Complexity aware business for social change
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Transcript of Complexity aware business for social change
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Modulo MODELLI DI BUSINESS 2.0, COLLABORAZIONE,
INNOVAZIONE, CREAZIONE DI VALORE
Titolo Unità La Digital Innovation e i modelli collaborativi
Numero Pagine
Obiettivi
1. Conoscere i fondamenti della teoria dell’innovazione (Value chain, fasi del processo di innovazione)
2. Comprendere la rivoluzione internet, conoscere la storia della nascita dei modelli collaborativi e dei commons digitali (commons-based peer production)
3. Comprendere gli Ecosistemi digitali e l’economia collaborativa: i pilastri e i modelli di business
4. Saper usare le tecniche del Business modeling e del value proposition modeling per lo startup dei servizi collaborativi
Eugenio Battaglia
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chi sono
Pubbliche amministrazioni
- Academia - Think Tanks
- Thought Leaders
- Startups & Makers - Collab Spaces
non-profit + community + empowered ventures
- Communities - Individuals
- NGOs
- Global Partners - League Members Reti di esperti
InnovatoriSocietà civile
Aziende
Eugenio Battaglia - @battagliaem
• Governance & Organisation Design • Blockchain Deployment • Distributed Leaderships • Research • Events
• OuiShare • Cocoon Projects • BioFlux.eu • RuralHub
Organizzazioni
Interessi
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metodo
• Attitudine transdisciplinare
• Approccio sintetico ma non-lineare
• Offrire numerosi input per stimolare la ricerca individuale
> inspired by @rafr
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> la nascita dei modelli collaborativi (dalla rivoluzione di Internet ai commons digitali)
> la commons based peer production
> gli ecosistemi digitali e l’economia collaborativa (pilastri e modelli di business)
> fondamenti della teoria dell’Innovazione Value Chain, fasi del processo di innovazione
> laboratorio (business modeling e value proposition)
sintesi intervento
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> la nascita dei modelli collaborativi (dalla rivoluzione di Internet ai commons digitali)
indice argomento
I nuovi paradigmi socio-economici abilitati dal digitale
Trend demografici
Planetary boundaries
Le conseguenze della globalizzazione dei mercati finanziari
Le leggi fondamentali della stupidità umana
La cura dei beni comuni
Comprendere la complessità ecologica, sociale ed economica
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indice argomento
Storia e riferimenti della commons-based peer production
Fondamenti della commons-based peer production
Similarità e distinzioni tra i vari modelli
Le sfide socio-tecniche del digitale
Tassonomie dei nuovi paradigmi socio-economici
L’inevitabile decentralizzazione
> la commons based peer production
> gli ecosistemi digitali e l’economia collaborativa (pilastri e modelli di business)
I modelli di business nell’economia collaborativa e negli ecosistemi digitali
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indice argomento
> fondamenti della teoria dell’Innovazione Value Chain, fasi del processo di innovazione
Il ciclo ILC
Politiche di acquisto dei colossi del digitale
I cicli a lungo termine e la transizione di fase
Efficienza, marginalità ed esternalità
Accesso ai capitali e democratizzazzione dei mezzi finanziari
La teoria dell’innovazione
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indice argomento
> laboratorio (business modeling e value proposition)
Il segreto di Pulcinella: la Customer Discovery
Customer Discovery
il Business Model Canvas spiegato alla nonna
il Value Proposition Canvas
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Comprendere la complessità ecologica, sociale ed economica.
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Complessità
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> Kastushika Hokusai The blind men and the Elephant (1818)
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> Kastushika Hokusai The blind men and the Elephant (1818)
Reduzionismo vs Sistematica
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Idealismo
Systems Theory
Scienze Contemporanee
Platone Kant
Wiener Ashby Bertalanffy
Bruno
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Complessità
Proteine
Mercati
Folle
Social Networks
Epidemie
Cervello
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Proteine
Mercati
Folle
Social Networks
Epidemie
CervelloEmergenza
Complessità
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Complessità
Aumento delle unità Esplosione combinatoriale
Le soluzioni dipendono da ciò che sto cercando, ma soprattutto da ciò che posso osservare
Non ci sono soluzioni esatte e oggettive ma solo approssimate
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Emergente
In un sistema emergente non possiamo ricondurre il comportamento complessivo di un sistema a partire
dall’analisi dei suoi elementi particolari
Sono sistemi dinamici
Sono sistemi non-lineari
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Emergente
In un sistema emergente non possiamo ricondurre il comportamento complessivo di un sistema a partire
dall’analisi dei suoi elementi particolari
Sono sistemi dinamici
Sono sistemi non-lineari
Altamente imprevedibili
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Come gestire la complessità
Per interpretare ed agire nel mondo contemporaneo comprendere la complessità è essenziale
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gaFQJaQTXhY“how not to ma
nage
complexity!”
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Ciclicità e pattern
Gli elementi di un sistema dinamico non-lineare si organizzano globalmente in stati temporanei meta-stabili
mediante le loro interazioni locali fino al raggiungimento di un punto critico dove essi si
riorganizzano nuovamente per rispondere a cambiamenti intrinsechi agli elementi o all’ambiente.
