Mexico Julian Miglierini

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Mexico Julian Miglierini

| INDEPENDENT THINKING ON INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

HEWORLDTODAY.ORG MARCH 2011

Over the last four years, Mexicans have learnt thatwaging a war against organised crime not only

takes a toll on human life at home, but also impactson the complex and sometimes ambivalentrelationship with their northern neighbour.

Cracking



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A P P H O T O / B E R N A R D O D E N I Z

THEWORLDTODAY.ORG MARCH 2011

tHERE HAVE BEEN PROMISES TO WORK

together against the drug traffickers, triggered

by fears in Washington that the

violence will spill over into United States (US)

territory, and an acknowledgement by both

countries that they share responsibility for the

problem. Thebattle against thedrug gangs in Mexico has cometo dominate the bilateral relationship.

InDecember 2006,Mexican President Felipe Calderon, who

had just been inaugurated after a tightly contested presidential

election, launched a head-on crack down on the drugtraffickers

who use Mexico to get illegal narcotics into the US. More than

four years on, nearly 35,000 people have been killed in drug-

related violence and an increasing number of Mexican states -

many of them along the border with the US - have

beenengulfed in the conflict. Meanwhile, there is little evidence

that the flow of drugs into America has slowed or that thecartels in Mexico are weakening. With 15,273 people killed in

2010 alone - the bloodiest year of the offensive -many sectors of

Mexican society are calling for a change in the government’s

strategy.

Washington, however, has firmly supported Calderon’s

policies, celebrating successes like the capture or killing of

several high profile drug barons, and providing close

cooperation in the shape of financial aid, intelligence sharing

and provision of surveillance equipment.US Secretary of State

Hillary Clinton used a recent visit to Mexico - the third in two

years- to provide yet another ringing endorsement. Describing

herself as a “fan” of President Calderon, she said that thereis “no

alternative” to the military confrontation against thetraffickers.

TURBULENCEWashington may applaud the strategy, but there have been

signs recently that the US is concerned at the lack of tangible

results. Clinton herself, speaking at a think tank in Washington

last September, said that drug cartels in Mexico are showing

more and more signs of becoming “an insurgency” and that

Mexico is increasingly looking like the drug-ravaged Colombia

of the 1980s. The comparison irked the Mexican government,

which categorically denied Clinton’s statement, and President

Barack Obama himself came out to play down the remarks

made by his Secretary of State.

In February, the Under Secretary of the Army, Joseph

Westphal, raised similar concerns during a session at the

University of Utah.When asked about the areas of concern for

US foreign policy, hereferred to“a form of insurgency in Mexico

with the drugs cartels that’s right on our border,” and added,

“this is about, potentially, a takeover of government by

individuals who are corrupt.” Again the outrage from Mexican

officials forced Westphalto issue a statement retractingwhat he

called his “inaccurate” comments.

Probably the harshest words by US officials regarding thesecurity situation in Mexico emerged in documents that were

never meant to be read by the general public. The diplomatic

cables from the US embassy in Mexico City, released by

WikiLeaks,reflected increasing dismay among US officials over

Mexico’s lack of progress in its combat against drug trafficking

organisations.Some of the wires harshly criticised specific parts

of the effort.The Mexican army was describedas “slow and risk

averse”, and cooperation between Mexico’s security agencieswas

lambasted, with institutions like the Army, Navy and Federal

Police, as one of the wires said, “often locked in a zero-sum

competition in which oneagency’ssuccess is viewed as another’s

failure, information is closely guarded and joint operations areall but unheard of.”

The cables released, however, did include praise for Mexico’s

tough approach to the criminal groups, and they urged for

further bilateral cooperation. Through the Merida Initiative,

A state policemanstands next to aburnt-out bus onthe outskirts of Guadalajara,

Mexico.

Down



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| INDEPENDENT THINKING ON INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

HEWORLDTODAY.ORG MARCH 2011

Mexico already has received millions of dollars

from Washington in equipment, training, and joint work in

special operations. Although the financial aid has not been

delivered at the pace that many Mexicans hoped for when the

initiative was first launched in 2007, US support is believed to

have been crucial, for example, in captures of drug barons likeArturo Beltran Leyva in December 2009.

Few think thiswillchangeafter, in mid-February of this year,

two agents of the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement

agency assigned in Mexico City were shot by unknown

assailantsas they were driving from the Mexican capital to the

northern city of Monterrey. One of the agents, Jaime Zapata,

was killed, and the other was injured.It may take some time to

know whether that attack has any link with organised crime;

both countries quickly promised to cooperate to bring the

perpetrators to justice. This presented a stark difference from

the 1985 killing on Mexican soil of Enrique Camarena, a US

Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) official, at the hands of drug

cartel members. That murder and the investigations thatfollowed - in which Mexican officials were accused by the US of

protecting the killers - caused deep strains between both

governments, bringing the bilateral relationship to a historic

low.

SHARED PROBLEM, SHARED SOLUTION?

Under the Obama administration, Mexico has achieved an

important discursive milestone: US officials now openly admit

to a‘shared responsibility’ relating to the drug traffickers.As the

world’s largest consumer ofillegal narcotics, the US’s seemingly

insatiable demand is acknowledged asan importantpart of the

problem.There is also the issue of weapons. It is now widely accepted

that themajority of thefirearms used by thecartels are bought in

the US. The criminals take advantage of the liberal gun

ownership laws there and then smuggle their purchases

JULIAN MIGLIERINI

is BBC Correspondent

for Mexico and

Central America.

back into Mexico. Since 2006, Mexico has confiscated almost

100,000 weapons from the cartels - and, according to a 2009

report by the US Government Accountability Office, more than

ninety percent of firearms seized in Mexico between 2006 and

2009 came from the US. This is why President Calderon has

pushed for tougher gun control laws in the US, suchasreinstating the ban on assault weapons that expired in 2004

and was never renewed by American authorities.

With presidential elections due in both countries in 2012,

and the gloomy forecasts of an increase in the violence, the

Mexican drug traffickers are likely to be on both electoral

agendas. Trying to ensure victory for his centre-right National

Action Party, Calderon will most probably focus on the

achievements of what is set to

become the main legacy of his sixyear

administration:19 of 37 drug barons

captured or killed so far; more than

ten billion dollars worth of narcotics

confiscated from the cartels; and

some dents in the financial strength

of the cartels, whose business

amounts to an estimated forty billion

dollars everyyear.

But even if both countries can

point to some successes to offset the

high death toll, the continuing

violence, the inexhaustible demand

and supplyof drugsand the stream of

replacement Mexican drug lords, the

US and the region as a whole face a

profound challenge. While the

Andean nations continue to supply

most of the narcotics and

asthecriminal groups feel the heat of

the Mexican government’s offensive, they simply move their

operations elsewhere. While the Caribbean continues to battle

similar problems, there are strong indications that the cartels

are using several countries inCentral America as a new base for

their operations. Weaker states, laxer security enforcement

and frailinstitutions in Guatemala, El Salvador andHonduras,

combined with existing widespread corruption, providethe traffickers with the ideal setting for their illegal

business. Washington is well aware and on his

forthcoming visit to Latin America, President Obama will skip

Mexico and head directly to Central America’s smallest nation -

El Salvador, a country already grappling with one of the highest

homicide rates in the world. For many, this is yet another

indication that the ‘drugs war’ being fought in Latin

America is not going to be wonanytime soon.

AP

PHOTO/DARIO

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Mexico Julian Miglierini

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