Roberto Zoboli

Università Cattolica

ASERI, ASA

Centro di Ateneo per la Dottrina Sociale delle Chiesa, ExpoLab

Dacci oggi il nostro pane quotidiano.

Tra crisi alimentare e nuove opportunità di sviluppo

Università Cattolica, Piacenza, 17 novembre 2011

Biocarburanti in crescita (produzione)

Bio = 2.7% dei carburanti nei trasporti 2010

Etanolo +17% nel 2010, +25% incremento medio 2005-2010

Biodiesel + 7% nel 2010, +38% incremento medio 2005-2010

Tassi di crescita inferiori a quelli, eccezionali, del solare ed eolico

Etanolo Produzione USA pari al 3% dell’offerta mondiale di

cereali

USA diventati esportatore netto (1,3 miliardi di litri)

Brasile perde quote sui mercati internazionali, in particolare in Europa

Francia e Germania maggiori produttori europei

Biodiesel 75% della produzione in 10 paesi

Europa 53% del totale

Rallentamento o diminuzione in alcuni paesi eruopei dovuto a competizione da Canada, Argentina, Indonesia

Germania principale produttore mondiale (2,9 miliardi di litri 2010) Consumo in Germania diminuito dopo abolizione del

credito di imposta, ma aumentato consumo di miscele con biodiesel

Maggiori incrementi produttivi Brasile, Argentina, Indonesia e Tailandia

Un mercato policy-driven EU: Direttiva 2009/28

20% di FER nel

consumo finale di energia 2020

Quota 2009: 11.6%

10% di biocarburanti nel consumo finale nei trasporti (target 2010: 5,75%)

Quota 2010: 4,7%

Obiettivi ancora lontani: FER in ulteriore forte crescita attesa in Europa

Consumo di biocarburanti nella EU27, 2000-2010: rapida crescita ma ancora da (più che) raddoppiare per arrivare al target 2020

Fattibilità tecnico-economica Biomassa

Fattibilità tecnica della Road Map 2007 per le FER largamente basata su Rapporto EEA 7/2006: ‘How much bioenergy can Europe produce without

harming the environment?’

Conclusione:

Ampio potenziale esistente, possibile raggiungere e superare target del Biomass Action Plan (150 Mtoe in 2010)

“(…) significant amounts of biomass can technically be available to support ambitious

renewable energy targets, even if strict environmental constraints are applied. The environmentally-compatible primary biomass potential increases from around 190 Mtoe in 2010 to around 295 Mtoe in 2030. This compares to a use of 69 Mtoe in 2003. The potential is sufficient to reach the European RES target in 2010, which requires an estimated 150 Mtoe of biomass use. It also allows ambitious future renewable energy targets beyond 2010. The bioenergy potential in 2030 represents around 15–16 % of the projected primary energy requirements of the EU-25 in 2030, and 17% of the current energy consumption, compared to a 4% share of bioenergy in 2003.” (EEA 2006)

Ma la conclusione dipendente criticamente da: - Assunzioni sulle politiche agricole

- Assunzioni sui prezzi di energia e CO2

Tutto il potenziale per i biocarburanti legato ad assunzioni su politiche e risposte allocative

della terra

“The main factors driving the increase

in bioenergy potential are productivity

increases and the assumed liberalisation

of the agricultural sector, which results in

additional area available for dedicated

bioenergy farming. Furthermore, with an

increase in carbon prices together with

high fossil fuel prices, bioenergy

feedstock becomes competitive over

time compared with traditional wood

industries or food crops.”

EEA Report No 7/2006. How much bioenergy can Europe produce without harming the environment?

“In the long-term, bioenergy crops from agriculture provide the largest potential. This development will be driven by: additional productivity increases; further liberalisation of agricultural markets; and the introduction of high-yield bioenergy crops. The environmentally-compatible bioenergy potential from agriculture can reach up to 142 MtOE by 2030, compared to 47 MtOE in 2010. About 85 % of the potential is to be found in only seven Member States (Spain, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Lithuania and Poland).” (EEA, 2006)

Dove è la terra?

