tio

na

l do

llars Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Mexico

Peru

Venezuela, RB

PopulationIndigenous

%GDP PPP GNI PPP/PC

Inequality (Gini)

X + M / GDPEconomy in

FTAA

Economy in subregional

blocUnited States 299 1 13201 44260 41 22 68 85Canada 33 2 1140 34610 33 59 6 7Mexico 104 30 1201 11410 46 60 6 8

Brazil 189 1 1708 8800 57 22 9 71Argentina 39 1 617 15390 51 38 3 26Uruguay 3 0 37 11150 45 45 0 2Paraguay 6 5 30 5070 58 82 0 1

Chile 16 5 208 11270 55 65 1

Colombia 46 3 362 7620 59 38 2 43Venezuela 27 2 202 7440 48 53 1 24Peru 28 45 187 6080 52 41 1 22Ecuador 13 25 61 4400 54 61 0 7Bolivia 9 55 27 2890 60 62 0 3

Panama 3 6 27 7680 56 0 9Costa Rica 4 1 48 10770 50 0 16Nicaragua 5 5 21 4010 43 0 7El Salvador 7 1 38 5340 52 0 12Honduras 7 7 26 3540 54 0 9Guatemala 13 40 61 4800 55 0 20Dominican Rep. 10 1 84 8290 52 0 28

Cuba 11 1Haiti 9 4 14 1490 59 0(Puerto Rico) 4 1

Caratteristicheregionali

1.- Mexico and Central America

Growing share of manufactured exports

2.- South America

Prevalence of resource-based goodies (agriculture and/or mining)

3.- Caribbean countriesSpecialization based on services (tourism and finance)

MERCOSUR: Evoluzione del commercio regionale 1960-2006

Base de datos CEPAL

Millones de dólares y porcentajes

INICIO

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

19

60

19

70

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

comercio intrarregional % en el total

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0

America Latina y ElCaribe

CAN

MERCOSUR

MCCA

CARICOM

Asia

NAFTA

UE

2000-2006

1990-1994

Commercio regionale ragruppato secondo le diverse strutture d’integrazione

Fuente: CEPAL, División de Comercio Internacional e Integración, sobre la base de información oficial

Il coefficiente del commercio

intrarregionalein UNASUR è del

18.7%

MERCOSUR: misure comparate

EU states, ordered by population

1. Germany2. France3. United Kingdom4. Italy5. Spain6. Poland7. Romania8. The Netherlands9. Greece10. Portugal11. Belgium12. Czech Rep.13. Hungary14. Sweden15. Austria16. Bulgaria17. Denmark18. Slovakia19. Finland20. Ireland21. Lithuania22. Latvia23. Slovenia24. Estonia25. Cyprus26. Luxembourg27. Malta

Random sample (millions)

Germany (82)

The Netherlands (16)

Latvia (2.2)

Estonia (1.3)

Equivalent population (millions)

Brazil (189)

Argentina (39)

[Venezuela (27)]

Paraguay (6)

Uruguay (3)

GDP PC ranking ($)

Argentina (15,390)

Uruguay (11,150)

Brazil (8,800)

[Venezuela (7,440)]

Paraguay (5,070)

MERCOSUR: Leadership regionali e performance a confronto

DimensionEUROPEAN UNION MERCOSUR

Funds to deal with regional asymmetries

CAP and Structural Funds: € 86,000 M in 2006

FOCEM: $ 100 M in 2008

Net contribution to regional budget

Germany: € 8,000 M in 2005 (0.39% of GNI)

Brazil: $ 60 M in 2008 (0.007% of GNI)

Judicial institutionalization Court rulings: 526 in 2004 (33 in 1968; 77 in 1969)

Dispute settlement rulings: 13 between 1991 and 2008

Parliamentary institutionalization

Malta 5 MEPs;Germany 99 MEPs.Increasing competences

Brazil 18 MMPs;Uruguay 18 MMPs.No competences

Legal transposition Supremacy of community law and direct effect

33% were not in force in 2006

Enlargement From 6 to 27 From 4 to… 4? (plus conflicts)

Brasile: il paese del futuro?Brasile: il paese del futuro?