Strutture produttive, tecnologia ed

economia

ECONOMIA STRUTTURALE E

NUOVA INDUSTRIA

Patrizio Bianchi

UNIVERSITA di FERRARA e REGIONE EMILIA ROMAGNA

1

Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei

Fondazione Edison

19 ottobre 2017

Economia strutturale e

nuova industria

Patrizio Bianchi and Sandrine Labory

Industrial Policy for the Manufacturing Revolution

Edward Elgar Pu., forthcoming

2

La political economy del cambiamento strutturale

la Scuola italiana di Cambridge, Scazzieri sulla Traversa di Hicks

La centralità della produzione e della organizzazione della

produzione e del concetto stesso di manifattura in relazione alle

trasformazioni del mercato inteso come insieme delle interrelazioni

che strutturano la società

Industria come l’insieme delle condizioni materiali ed immateriali

che abilitano la produzione, il ruolo della tecnoscienza

«As it is the power of exchanging that gives

occasion to the division of labour, so the

extent of this division must always be limited

by the extent of the power, or, in other

words, by the extent of the market»

A.Smith, The Wealth of Nations, I, 3, 1776

globalization Industry 4.0

Il punto di partenza

Market power

4 Cambia l’ extent of the market

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Real GDP Growth (annual % change), 1980 - 2014

Advanced economies Emerging and developing economies World

Berlin Wall Fall Twin Towers

Attack, Doha

agreement, EMU

Lehman

Brothers

Failure

5

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

Advanced economies

Emerging and DevelopingAsia

World

Globalisation

Digital globalisation

Export of goods annual billion US (fonte IMF)

6

Mobile data traffic by application type monthly exabyte

(Ericcson)

7

Manufacturing gross value and annual value rate of

gross value added 2004 – 2014

8

Global mobile data trafic forecast and devices

(fonte Cisco, 2017)

9

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

2013 2014 2015 2018

America

Asia

Europe

Total

World annual

supply of industrial

robots (ooo)

Estimated total

stock of

industrial

robots

Source:

International

Federation of

Robotics, 2016

10

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Manufacturing

Value added,

Current billion $

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

China

Germany

France

United Kingdom

Italy

Japan

United States

Manufacturing Value

Added as a

Percentage of GDP

11

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2004 2014

OTHER G20

COUNTRIES

OTHER COUNTRIES

SOUTH KOREA

USA

JAPAN

CHINA

EU 28

Share of world

patent applications

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

198

5

198

7

198

9

199

1

199

3

199

5

199

7

199

9

200

1

200

3

200

5

200

7

200

9

201

1

201

3

201

5

China

Germany

France

United Kingdom

European Union

Korea, Rep.

United States

Patent

applications,

residents, 1985 to

2015

GLOBAL MEGATRENDS

DEMOGRAPHIC GROWTH Vs. SCARCITY OF RESOURCES

➢ Increase in the productivity of land, capital and labour

DISPARITIES AND INEQUALITY INSIDE THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