An#Ecology##for#Transforma0ve#Ac0on#
&#Systemic#Change#
Helene#Finidori#–#May#2014#
kT ln 2
T
S Curve
> Holling Understanding the complexity of economic, ecological, and social systems (2001)
> AAVV S curve e il principio di Landauer
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Teoria del controllo nei sistemi emergenti
Le catastrofi in un sistema complesso sono […] “nulla di speciale”, sono solo uno degli aspetti dell’evoluzione del sistema. Non sarà possibile prevedere quando, ma è certo che le catastrofi di ampia scala prima o poi compariranno nel
sistema che ha raggiunto lo stato critico. Esse non arriveranno però mai a compromettere la stabilità del
sistema, dato che fanno parte integrante ed irrinunciabile della sua evoluzione.
> Marco Sandri L’economia dei sistemi complessi
http://www.msandri.it/complex/index.html
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Le tre Ecologie di Guattari
Ambientale
Sociale
Mentale
natura e ambiente
realtà economiche e sociali
soggettività e individualità
> Felix Guattari Le Tre Ecologie (1989)Post-antropocentrismo
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Once we used to live in a very different relation with resources
And that wasn’t at the time of Stanley Kubrick’s movies
Once we used to live in a very different relation with resources
And that wasn’t at the time of Stanley Kubrick’s movies
cc-by-sa 4.0 @meedabyte
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Nature Humans
Technology Interactions
“Order doesn't come by itself” Benoit Mandelbrot
Illustration: Simone Cicero – meedabyte.com
Interactions
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Exponential Times
kT ln 2
T
S Curve
you are here!
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I processi di crescita
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I processi di crescita
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0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10,000 AC 6,000 2,000 1000 1600 1800 2000 2015
Società Industriale(En. Fossile)
Società dei consumi
Società delle reti
Crescita demografica
> AAVV Global Trends 2030. NIC (2013)
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2030
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la popolazione mondiale crescerà fino a
8,3 miliardi
> AAVV Global Trends 2030. NIC (2013)
Alcuni trend da qui al 2030
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le persone che vivranno nelle città saranno
4,9 milardi
> AAVV UN World Urbanization Prospects (2013)
Alcuni trend da qui al 2030
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La domanda di cibo, acqua ed energia crescerà
+35% +50%+40%
> AAVV Global Trends 2030. NIC (2013)
Alcuni trend da qui al 2030
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L’aspettativa di vita nei paesi ad alto PIL
>90 anni
> AAVV Global Trends 2030. NIC (2013)
Alcuni trend da qui al 2030
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21601248-generation-old-people-about-change-global-economy-they-will-not-all-do-so
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Il potere economico sarà invertito
> AAVV Global Trends 2030. NIC (2013)
Alcuni trend da qui al 2030
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2015
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5600
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http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/
> AAVV IPCC Report (2014)
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> Steffen, Will, et al. "Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet." Science (2015)
Stockholm Resilience Centerhttp://stockholmresilience.org
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it’s thermodynamics! E’ fisica, non ideologia!
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> AAVV The Limits to Growth (1971)
Rapporto sui limiti dello sviluppo
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2008
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Crisi
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1980 1990
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1980
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_financial_system
1990Deregolamentazione dei mercati finanziari
Liberalizzazione dei capitali
Economie nazionali sono diventate più aperte
quindi più soggette a shock dall’esterno,
e siccome sempre più connesse tra loro
una crisi locale si propaga velocemente a livello globale
Dopo Bretton Woods…
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1980
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_financial_system
1990Prima gli interlocutori erano l’industria militare e quella energetica
Ora sono i grossi operatori dei mercati finanziari
Dopo Bretton Woods…
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1980
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_financial_system
1990l’Information Communication Technology (ICT)
ha avuto un ruolo centrale
Dopo Bretton Woods…
ICT Efficientamento Nuovi investimenti in ICT
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razionalizzazione produttiva, tecnologica, e organizzativa
concentrazione capitali
cicli di crisi finanziarie sempre più intense
La razionalizzazione dei processi produttivi
disoccupazione, riduzione welfare, stagnazione, picchi ecologici
TECNOLOGIA + Globalizzazione dei mercati finanziari
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I paradigmi dell’hardware
La componentizzazione guida l’emergere di standard che vengono conservati medianti
leggi darwinistiche
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Il ciclo dell’innovazione tecnologica ILC
indispensabile e quindi indispensabile per il ciclo successivo
a basso costo
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Il ciclo dell’innovazione tecnologica ILC
Innovate Leverage Commoditize(repeat)
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La legge di Moore
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La legge di Moore
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La crescita dell’informazione digitale
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Le curve di Kurzweil
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Il cambiamento dei modelli tradizionali
kT ln 2
> AAVV S curve e il principio di Landauer
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http://robotswillstealyourjob.com
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYIfeZcXA9U
> Federico Pistono “Robots will steal your job but that’s ok” (2012)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_unemployment_rate
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John Maynard Keynes, 1928“Economic Possibilites for our Grandchildrens”
Nel 2030 vivremo in un mondo di abbondanza, lavoreremo 15 ore a settimana, e passeremo la maggior parte del tempo a fare quello che più ci piace.
