Nuovi sistemi per l’Analisi del Rischio per le Infrastrutture

CriticheEISAC (European Infrastructures Simulation and Analysis Centre): proposta per la creazione di un

sistema federato europeo di Centri di Competenzaper l’Analisi e la Previsione del Rischio sulle IC

Vittorio ROSATOENEA Centro Ricerche Casaccia, RomaUnità Tecnica Modellistica Energetica e

Ambientale

The problem

• Critical Infrastructures

disruptions may cause

major economic and

societal impact and may

cascade through CI

dependencies.

• Resilience of strategic

assets (energetic and telco

networks, roads and

railways, gas and water

pipelines etc.) is a primary

concern of Nations as they

provide essential services

to citizens

The approach The solution

Objectives

• Improving Risk analysis

• Prediction of natural

events (in particular

LFHC) from multi-

sources

• Estimating impacts and

consequences from

prediction of damages

• Stress testing

• Supporting cross-border

data exchange and

interaction for dealing

with large crises

• A new DSS enabling the

multi-source prediction of

events, of their impacts on

physical elements and on

the services they supply, of

the consequences of faults

on citizens, environment,

industrial sectors.

• What-if analysis system for

stress testing and impact

analysis

• Insert these (and other)

tools in a constellation of

federated National Centres

of Competences on CIP

International contextAUSTRALIA

Critical Infrastructure Program for Modelling and Analysis (CIPMA)13 M€/yr

governmental facilitation of cross CI sector analysisin a joint public-private approach to increase CI sector resilience

USA

National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) 60 M$/yr

serves as a “source of national expertise to address CIP” research and analysis

prepares and shares analyses of CI, including their dependencies, vulnerabilities, consequences, and other complexities

warm & hot phase support: Homeland Infrastructure Threat and Risk Analysis Center (HITRAC)

e.g. response to Katrina, Rita and Sandy

National and International collaboration

Around the project of creating a federated constellation ofCompetence Centers on Risk Analysis for the Protection ofCritical Infrastructures, we have been able to mobilize EU andNational resources, through the proposition and the funding oftwo different projects:

- The EU (FP7) CIPRNet (Critical Infrastructures

Preparedness and Resilience Research Network)

devoted to the technical realization of a number of

asset to boost the Competence Centers

- The MIUR (Call Smart City) RoMA (Resilience

enhancement of a Metropolitan Area), for (among

other) the testing of such technological assets on a

metropolitan area (Roma Capitale and Regione Lazio)

The Decision Support SystemThe goals of the Decision Support System (DSS) is to provide P.A., operatorsand stakeholders of a tool enabling to enhance the resilience of their systems.

The keyword is prediction: the DSS will operate for timely connecting theprediction of the different manifestations of natural events to the assessment of

• the physical damages they can produce on CI

• the impacts that harms can have in the release of services of the whole

set of dependent CI

• the consequences that service(s) failures of CI may have on

• citizens,

• services

• industrial sectors

• environment

DSS workflow1. Analysis of weather conditions 2. Adoption of specific high resolution

models3. Implement nowcasting data for

accurate short term predictions4. Acquisition of earthquakes alerts

and shakemaps5. Release of Predicted Harm Scenario 6. Sending harm Scenario to CI

Operators7. Elaboration of CI response on

"system of systems” models8. Release of Impact scenario9. Estimate consequences on

a. Populationb. services c. the industrial systemd. the environment

10. Release of Risk Prediction on National CI (RPCI)

Weather related risks

Risk analysis on the electrical distribution system based on rain abundance predicted bynowcasting. Data are crossed with cabins vulnerability indices and an expected harmscenario is issued.

Weather related risks

After a fine-grain analysis of the stricken areas, cabins with above-threshold probability ofbeing damaged are prompted to the attention. The Impact of their losses in the“economy” of the CI they belong to is then evaluated to appropriate models.

Weather related risks

x

SS_LINE_1

Residential (FU)

Hospital (FU)

x

x

SS_LINE_2

Residential (FU)

Hospital (FU)

Water Pump

(SAU) x

+

HV

HV

Water Pump

(SAU)

Telco BTS

(PAU)

Telco BTS

(PAU)

Through the use of coarse-grain scenario models, the DSS is able to predict the impacts caused by direct losses of services and by the losses associated to cascading effects.

Weather related risks

CI operators, other than being reported on the harm scenario, the expected impacts on services, the consequences that the predicted losses of services will induce on population, primary services, industrial sector and the environment, will be supplied by further info (i.e. the expected power extracted by photovoltaic roofs in specific areas) for the support to the solution of possible energetic crisis induced by the expected outages.

Weather related risks

For the management of shorter time crises, CI operators could also be let aware of the traffic expected on given areas at a specific hour of the day, taken from ad-hoc predictions made on the bases of historical series and current traffic development

ConclusionsThe EU NoE CIPRNet is working to boost Europe of federated Centers for CIRisk Analysis (EISACs), to provide a 24/7 operational service devoted toenhance system’s resilience, acting aside the Civil Protection Depts.

To this aim, a large effort is going to be produced on the technological side, byconnecting state-of-the-art technologies in different domains (natural eventsforecast, simulation of complex dependent technological systems, analysis ofstructural vulnerabilities, prediction of impact and 360° consequencesanalysis).

A national project (project RoMA, Resilience enhancement of MetropolitanAreas) will fund the realization of a first seed of the I-EISAC centre byimplementing CIPRNet and RoMA technological outcomes and by making afirst, significant test case on Lazio Region infrastructures.

Thanks for the attention

vittorio.rosato@enea.it

www.ciprnet.eu

www.progetto-roma.org