Le tecnologie Le tecnologie dell’allarme precoce dell’allarme precoce e la gestione e la gestione dei rischi naturalidei rischi naturali

““La gestione del tempo nella prevenzione dei rischi La gestione del tempo nella prevenzione dei rischi naturali”naturali”

Venerdì 28 Novembre 2003Institut français de Naples “Le Grenoble”

Paolo Gasparini

Dipartimento di Scienze FisicheUniversità di Napoli “Federico II”

CRdC – AMRA

““Le tecnologie dell’allarme Le tecnologie dell’allarme precoce e la gestione dei rischi precoce e la gestione dei rischi

naturali”naturali”

Le tecnologie Le tecnologie dell’allarme precoce dell’allarme precoce e la gestione e la gestione dei rischi naturalidei rischi naturali

All the actionsactions which can be carried out during the lead time lead time of a catastrophic eventcatastrophic event in order to mitigate its effectsto mitigate its effects.

EARLY WARNINGEARLY WARNING

Le tecnologie Le tecnologie dell’allarme precoce dell’allarme precoce e la gestione e la gestione dei rischi naturalidei rischi naturali

The time elapsing from the moment when the occurrence of a catastrophic event is reasonably certain till the moment the event really occurs.

LEAD TIMELEAD TIME

Le tecnologie Le tecnologie dell’allarme precoce dell’allarme precoce e la gestione e la gestione dei rischi naturalidei rischi naturali

Event SourceEvent Source Considered areaConsidered area

Propagation PathPropagation Path

Le tecnologie Le tecnologie dell’allarme precoce dell’allarme precoce e la gestione e la gestione dei rischi naturalidei rischi naturali

AUTOMATIC AUTOMATIC EARTHQUAKES:EARTHQUAKES: seconds to tens of secondsseconds to tens of seconds

TSUNAMIS:TSUNAMIS: minutes to hoursminutes to hours

METEROLOGICAL EVENTS:METEROLOGICAL EVENTS: hours to dayshours to days

FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES:FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES: hours to dayshours to days

VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS:VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS: hours to weekshours to weeks

ALERT + INFORMATIONALERT + INFORMATION

ALERT + INFORMATIONALERT + INFORMATION

COPING CAPACITYCOPING CAPACITY

COPING CAPACITYCOPING CAPACITY

TYPICAL LEAD TIMES TYPICAL LEAD TIMES

MOST SIGNIFICANT ACTIONSMOST SIGNIFICANT ACTIONS

Le tecnologie Le tecnologie dell’allarme precoce dell’allarme precoce e la gestione e la gestione dei rischi naturalidei rischi naturali

CHRONOLOGYCHRONOLOGY 

1855:1855: Palmieri seismograph 1868:1868: The Concept of an early warning system was proposed by J.D. Cooper for San Francisco.

18801880 Milne seismograph18851885 Theory of Rayleigh surface waves 18991899 Oldham and Wiechert identify P and S waves as elastic waves19101910 Reid elastic rebound theory for the 1906 San Francisco earthquake 19111911 Theory and identification of Love surface waves19351935 Richter Magnnitude scale 19651965: Japan national railways installed an instrumental early warning system toprotect the Tohoku Shinkansen line (threshold at PGA = 0.04 g at 5 Hz) 19821982: Implementation of the improved UrEDAS system (detection of P-waves) toprotect the Tokado Shinkansen line and since 1992 in California (1994 Northridge earthquake) 19921992: Implementation of Seismic Alert System for Mexico City 19941994: CUBE and REDI seismic warning systems in Southern and Northern California  19961996: Implementation of the Taiwan Rapid Earthquake Information System

SEISMIC EARLY WARNING SEISMIC EARLY WARNING

Le tecnologie Le tecnologie dell’allarme precoce dell’allarme precoce e la gestione e la gestione dei rischi naturalidei rischi naturali

 -         TRINET Project in Southern California

-         Feasibility study for Istanbul

-         Feasibility study for Bucharest

-         Feasibility study for Armenia

SYSTEMS IN PROGRESS SYSTEMS IN PROGRESS

Le tecnologie Le tecnologie dell’allarme precoce dell’allarme precoce e la gestione e la gestione dei rischi naturalidei rischi naturali

Le tecnologie Le tecnologie dell’allarme precoce dell’allarme precoce e la gestione e la gestione dei rischi naturalidei rischi naturali

 

Japan Shinkansen linesJapan Shinkansen lines = 0 to 10 s

Mexico CityMexico City = 65 - 72 s

Taiwan Taiwan = tens of s

Istanbul Istanbul = 0 to 70 s

Bucharest Bucharest = 25 s

TYPICAL LEAD TIMES TYPICAL LEAD TIMES

Le tecnologie Le tecnologie dell’allarme precoce dell’allarme precoce e la gestione e la gestione dei rischi naturalidei rischi naturali

INDUSTRYINDUSTRYSensitive industries - Life lines

Computer facilities - High tech industry

PUBLIC WARNINGPUBLIC WARNINGSchools - Media

Business centres - Hospital

Emergency services

Disaster Management

Relief Organisations

TRASPORTATIONTRASPORTATIONBridges – metro

Trains - Aeroplanes

Le tecnologie Le tecnologie dell’allarme precoce dell’allarme precoce e la gestione e la gestione dei rischi naturalidei rischi naturali

Seismic network to detect the signals;

- Data processing system to identify

location and magnitude of the

earthquake;

- Warning information transmitter;

- Warning information receiver and processor;

- Automatic system.