@battagliaem @ouishare #futuropossibile #Sharitories
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Efficienza, marginalità ed esternalità
Innovate Leverage Commoditize Repeat
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Efficienza, marginalità ed esternalità
Innovate Leverage Commoditize Repeat
dinamizzare la creazione di valore
nuove forme di organizzazione
sociale
nuovi accordi instituzionali
Incapacità del sistema di assorbire la produzione
Concentrazione dei capitali Aumento esternalità negative
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• Forma–Network • Economie di scopo • Outsourcing • Flessibilità • Informatizzazione • Globalizzazione
Postfordismo
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• Forma–Network • Economie di scopo • Outsourcing • Flessibilità • Informatizzazione • Globalizzazione
Postfordismo
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• Economie di scala = quantità, aumentando la produzione standard (lavora sugli input logistici e sul consumo di massa)
• Economie di scopo = varietà • customizzazione su nicchie sempre più diversificate • ruolo centrale della conoscenza, del linguaggio, della moda e dei gusti soggettivi • accumulazione flessibile:
• skills lavoratori e general intellect • standardizzazione dei mezzi di produzione
• modularità • componentizzazione • interoperabilità
• EFFETTI: • rid. costi di mantenimento • rid. rischio • maggiore aderenza alla real-demand
Economie di scopo vs Economie di scala
• Outsourcing • Informatizzazione • Globalizzazione • Economie di densità
si somma ad altre caratteristiche del post-fordismo
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• Rendimenti di scala crescenti
• Effetto rete
• Valore economico del general intellect (abstract labour e immaterial production)
• Scarsità della risorsa “attenzione”
New Economy
> inspired by @rafr
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a proposito di cicli…
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Complessità geoeconomica
•I sistemi sociali si trovano nella zona di confine tra ordine e caos
•La linearità nell’analisi economica è scarsamente predittiva
•I sistemi di regolazione politica stabilizzano la complessità sociale
•I conflitti sociali portano alla delinearizzazione delle strutture sociali di accumulazione
> inspired by @rafr
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Cicli economici di lungo periodo
• Schumpeter: il ciclo è la forma dello sviluppo economico
• Nei periodi di crisi prolungata tende a ripresentarsi la teoria dei cicli
• Cicli di lungo periodo: • cicli sistemici di accumulazione di Arrighi,
• cicli di Kondratieff, • onde secolari di Braudel
> inspired by @rafr
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Cicli di lungo periodo ed evoluzione socio-tecnica
> inspired by @rafr
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Neo-Schumpeterianismo
Innovate Leverage
Commoditize(repeat)
Paradigmi di settore
Ere di settore
Ogni ciclo tende ad essere più breve di quello precedente
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Age of crafts manufacturing Age of tayloristic industry
Age of global markets
Age of peer to peer economy
1850/1900 1971 today1929 1945 2008
financial accumulation
crash
Bretton Woods
1st ICT investments
F. accumulation
crash
???
high dynamic high dynamicsluggishness / low dynamic
Cicli contrattivi e cicli espansivi
Fin. globalization
???
over-production
profit-fall
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%$
controllano l’80% delle altre compagnie
raccolgono il 95% della ricchezza totale
600’000
460’000
737
146 controllano il 40% delle altre compagnie
43’000TNCs
A B
attori (aziende, persone, governi)
su 30M di players
“The network of global corporate control” PloS ONE
accumulazi
one finanz
iaria
incapacità
di assorb
ire produz
ione e dis
tribuire r
icchezza
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Il pensiero di Giovanni Arrighi
Ridotta ai minimi termini, l’analisi di Arrighi è […] abbastanza lineare.
Ogni ciclo sistemico conosce:
• una prima fase di espansione materiale, nella quale il soggetto egemone coordina a proprio vantaggio il mercato mondiale;
• una seconda fase di espansione finanziaria, dove la potenza egemone declinante abbandona il campo della produzione diretta per dominare il sistema attraverso la finanza, mentre nuove realtà si scontrano per emergere come leader del ciclo sistemico successivo.
Ogni volta che la potenza egemone di una determinata configurazione storica abbandona il campo della produzione di beni per la speculazione finanziaria, la sua sovranità sul sistema inizia a vacillare. La finanziarizzazione rappresenterebbe dunque l’autunno di un potere, o più precisamente, il momento conclusivo del ciclo sistemico di accumulazione.
http://temi.repubblica.it/micromega-online/capitalismo-e-crisi-globale-lattualita-del-pensiero-di-giovanni-arrighi/
kT ln 2
Per questo è importante osservare i trend
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Age of crafts manufacturing Age of tayloristic industry
Local markets, high customisation
Spacious markets, little competition
Outperformers exercise market pressure over conventional companies
disrupting every industry
1850/1900 1980 today
Formal part of value creationSolution:machine
Dynamic part of value creation Solution:
man
Age of global markets
Age of peer to peer economy
Competition is now driven by self-disruption
Access Automation
Componentization Unleash creativity and destroy labour
high dynamic high dynamicsluggishness / low dynamic
Flessibilità della creazione di valore
???
???
