Presentasi XL1

8/14/2019 Presentasi XL1

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PT EXCELCOMINDO PRATAMA Tbk. (XL)

Views on Industry

August 2008

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Views on Industry

Indonesian MarketIndonesian Market Mobile penetration overstated

Multiple SIM Cards

Calling card users high rotationalchurn

Lower MoU compared to other regional

countries, mainly due to higher average

Large incrementalLarge incremental

capacitycapacity

requirement forrequirement for

2

Intensifying competition

Competitive LandscapeCompetitive Landscape

Previous:

Focus on coverage

Today:

Shift to capacity

ImpactImpact

an ng ncreasean ng ncrease

in MoUin MoU

Passive InfrastructurePassive Infrastructure

sharing amongstsharing amongst

operatorsoperators


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249 million 3rd largest

104.0 million 3rd largest

41.8 %1 Third quartile

Indonesian Wireless Market:

Large and Poised for Growth

2007 Statistics Regional Ranking

Population

Wireless Subscribers

Year-End Wireless Penetration (%)

3

16.5% Top quartile

US$7.52 Bottom quartile

60.02 Third quartile

US$0.083 Second quartile

Monthly Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)

Monthly Minutes of Usage(MOU)

Revenue Per Minute

2007-2012 Wireless Subscriber CAGR (%)

1. Wireless penetration based on number of SIM card subscriptions as a percentage of total population. Penetration rate based on real subscribers wasapproximately 24% as of December 2007.

2. Outgoing minutes and ARPU, respectively.

3. Based on monthly voice ARPUs of US$5.0.Source: Company Estimates, Goldman Sachs Research, Pyramid Research


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Rapid Wireless Subscriber Growth

279

104135

162186 207

223 258248237 266 273

42%

53%

63%

72%79%

84%89% 92% 94% 96% 99%97%

100

200

300

Subscribers(mm)

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Penetra

tion(%)

Projected Wireless Subscribers

Indonesias wireless market will double in size over the next five years

4

0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

0%

Subscribers (mm) Penetration (%)

Key Trends

Source: Goldman Sachs Research

Indonesia's wireless market is the third largest in the region, behind China and India

Several factors will drive rapid projected subscriber growth

Heightened competition contributing to lower tariffs and increasing wireless service affordability

Falling handset prices and large handset re-sale market reducing barriers to entry for new subscribers

Positive macroeconomic environment combining strong GDP growth with rising income levels

Network expansion and rural rollouts catering to previously unmet demand

Low fixed line capital investment levels further contributing to the need for wireless telephony services


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From most expensive to the cheapest

Competition in theIndonesian mobile business

has driven down pricesconsiderably in past 24

months

This has resulted in tariffsmoving from being one ofthe most expensive in the

region to one of thecheapest

ImpactImpact

5

RPM Comparison in 2005 RPM Comparison today


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Volume is the key

The capacity will be the focus of the operatorsThe capacity will be the focus of the operators With RPM already at the lowest level, operators now aim for MoU

enhancement

At current total MoU of approximately 200mins/subs/month, this is less

than half of Indias MoU/subs/month

There is still ample room for MoUs to rise to 400mins, as over time,

disposable income should improve due to declining inflation

6

o su s mon compar son n m nu es


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Margins are to remain high

Despite of price competition, the margins are likely to remain

stable, due to cost per minute reduction. However, such cost

reductions would vary from one operator to another.

Revenue and cost per minute (Rp.) Operating profit per minute (Rp.) vs margin %

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Capex is expected to remain high

Capex spend in Indonesian telecommunication industry for the past 3years show increasing trend. Capex is expected to remain high.

Subscriber net adds will remain high and MoU per user will grow astariffs cut continue to spur penetration and usage.

16000

18000

Rp (bn)

8

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2005 2006 2007 2008E

TSEL ISAT XL

`

Source: Companys estimateSource: Companys estimate


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Kebijakan & Peraturan Telekomunikasi

Perkembangan teknologi lebih cepat dariregulasi. Regulasinya masih berdasarkan pada teknologi circuit

switch, sementara jaringan yang terbangun sebagian besar

beralih ke teknologi packet switch Mem erce at enetrasi internet men unakan teknolo i

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wireless broadband

Niat baik pemerintah memberi insentif bagi

operator yang aktif menggelar jaringan danmenyediakan layanan kepada masyarakat &sebaliknya perlu dituangkan secepatnya.


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Kebijakan & Peraturan Telekomunikasi

Perlu didukung upaya pemerintah menemukanmekanisme pengalokasian frekuensi yang lebih baik,

agar penggunaan frekuensi dapat lebih efisien dan

lebih bermanfaat untuk masyarakat luas

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Masih terdapat perlakuan yang tidak sama (Unequallevel of playing field) antara operator, misalnya dalam

hal:

Biaya interkoneksi Biaya BHP Frekuensi


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Inkonsistensi, Peraturan yang berubah-ubah dan Multiinterpretasi dari UU dan Peraturan Pemerintah dapat

menimbulkan kebingungan pada investor

Terdapat dualisme dalam memandang peran investor

Pengaturan Investasi

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agar tidak mengurangi minat calon investor baru karena

Industri Telekomunikasi merupakan bagian yang yang

tidak terpisahkan dari industri lainnya di Indonesia

hingga perlu kebijakan terpadu.


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Dampak Dari Otonomi Daerah Terhadap Operator

Beberapa Pemerintah Daerah Kabupaten/Kotamemandang pembangungan jaringan telekomunikasi& penyediaan layanan telekomunikasi sebagai sumberpendapatan daripada sebagai infrastruktur yang dapat

meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi

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Beberapa Peraturan Daerah yang berakibatkelambatan pembangunan & Pungutan yangmenimbulkan high cost economy. Perlu dipikirkan

realokasi sebagian BHP frekuensi ke daerah untukmenutupi biaya tambahan yang muncul.

Presentasi XL1

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