➢ capacity to give answer to personal and community needs

CLIMATE CHANGE AND URBANIZATION MOVEMENT

➢ government of global, collective, community needs

in the globalization era also the

problems are globalized

Environmental

social

economic

political

If Global goals are the new

extent of the market in the

globalization era,

Industry 4.0 must be considered

as the new division of labour of

the globalization era

16 Industry 4.0 cannot be seen only from a technological perspective,

but also by analysing the economic, social,

political, environmental impact

that the adoption of enabling and

converging technologies involves

and evaluating

the ability to provide appropriate and

customized responses to emerging global

needs

The first industrial revolution

political revolution: Glorious revolution 1688-9

cultural revolution: Locke 1690

scientific revolution: Newton 1687

17

In the new bourgeois society,

individuals assert themselves in

politics using all production

technologies

CONVERGENCE OF TECHNOLOGIES IN A

SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL

COMPETITION AMONG COUNTRIES

Industrial revolution periods Political identity Reference technology/ SCIENCE

1 industr.rev. 1730 - 1880 Nation states Steam power

GRAVITY

2 industr. Rev. 1880 - 1950 Nationalism and imperialism

Electricity and automotiveRELATIVITY

3 industr. Rev. 1950 - 2000 Bipolar world Electronics and informaticsQUANTISTIC

4. industr. Rev. 2000 globalization Hyperconnection

high

medium high

craft

production

Fordist

production

medium

low

low

Volumes of

production

Product

Differentiation

Flexible

production

Industry

4.0

Product definition

high

medium

low medium high

scale

low

scope

Rigid mass

production

Flexible mass

production

Customized

individual

production

Customized

mass

production

Process organization

RIGID MASS PRODUCTION

homogeneous product price competition

FLEXIBLE MASS PRODUCTION

differentiated product no-price competiton

CUSTOMIZED MASS PRODUCTION

personal needs competition

Organization of production and model of competition

22

Enabling technologies

Additive manufacturing

Digital manufacturing

Virtual reality

Second generation robots

Internet of things

Big data

Artificial intelligence

I 4.0

Convergence of

complementary

technologies

23

production

Pre-

productionPost-

production

R&D - PROD. LOGISTICS

(supply chain organization)

MARKET PROMOTION

SALES (e-commerce)

SALE LOGISTICS

MARKET ASSISTANCE

FULL INTEGRATION

PRODUCTION / SERVICES

industrial revolution has been seen as a

traverse from a state determined by a capital

structure, to another one

This transition not only requires appropriate skills

to design, manage and implement the change

of production organization,

but also to understand the changes in

demand, and at the same time the

opportunities offered by science

RIGID MASS PRODUCTION

individual fragmented tasks

FLEXIBLE MASS PRODUCTION

from unmanned factory to japanese

kaizen

DIGITAL MASS CUSTOMIZATION

always connected interactive team

Organization of production and labour structure

26People , technologies and labour in

the Industry 4.0 era

Job destruction and job creation

Inside the factory: more team work, more

virtual design, worker consciusness

inside the society: discovery new social needs,

global challenges vision

Inside the company: more client needs

understanding, more value chain networking,

more transversal competences, more

institutional capacity

Which skill, dexterity and judgement

for Industry 4.0?

Digital competences, but not only technical

skills and dexterity for «work done», but also

competences for judgements for «work to be

done»

To understand and manage the variety of

emerging needs and transform needs in

production

And competences to work together,

promoting collective intelligence,

comprehension and creativity

LINKAGES, SPECIALIZATION AND

COMPLEMENTARITY MANAGEMENT

Re-shape ecosystems

Re-imagine organizations

Re-invent performance management

TRANSFORMATION MANAGEMENT

DYNAMIC CAPABILITIES / DEEP LEARNING

RESEARCH

TECHNO-SCIENCE

COMMUNITY

PRODUCTION

Education

and

training

Social intangible capital,

resilience and the role of

education

Policies to promote opportunities for developing skills and rights together through a collaboration between institutions, social organizations and citizens.

The central role of

education for improving

social belonging and

stressing the value of

human resources for a

social sustainable

development.

SOCIAL INNOVATION

PRODUCTION CYCLE

STAGES ARE

LOCATED

ACCORDING TO THE

AGGLOMERATION

ADVANTAGES

OFFERED BY THE

DIFFERENT TERRITORIES

DIFFERENT FORMS OF PRODUCTION STAY

TOGETHER IN THE GLOBAL MARKET

BUT THE HEAD OF THE VALUE CHAIN IS LOCATED

WHERE WE ESTABLISH THE CORE OF THE

TECHNOSYSTEM

Big data

Bologna

Technopole

32 Big data and the role of platforms

The hyperconnection paradox and

the new monopolization risks

Dynamic

Capabilities new public goods/

differentiated services

Structural change and the New industry

Extent of the market, division of labour, market power

P.Bianchi, S,Labory, 2011

Production

Transformation

Dynamic ecosystem

Multilevel government

Coordination entry/exit OPEN

Capabilities new public goods/

differentiated services

capital services

Education regulationTechnoscience

For Human

Development

Babbage Conference,

Cambridge 27 -28 sept. 2017

35

Roma 19 ottobre 2017