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Le traiettorie del sistema economico mondiale
• Le traiettorie del sistema-mondo non possono essere incasellate in schemi di tipo determinista
• La natura dei cicli si trasforma con il mutare delle strutture culturali e tecnologiche, e dipende dalla deplezione delle risorse finite, i trend demografici, dalla capacità del sistema di diversificarsi e quindi adattarsi
• Nei periodi di transizione i cambiamenti qualitativi seguono regole non-lineari
• L’azione sociale può indirizzare il mutamento dei paradigmi tecno-economici, in particolare nei punti di discontinuità del ciclo
> inspired by @rafr
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Le catastrofi
Le catastrofi in un sistema complesso sono […] “nulla di speciale”, sono solo uno degli aspetti dell’evoluzione del sistema. Non sarà possibile prevedere quando, ma è certo che le catastrofi di ampia scala prima o poi compariranno nel sistema che ha raggiunto lo stato critico. Esse non arriveranno però mai a compromettere la stabilità del sistema, dato che fanno parte integrante ed irrinunciabile della sua evoluzione.
> Marco Sandri L’economia dei sistemi complessi
http://www.msandri.it/complex/index.html
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Le catastrofi
• Biforcazione fondamentale nel sistema dell’economia mondiale: • egemonia (cinese?) vs imperium multipolare
(blockchain?)
• La variabile fondamentale sarà la velocità del declino relativo degli Stati Uniti
• Crisi anni ’90-’10: • Russia, lira ’92, Messico, Argentina, crack della New
Economy, crisi 2008
• Possibile globo-bang - crisi di propagazione (Mandelbrot, Eichengreen)
> inspired by @rafr
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Re-militarizzazione
> inspired by @rafr
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Mobilitazioni sociali e dell’immaginario
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Governance
all processes of governing
through laws, norms, power or language
undertaken by a government, market or network
over a family, tribe, organization or territory
to manage processes and decisions
Body
whether
that seeks to define actions, grant power, and verify performance
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Gap of Governance
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a proposito di immaginario…
> Stakanhov, a big-data God by artisopensource.net/
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• La percezione della realtà socio-economica è analoga ad un’illusione ottica
• Esistono delle distorsioni sistematiche nella percezione dei meccanismi generativi del benessere (Prospect Theory)
• Fenomeno evidenziabile nella valutazione dello sviluppo umano e nella gestione dei percorsi di vita (tempo di vita/tempo di lavoro)
Matrix: felicità ed economia
> inspired by @rafr
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Esempi: • PIL – Human Development Index • Estensione dell’orario di lavoro
• Erosione del capitale sociale ed ambientale
Matrix: Infelicità Sociale
> inspired by @rafr
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• L’ordine economico attuale viene vissuto come naturale ed immodificabile
• Allontanarsi da questo campo di influenza è una “guerra contro il sonno della coscienza”
Matrix: La prigione viene interiorizzata
> inspired by @rafr
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exit strategy
• Uscire dai meccanismi di controllo equivale a praticare una forma di “Kung-Fu” mentale
• Per influenzare in modo significativo le nostre vite - individualmente e collettivamente – bisogna trovare strategie chiare, semplici e replicabili
• E’ possibile sganciarsi dagli automatismi tecno-economici capendo i propri desideri reali
> inspired by @rafr
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exit strategy
•Certamente è possibile fabbricare concetti capaci di captare le connessioni tra i diversi piani
•E’ possibile tentare di cambiare noi stessi ed il mondo in modo creativo e con strategie sempre differenti
•Quindi come ci dice ilMaestro Yoda …
One solution, evolution !
> inspired by @rafr
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La sfida politica
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Sorveglianza e vulnerabilità
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Barriere ecologiche
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Fallacia del soluzionismo
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Incontrollabilità / complessità
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Volatilità / bolle
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97
Fondamentalismo
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Polarizazione
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Geopolitica
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“Capitalism has won
and it has no clue
where to go”
> Adam Arvidsson “Where are we with capitalisms?” Youtube (2015)
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“technology is the answer, but what was the question?”
@battagliaem @ouishare #commonscamp #Sharitories
- Cedric Price, 2012
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La crisi del valore nel capitalismo contemporaneo
Cosa ha valore?
Cosa si può misurare?
Come si misura?
From: @meedabyte
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Un mondo di intangibili
Reputazione
Proprietà
Logistica
Brand
Design
Avviamento d’impresa
Metodologie
Servizi
Pagamenti
Sapere e Tecnologia digitale
Distribuzione assets S&P’s 500
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1975 1985 1995 2005 2010 2015
16%20%20%32%68%83%
84%80%80%
68%
32%
17%
Intangibili Tangibili
Ocean Tomo report http://bit.ly/1Id2n9h
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La crisi del valore nel capitalismo contemporaneo
Cosa ha valore?
Cosa si può misurare?
Come si misura?
From: @meedabyte
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Il PIL non riduce problemi sociali e sanitari
From: equalitytrust.co.uk
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Disuguaglianza economica
Benessere nell’infanzia Fiducia negli altri
Problemi sociali e sanitari Disturbi mentaliOmicidi Abbandono scuola
Mobilità sociale
+ di 200 studi
From: equalitytrust.co.uk
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La crisi del valore nel capitalismo contemporaneo
Cosa ha valore?
Cosa si può misurare?
Come si misura?