SEISMIC EARLY WARNING SEISMIC EARLY WARNING

INSTRUMENTSINSTRUMENTS

Le tecnologie Le tecnologie dell’allarme precoce dell’allarme precoce e la gestione e la gestione dei rischi naturalidei rischi naturali

Le tecnologie Le tecnologie dell’allarme precoce dell’allarme precoce e la gestione e la gestione dei rischi naturalidei rischi naturali

Japan:Japan:

• installed along all rail tracks

• shut off power when horizontal acceleration exceeds a threshold

Front detection: deployed along coast gives ~15 sec warning

I. Alarm seismometers

II. UrEDAS

• event parameters determined from the P-arrival

Protecting Bullet TrainsProtecting Bullet Trains

Le tecnologie Le tecnologie dell’allarme precoce dell’allarme precoce e la gestione e la gestione dei rischi naturalidei rischi naturali

Japan: Protecting Bullet TrainsJapan: Protecting Bullet Trains

1. Trigger on P-arrivals

2. Use predominant period in first 3 seconds to determine magnitude

3. Knowing the magnitude and amplitude, epicentral distance is estimated

4. Azimuth of P-arrival and epicentral distance gives event location

At P-arrival + 3 sec have an estimate of event location and magnitude

5. S minus P time used to improve the epicentral distance estimate

…switching to event parameter determination from the P-arrival

II. UrEDASII. UrEDAS

Le tecnologie Le tecnologie dell’allarme precoce dell’allarme precoce e la gestione e la gestione dei rischi naturalidei rischi naturali

Seismic Alert System: Mexico CitySeismic Alert System: Mexico City

• developed in 1989 in the wake of the 1985 Michoacan earthquake

• 12 stations along coast

• station data transmitted to central processing in Mexico City

• warning issued when two stations indicate an event greater than magnitude 5

• ~300 km allows ~60 sec warning

300 km

“Front detection”

Le tecnologie Le tecnologie dell’allarme precoce dell’allarme precoce e la gestione e la gestione dei rischi naturalidei rischi naturali

Le tecnologie Le tecnologie dell’allarme precoce dell’allarme precoce e la gestione e la gestione dei rischi naturalidei rischi naturali

Guerrero earthquake Guerrero earthquake

• magnitude 7.3

• event successfully detected and an alert issued

• 72 sec warning

• no real damage in Mexico City

September 14, 1995September 14, 1995

Le tecnologie Le tecnologie dell’allarme precoce dell’allarme precoce e la gestione e la gestione dei rischi naturalidei rischi naturali

Taiwan: Taiwan:

Use classical network processing approach:

• P-arrival used for event detection and conformation

• S-arrival needed for magnitude determination

Wu and Teng, 2002

use sub-nets to reduce wait time (circles on map)

System processing time: 20-30 seconds

Earthquake early warningEarthquake early warning

Le tecnologie Le tecnologie dell’allarme precoce dell’allarme precoce e la gestione e la gestione dei rischi naturalidei rischi naturali

Chi-Chi earthquake: Chi-Chi earthquake:

Wu and Teng, in press

Example of how the system would have worked for this event:

Warning issued after 22 sec

Useful for regions more than 75km from epicenter

September 20, 1999 magnitude 7.6 2,456 casualties

Triangles represent population distribution

warning timeswarning times

Le tecnologie Le tecnologie dell’allarme precoce dell’allarme precoce e la gestione e la gestione dei rischi naturalidei rischi naturali

135 available stations with:

• broadband and strong motion sensors

• capable of on-site processing

• parameter transit times < 1sec

TriNetTriNet 1. Seismic infrastructure

Le tecnologie Le tecnologie dell’allarme precoce dell’allarme precoce e la gestione e la gestione dei rischi naturalidei rischi naturaliElarmS timelineElarmS timeline

Earthquake alarm system

Le tecnologie Le tecnologie dell’allarme precoce dell’allarme precoce e la gestione e la gestione dei rischi naturalidei rischi naturali

ElarmS capabilitiesElarmS capabilitiesSummary:

We are currently testing ElarmS, it will:

• provide 0 to 2 seconds warning of peak ground motion to people directly above the earthquake epicenter

• provide approx. 10 seconds warning to people 30 km from the epicenter

The certainty of the predicted ground motion increases as the warning time decrease.• users must decide their uncertainty

tolerance and their sensitivity to warning time

Le tecnologie Le tecnologie dell’allarme precoce dell’allarme precoce e la gestione e la gestione dei rischi naturalidei rischi naturali

ISTANBULISTANBUL

Le tecnologie Le tecnologie dell’allarme precoce dell’allarme precoce e la gestione e la gestione dei rischi naturalidei rischi naturali

Potential Sources for Earthquakes larger than M 5.5 in ItalyPotential Sources for Earthquakes larger than M 5.5 in ItalyIntegrated Seismogenic Source dataset and Tectonic LineamentsIntegrated Seismogenic Source dataset and Tectonic Lineaments

Le tecnologie Le tecnologie dell’allarme precoce dell’allarme precoce e la gestione e la gestione dei rischi naturalidei rischi naturali

Accelerometers and high frequency seism

Accelerometers and broad band seism

CRdC-AMRA CRdC-AMRA

MULTICOMPONENT SEISMIC NETWORKMULTICOMPONENT SEISMIC NETWORK

Le tecnologie Le tecnologie dell’allarme precoce dell’allarme precoce e la gestione e la gestione dei rischi naturalidei rischi naturali

Lion’s Gate BridgeLion’s Gate Bridge

Le tecnologie Le tecnologie dell’allarme precoce dell’allarme precoce e la gestione e la gestione dei rischi naturalidei rischi naturali

Rete Nazionale dei GasdottiRete Nazionale dei Gasdotti

Le tecnologie Le tecnologie dell’allarme precoce dell’allarme precoce e la gestione e la gestione dei rischi naturalidei rischi naturali

Ignalina nuclear power plant Ignalina nuclear power plant (Lithuania)(Lithuania)