OCSE (2006) AGRICULTURAL MARKET IMPACTS OF FUTURE GROWTH IN THE PRODUCTION OF BIOFUELS, Working Party on Agricultural Policies and Markets

Superficie agricola necessaria per raggiungere il 10% di biocombustibili sul totale consumato

Superficie agricola necessaria per produrre 1000 l di carburante equivalente con biocarburanti

OCSE (2006) AGRICULTURAL MARKET IMPACTS OF FUTURE GROWTH IN THE PRODUCTION OF BIOFUELS, Working Party on Agricultural Policies and Markets

• OCSE (2006): per quota 10% in Europa (UE-15) è necessario che il 72% della superficie agricola destinata alla produzione di cereali, oleaginose e colture zuccherine (43,9 Mha 2004) sia destinata a materie prime per biocarburanti (set-aside esclusi, tecnologie correnti, rendimenti medi)

• Nonostante EU sia molto produttiva ….

Con obiettivi ambiziosi, l’Europa deve importare da altri paesi, e andare in

competizione con la produzione alimentare

Fonte: Smeets E., Faaij A., Lewandowski I.; 2004

Potenziali complessivi per la produzione di bioenergia in 4 scenari (2050), EJ/anno

Competitività e costi dei biocarburanti

Fonte: Parlamento Europeo; 2007, BIOMASS AND BIOFUELS, A European Competitive and Innovative Edge

Competitività e costi dei biocarburanti

Costi del sostegno

OECD (2008), Biofuel Support Policies: An Economic Assessment

“In 2006 this support came to around USD 11 billion – a figure that is estimated to grow to USD 25 billion per year by around 2015.”

“However, the high level of policy support contributes

little to reduced greenhouse-gas emissions and other policy objectives, while it adds to a range of factors that raise international prices for food commodities.”

Effetti sui mercati internazionali: la crisi del 2007-2008 International Monetary Fund http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/faq/ffpfaqs.htm#q1

Q. What is happening with food and fuel prices in developing countries?

Food prices have risen by 45 percent since end-2006

Many prices reached record highs in current US$ terms—including those for crude oil, tin, nickel, soybeans, corn, and wheat. The surge was led by some major food crops (corn, wheat, and edible oil)

Crisi 2007-2008, International Monetary Fund http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/faq/ffpfaqs.htm#q1

Q. Why is this happening? A. Prices have been propelled by a mix of permanent and

temporary factors: Strong food demand from emerging economies …. accounts

for much of the increase in consumption … Rising biofuel production adds to the demand for corn and

rapeseeds oil, in particular, spilling over to other foods through demand and crop substitution effects. Almost half the increase in consumption of major food crops in 2007 was related to biofuels, mostly because of corn-based ethanol production in the US; and the new biofuel mandates in the US and the EU …… will continue to put pressure on prices.

Policy responses in some countries are exacerbating the problem …… export taxes, export bans, or other restrictions …..

Drought conditions in major wheat-producing countries …. Financial factors: the depreciating US$ increases purchasing

power of commodity users outside of the dollar area …..

Crisi 2007-2008, International Monetary Fund http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/faq/ffpfaqs.htm#q1

Q. What are the implications?

Headline inflation is up in many countries. This is a particular concern in developing countries where food expenditure shares exceed expenditure shares in other goods by a large margin. Food price increases accounted for almost 70 percent of 2007 headline inflation in emerging economies. …..

External balances of net commodity importers have deteriorated……..

The social implications of rising food prices can be severe for the urban poor. Some countries in Africa have recently had food price–related riots ….. Burkina Faso, …… Cameroon, ……. Niger

At the same time, external balances of net commodity exporters have improved. …..

FAO: World Food Day, 16 October 2011 ‘Food prices - from crisis to stability’ Instabilità e prezzi reali (di nuovo) crescenti

Food Price Index FAO: instabilità dopo lunga fase di stabilità

In termini reali: declino dagli anni ’60 fino primi anni 2000, inversione culminata nel 2007-2008, sceso nel 2009, riprende a salire nel 2010-2011

Conseguenze sui poveri Prezzi del cibo ai livelli pre-crisi + diminuzione del

reddito: effetti negativi su denutrizione

Conseguenze maggiori sui paesi poveri ed importatori di cibo; maggior parte in Africa

Andamento della denutrizione in Africa e Asia

Retroazioni globali/locali ‘Primavera araba’ e prezzo del cibo

riduzione del potenziale agricolo, instabilità climatica, cattive politiche dell’acqua: prezzi crescenti del cibo, rivolte

Cambiamento climatico e crisi politiche: CC cambia disponibilità acqua e raccolti, e spinge politiche per

energia/emissioni (FER)

che portano (globalmente) acqua e risorse agricole verso energia (idroelettrico e biocarburanti)

che portano ad aumenti dei prezzi

che portano a squilibri sociali

che portano a rivolte e crisi politiche

Vero? Qualche evidenza, ma concausa

Posizione FAO: pro e contro FAO's views on Bioenergy

Bioenergy offers many new opportunities, but if not managed carefully, it may also carry significant risks.