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Oltre il PIL
“[…] Il benessere di una nazione può essere scarsamente misurato dal suo prodotto interno lordo”
Simon Kuznets, Premio Nobel per l’economia, sul PIL e benessere
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nuove forme di organizzazione socialeabilitanti, inclusive, distribuite
Può il capitalismo uccidere sé stesso?
razionalizzazione produttiva, tecnologica, e organizzativa
concentrazione capitali
cicli di crisi finanziarie sempre più intense
disoccupazione, riduzione welfare, stagnazione, picchi ecologici
TECNOLOGIA + Globalizzazione dei mercati finanziari
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Due possibili soluzioni
Commons-based peer production
Democratizzazione dei mezzi finanziari
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ma prima…
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Pensa all’ultima volta che qualcuno che conosci…
ha fatto qualcosa di davvero stupido…
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Perchè le persone fanno cose stupide?
Cosa significa essere stupidi?
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Le leggi fondamentali della stupidità umana
> Carlo Maria Cipolla Le leggi fondamentali della stupidità umana
“Allegro ma non troppo” (1972)
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Le leggi fondamentali della stupidità umana
> Carlo Maria Cipolla Le leggi fondamentali della stupidità umana
“Allegro ma non troppo” (1988)
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> cc by sa 4.0 Eternally Curious
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Sempre e inevitabilmente ognuno di noi sottovaluta il numero degli individui stupidi in circolazione:
a) persone che reputiamo razionali ed intelligenti all’improvviso risultano essere stupide senza ombra di dubbio;
b) giorno dopo giorno siamo condizionati in qualunque cosa che facciamo da gente stupida che invariabilmente compare nei luoghi meno opportuni.
E’ impossibile stabilire una percentuale, dato che qualsiasi numero sarà troppo piccolo.
Prima legge
> Carlo Maria Cipolla Le leggi fondamentali della stupidità umana
“Allegro ma non troppo” (1988)
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La probabilità che una certa persona sia stupida é indipendente da qualsiasi altra caratteristica della stessa persona, spesso ha l'aspetto innocuo/ingenuo e ciò fa abbassare la guardia.
La percentuale di stupidi è sempre la stessa in ogni popolazione campione.
Non si può trovare nessuna differenza del fattore Y nelle razze, nei sessi, nelle condizioni etniche, educazione, condizioni congenite, eccetera.
Seconda legge
> Carlo Maria Cipolla Le leggi fondamentali della stupidità umana
“Allegro ma non troppo” (1988)
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Una persona stupida è chi causa un danno ad un altra persona o gruppo di persone senza nel contempo realizzare alcun vantaggio per sé o addirittura subendo una perdita.
Terza legge
> Carlo Maria Cipolla Le leggi fondamentali della stupidità umana
“Allegro ma non troppo” (1988)
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Le persone non stupide sottovalutano sempre il potenziale nocivo delle persone stupide. Dimenticano costantemente che in qualsiasi momento, e in qualsiasi circostanza, trattare e/o associarsi con individui stupidi si dimostra infallibilmente un costosissimo errore.
Quarta legge
> Carlo Maria Cipolla Le leggi fondamentali della stupidità umana
“Allegro ma non troppo” (1988)
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Quinta legge
La persona stupida é il tipo di persona più pericolosa che esista.
Questa è probabilmente la più comprensibile delle leggi per la conoscenza comune che la gente intelligente, per quanto possano essere ostili (banditi), sono prevedibili mentre gli stupidi non lo sono.
> Carlo Maria Cipolla Le leggi fondamentali della stupidità umana
“Allegro ma non troppo” (1988)
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Corollario
"Una persona stupida è più pericolosa di un bandito" ci conduce all’essenza della Teoria del Cipolla.
Esistono quattro tipi di persone in dipendenza del loro comportamento in una transazione:
- Disgraziato (Sfortunato): chi con la sua azione tende a causare danno a sé stesso, ma crea anche vantaggio a qualcun altro - Intelligente: chi con la sua azione tende a creare vantaggio per sé stesso, ma crea anche vantaggio a qualcun altro - Bandito: chi con la sua azione tende a creare vantaggio per sé stesso, ma allo stesso tempo danneggia qualcun altro - Stupido: chi causa un danno ad un altra persona o gruppo di persone senza nel contempo realizzare alcun vantaggio per sé o addirittura subendo una perdita
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> cc by sa 4.0 Eternally Curious
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> cc by sa 4.0 Eternally Curious
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gli ecosistemi digitali e l’economia collaborativa
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La rivoluzione Open Source
1983 1991
2001
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La cattedrale e il bazaar
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storia e riferimenti commons based peer production
2006
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La rivoluzione Open Source
2008
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everyone is networked
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everyone is networked with everything
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“Software is eating the world”Marc Anderseen
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Thanks to tools like these Illustration: Simone Cicero – meedabyte.com
Thanks to tools like these Thanks to tools like these
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Democratization of production
Democratization of production
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No more monolithic products
No more monolithic products
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Modularity Customizability
Hackability
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All this demand for innovation
drives componentization
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Access +
Componentization +
Collaboration =
the highest disruption rate ever
Access +
Componentization +
Collaboration =
the highest disruption rate ever
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Illustration: Simone Cicero – meedabyte.com
Consumers can also become Producers and Designers
themselves.
Roles can change
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Less of this
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Much more of this
Illustration: Simone Cicero – meedabyte.com
Much more of this
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In places like this Abandoned factory in Lurgan (UK)
Illustration: Simone Cicero – meedabyte.com
In places like this Abandoned factory in Lurgan (UK)
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Master Internazionali- Copyright ASVI – Vietata la riproduzione anche parziale in assenza di autorizzazione
“The past decade was about finding
new collaboration and innovation
models on the web.
The next decade will be about
applying them to the real world.”
Chris Anderson
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2010: Rachel Botsman
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“the average power drill is used for 13 minutes in its entire lifetime”
You don’t need a drill, you need a hole in the wall.
Rachel Botsman
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Car Sharing
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Long Range Ridesharing
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City-Ridesharing
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Affitto tra privati
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Room Sharing
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Home Sharing
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Experience SharingExperience Sharing
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ExperienceSharingExperience Sharing
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Task Sharing
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ODESK??
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Dogboarding
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La lavatrice!
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AirPnP!
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NON SOLO CONSUMO
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Basata sulle reti e la partecipazione di una comunità:
“potere e fiducia distribuita all'interno delle comunità in contrapposizione alle istituzioni centralizzate" (R. Botsman)
Confonde i confini tra produttore e consumatore.
Comunità che si incontrano e interagiscono sulle reti online e offline.
Riuso e sull’ottimizzazione di risorse (tangibili e non) altrimenti scarsamente utilizzate o sprecate
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“La costruzione di una cultura
(società/economia) collaborativa che nasca connettendo organizzazioni, persone e idee intorno ai temi dell’equità, dell’apertura e della fiducia”
From NESTA: “MAKING SENSE OF THE UK COLLABORATIVE ECONOMY”
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consumoproduzione
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Conoscenza
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Alimentazione
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I mobili!
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Le finanze!
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The (true) Collaborative Economy
Economic advantage & sustainability
Environmental sustainability
Social impact & sustainability
CC-BY-SA @meedabyte (meedabyte.com)
The Triple Bottom Line:
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SHARING
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From Altimeter’s The Collaborative Economy http://www.altimetergroup.com/research/reports/collaborative-economy
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CollaborativeConsumption.com
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Rational Benefits 1. Financial – saves me money 2. Environmental – is good for the environment 3. Lifestyle – provides me flexibility 4. Lifestyle – is practical 5. Trial – provides access to goods/services
Source: Campbell Mithun research
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Source: Campbell Mithun research
Emotional Benefits 1. Generosity – I can help myself and others 2. Community – I'm valued and belong 3. Lifestyle – I'm smart 4. Lifestyle -- I'm more responsible 5. Cultural – I'm part of a movement
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2.5billionpeopletotheworld’surbanpopulationby2050
Source: UN World Urbanization Prospects @meedabyte @ouishare #SCE2014 #Sharitories
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@meedabyte @ouishare #SCE2014 #Sharitories
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185M€ 1100 jobs
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una economia giovane
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tasse
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assicurazione
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Impatto sulle
comunità?
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People vs. profit (business as usual)
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“Fundamentally, economic value is created from economic inefficiencies ... While this all started slowly, today (thanks to digital revolution) every sector of the global economy is being affected by the relentless drive for efficiencies*”
John Winsor (CEO of Victors & Spoils and Chief Innovation Officer of Havas)
* = e il PIL?
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“…all of these amazing digital technologies are coming together to create a world of mounting performance pressure.”
J.Hagel
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Master Internazionali- Copyright ASVI – Vietata la riproduzione anche parziale in assenza di autorizzazione
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Quali contesti sociali?
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Contesto
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• SHAREABLE TRANSPORTATION
• FOOD AND THE SHARING ECONOMY
• SHAREABLE HOUSING
• JOB CREATION AND THE SHARING ECONOMY
Aree4
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“The Sharing City not only creates new jobs, increases income and efficiently uses resources, but it will reproduce communities that disappeared, due to rapid urbanization and industrialization, in a modern mode using information technologies and social networking services.” Park Won-soon, major of Seoul
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•Support to sharing nonprofits and corporations • Promotion of sharing enterprises • Publicizing Seoul’s brand as the Sharing City • Subsidizing and Incubation for Sharing Startups and Enterprises • Incubating approximately 20 sharing startups • A Sharing Promotion Committee • An International Sharing City Conference • Facilitate communication between sharing enterprises and central gov. • Correct obstructive statutes or systems (laws)
key items9
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Riflessione Chiave
• Non esistono policies che funzionino in tutti i territori
• L’implementazione di un modello di sviluppo collaborativo presuppone una azione attiva e “politica” (strategica) legata alla peculiarità della
realtà locale
• L’incontro tra una visione politica chiara e l’innovazione che viene dalla società
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La visione
• Identificazione, racconto e catalogazione di (best) practice frammentate e diverse tra loro
• Creazione di strumenti ove mancanti
• Un processo/percorso
• Un “network” di territori (città, regioni) e un contesto di confronto (Collaborative Territories Summit)
#designthinking #policies #mindsets #pratiche #seriousgames #codesign
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“the partner state, is a state form that enables the social creation of value by its citizens. It protects the infrastructure of co-operation that is the whole of society.”
The partner state
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“This transition will take the country from a phase of dependence on finite resources to one of infinite resources, such as science, technology and knowledge”
“change the productive matrix towards creating a society based on common, free and open knowledge”
FLOK Society
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I pillar, i settori e i
business models
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CONSUMO PRODUZIONE
FINANZAOpen Knowledge (gov, data, culture, science, …)
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I modelli di business
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Consumo
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Cosa succede a un settore
quando subentrano modelli di consumo
collaborativo?