….. it is the manner in which bioenergy development is supported and regulated that determines whether or not bioenergy will be sustainable and how impacts are distributed.

FAO: Bioenergy and Food Security

The rising demand for liquid biofuels is one of several factors driving up commodity and food prices. Food and bioenergy crops are now competing for land, water and other resources in many parts of the world.

….. Higher food prices particularly affect the poorest segments of the population that spend a large share of their income on food.

….. But bioenergy also offers opportunities to increase incomes and employment in rural areas, provided that appropriate policies and investments are put in place to enable smallholders to take advantage of growing biofuels markets.

FAO: Bioenergy and Rural Development

…… New investment can provide market and employment opportunities for the 2.5 billion people dependent upon agriculture, which include most of the 900 million rural poor.

…… Modern bioenergy can also be a clean source of energy in rural areas that can provide new opportunities for modernisation of agriculture and the rural economy and improve access to modern energy services for households.

FAO: Bioenergy and the Environment

Unless appropriate safeguards are put in place bioenergy feedstock production can threaten biodiversity, and lead to the degradation of natural resources such as land and water.

The threat to wild biodiversity from bioenergy growth is associated primarily with land-use change.

…… A further concern is the introduction of invasive species for biofuel production.

……. Where perennial bioenergy feedstocks replace annual crops, the permanent cover and root formation will help improve soil management and reduce soil erosion.

FAO: Bioenergy and the International Policy Environment

Support policies in OECD countries have driven rapid growth in liquid biofuels when implications are still uncertain,

…. trade distortions have favored producers and production systems in OECD countries at the expense of producers in tropical countries where there is a natural comparative advantage.

These policies should be revised to become more market-oriented, eliminating distortions that create artificially high growth rates and hamper international trade for developing countries.

The global implications of biofuel policies for the environment, food security ……. highlight the importance of adopting an inter-governmental approach to bioenergy development that complements national measures.

Price Volatility in Food and Agricultural Markets: Policy Responses , Policy Report including contributions by, FAO, IFAD, IMF, OECD, UNCTAD, WFP, the World Bank, the WTO, IFPRI and the UN HLTF, 2 June 2011

Recommendation 6 G20 governments remove provisions of current national policies that

subsidize (or mandate) biofuels production or consumption. At the same time, governments should:

Open international markets so that renewable fuels and feed stocks can be produced where it is economically, environmentally and socially feasible to do so, and traded more freely.

Accelerate scientific research on alternative paths to reduced carbon emissions and to improved sustainability and energy security.

Encourage more efficient energy use, including in agriculture itself, without drawing on finite resources, including those needed for food production.

Failing a removal of support, G20 governments should develop contingency plans to adjust (at least temporarily) policies that stimulate biofuel production or consumption (in particular mandatory obligations) when global markets are under pressure and food supplies are endangered.

Ma i governi vanno avanti ….. June 23, 2011 G20 Agriculture ministers announced June 23 at a G20 meeting in

Paris that the group would remain supportive of biofuels policies. Just days before the meeting ethanol supporters had urged the group not to turn on biofuels, despite a report that had recommended G20 countries remove support for biofuels subsidies or mandates.

“Biofuels are a convenient bogeyman in the debate on food. We

welcome that the G20 was not prepared to opt for the easy option and recognized the wealth of evidence that show food prices are driven primarily by energy prices and financial speculation in food commodities markets”. http://www.ethanolproducer.com/articles/7912/g20-ag-ministers-will-stand-behind-biofuels-despite-report

Conclusioni ‘Competizione’ tra cibo ed energia da bio-risorse:

fattore strutturale del sistema agricolo ed energetico globale in futuro

Questione (e soluzione) tecnica?

Questione (e soluzione) politica?

Questione (e soluzione) etica?