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Mobility
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Master Internazionali- Copyright ASVI – Vietata la riproduzione anche parziale in assenza di autorizzazione
“100-120 million of free car seats every day in Spain”
Vincent Rosso
Ridesharing interurbano
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Hospitality & Travel
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ESEMPIO EVOLUZIONE: HOSPITALITY
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ESEMPIO EVOLUZIONE: HOSPITALITY
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ESEMPIO EVOLUZIONE: HOSPITALITY
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MERCATI COLLATERALI
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MERCATI COLLATERALI
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‹#›
ESEMPIO EVOLUZIONE: HOSPITALITY
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Design & manufacturing
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Marketplace
Infrastructure
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Hacking Finance
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Equity
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Locale
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Per I beni comuni
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P2p lending
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Internet :
Aperta Generativa
Decentralizzata
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Condivisione & peer to peer
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DYI, Hacking, Sperimentazione
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Oltre la moneta
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slhuidzccpI
Smart contracts
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Smart contracts
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Decentralized applications
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294
Oltre la finanza
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296
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Decentralized autonomous organizations
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Utopia
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Dark side 1 – Assasination
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Dark side 2 - No privacy
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Dark side 3 - No contract flexibility
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Dark side 4 - Polarization
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Dark side 5 - Concentration
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Altri case studies e ruolo del trust
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Capacità disponibile
Massa Critica
Trust
ATTIVATORI
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Commercial (B2C)
Peer-to-Peer (C2C)
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5-star ratings
Verified websites
Identity verifi- cations
Specialty insurance
Real person identity verifi-cation
Social Media
P2P Marketplaces
E - Commerce
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Soluzioni
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Portable Trust Badge
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“Reputation capital could create a massive positive disruption in who has power, trust and influence.”
Rachel Botsman, TED Global
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Guardiamo attraverso la lente dei business
models
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7 modelli di riferimento
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Advertising and Affiliation
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Altri modelli di business
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Pagamenti
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Fatturazione
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Vendo per te
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Collaborative economy: una parola, tanti significati
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La gig ‘on-demand’ economy
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La rent economy
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La eccetera economy
…
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Tre diverse tipologie di Economia collaborativa
transattiva adattativa
generativa
trasformativa
Le tre tipologie di economia collaborativa secondo Corvo
> Luigi Corvo Università Tor Vergata
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I quattro quadranti e la co-esistenza dei modelli
http://p2pfoundation.net/Network_Society_and_Future_Scenarios_for_a_Collaborative_Economy
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Distinzioni tra i vari modelli
• tripla sostenibilità, approccio beyond GFP, gLocal, commons-based, diversi tipi di valori transati, i peer entrano nei meccanismi di governance, portabilità di infrastruttura, standards e dati, interoperabilità dei componenti piattaforma, co-mantenuta e co-curata dai peers.
E. trasformative e generative ‘by and for’ people
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Distinzioni tra i vari modelli
• monetizzazione delle interazioni tra peers tramite la fornitura di infrastrutture centralizzate e proprietarie che spingono i peers ad utilizzare sempre la stessa piattafroma; esternalità negative alte;
• tendono ad essere monopoli perfetti, ruoli definiti, scarsa portabilità dei dati e delle infrastrutture, governance centralizzata
E. transattive adattative
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Similarità tra i vari modelli
L’utilizzo di piattaforme digitali che fanno leva su componenti standard che abilitano la creazione di valore e le interazioni tra i peers;
L’utilizzo di meccanismi di reputazione (spesso legati all’identità giuridica reale) che costruiscono fiducia tra i partecipanti e riducono la percezione del rischio
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La co-creazione di valore e la commons-based peer production
• co-creazione e mantenimento collaborativo delle infrastrutture comuni • collaborative decision making • modularità e granularità • self-assignment (nessuno può o ti di dirà che fare) • motivazioni intrinseche • co—ownerships • co-gestione di risorse (horizontal) • open, transparent, decentralised, (data e infrastrutture) • p2p, independent and interdependent (relazioni e gerarchie) • interoperabilità e portabilità delle piattaforme e identità (data e infrastrutture)
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Organisation design e governance models
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Cosa significa per il prodotto/servizio
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Web 2.0 = Web as Platform
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Bidirezionale Interattivo Personale
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education
prototyping
experimenting
became LOW COST
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everyone is networked
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everyone is networked with everything
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“Software is eating the world”Marc Anderseen
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Thanks to tools like these Illustration: Simone Cicero – meedabyte.com
Thanks to tools like these Thanks to tools like these
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No more monolithic products
No more monolithic products
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Modularity Customizability
Hackability
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All this demand for innovation
drives componentization
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Access +
Componentization +
Collaboration =
the highest disruption rate ever
Access +
Componentization +
Collaboration =
the highest disruption rate ever
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Consumers can also become Producers and Designers
themselves.
Roles can change
Illustration: Simone Cicero – meedabyte.com
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Less of this
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Much more of this
Illustration: Simone Cicero – meedabyte.com
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In places like this Abandoned factory in Lurgan (UK)
Illustration: Simone Cicero – meedabyte.com
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DECENTRALISATION
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Hierarchy Group
controlled by individuals
Consensus Individuals controlled by the group
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Openness
foster
enablesInnovation
Knowledge sharing
FairnessTrust
increase
Diversity
reinforcesTransparency
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COMPETIZIONE
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Mercati poco compresi, gap da definire, fase di evoluzione dinamica, piccoli numeri. Creare il futuro.
Startups
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L'aumento della domanda, crescenti opportunità di mercato, prodotti maturi, crescita dei ricavi.
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Richieste standardizzate, concorrenza crescente. Ottimizzazione per le operazioni. Competizione sul costo essenziale del business
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Illustration: Simon Wardley – blog.gardeviance.org
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Innovate Leverage
Commoditize(repeat)
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Innovate Leverage
Commoditize(repeat)
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FB Identity Services Opengraph Payment Services
Valu
e Ch
ain
Genesis Custom Built Product Commodity/Utility
Social Networking
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Apps Payment Services Advertising Network
Valu
e Ch
ain
Genesis Custom Built Product Commodity/Utility
Smart phones
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Dinners & Meals Concierge / Companion service
Valu
e Ch
ain
Genesis Custom Built Product Commodity/Utility
Room rental
Travel
Experience
Crowded Market
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Long tail = Diversificazione Diversificazione = Nicchie
Nicchie = Economie di Scopo
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Sui Servizi… L’abbiamo già visto
(aka: consumo collaborativo)
Ma sui prodotti e sulla produzione?
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Master Internazionali- Copyright ASVI – Vietata la riproduzione anche parziale in assenza di autorizzazione
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Master Internazionali- Copyright ASVI – Vietata la riproduzione anche parziale in assenza di autorizzazione
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Master Internazionali- Copyright ASVI – Vietata la riproduzione anche parziale in assenza di autorizzazione
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Diversi Ruoli
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Master Internazionali- Copyright ASVI – Vietata la riproduzione anche parziale in assenza di autorizzazione
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Master Internazionali- Copyright ASVI – Vietata la riproduzione anche parziale in assenza di autorizzazione
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Dalle Economie di Scopo (l’azienda produce molteplici prodotti)
alle Experience User Centric
(crowdsourcing - utente crea il suo prodotto)Sommano i benefici delle economie di scala (new
economy) con le economie di scopo
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www.pentagrowth.com
•
•
•
•
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www.pentagrowth.com
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www.pentagrowth.com
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Le sfide politiche: il gap of governance
• Labour, taxation, e contract law
• La privacy, la proprietà dei dati e la net-neutrality
• La blockchain e la nascita della lex cryptographia
• Blockchain, e decentralizzazione dei maggiori assett geopolitici (energia, acqua, trasporti)
• Una digital economy dovrebbe avere un digital government, collaborativo e abilitante (il Partner State)
• Deficit democratico tra sviluppo tecnologico e capacità dei regolatori e della società di comprendere ed integrare questo fenomeno
• La sovranità politica reale è passata dai governi-stato al mercato finanziario
• Generalizzata scarsa fiducia nelle istituzioni classiche (EU, NATO, ONU ecc)
• Specificatamente alle nuove forme di economie digitali
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Fenomeni curiosi
Gap of Governance (caratteristica della peer to peer society e degli effetti post-globalizzazione) • La diffusione del potere porta alla nascita di entità para e meta-statali
alcuni esempi: • Le neo-tribù di nomadi digitali, • le primavere arabe • nuove forme di partiti politici ‘dal bassso’
• ritorno di alcune forme di nazionalismo e indipendentismo
• gattini digitali
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Le sfide intellettuali
• La fabbrica della mente (la commodificazione del tempo libero)
• verba volant scripta pure
• La fiducia, la flessibilità estrema del lavoro
• Constant learning
• and re-learning…
• Meno sicurezza, ma maggiori possibilità di riorganizzare lo stato sociale
• Abbracciare una tolleranza radicale rispetto alle differenze culturali
http://www.artisopensource.net/network/artisopensource/2014/10/18/the-factory-of-the-mind/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3w2C9nVURRc
http://www.chefuturo.it/2015/07/gig-economy-lavoro-digitale/
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Il Business Model Canvas
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il segreto di Pulcinella
Friendly First Contacts
“Problem” presentation
Customer Understanding Market Knowledge
test your problem hypothesis
Product Hypothesis
Customer & Problem Hypothesis
Distribution & Pricing Hypothesis
Demand Creation Hypothesis
Market Type Hypothesis
Competitive Hypothesis
state your hypotheses
First Reality Check
Product Presentation
Yet More Customer Visits
Second Reality Check 1st Advisory Board
test your product hypothesis
Verify the Problem
Verify the Product
Verify the Business Model Iterate or Exit
verify
> Customer Discovery step-by-step
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Customer Development road-map
Concept / Seed Product Development
Alpha / Beta Test
Launch / 1st Ship
Product Development road-map
Customer Discovery
Customer Validation
Customer Creation
Company Building
STOP STOP STOP
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Thanks!
Eugenio Battaglia - @battagliaem
• Governance & Organisation Design • Biotechnology • Blockchain Deployment • Distributed Leaderships • Research • Events
• OuiShare • Cocoon Projects • BioFlux.eu • RuralHub
Organizzazioni
Interessi
• Per critiche, info, suggerimenti [email protected] – 340/2556794