CRESCO SPIII Analisi e Simulazione di Reti Tecnologiche Complesse e delle loro Interdipendenze...

CRESCO SPIII

Analisi e Simulazione di Reti Tecnologiche Complesse e delle loro Interdipendenze

CRESCO SPIII

Analisi e Simulazione di Reti Tecnologiche Complesse e delle loro Interdipendenze

SANDRO BOLOGNA

[email protected]

SANDRO BOLOGNA

[email protected]

CRESCO SPIII Review MeetingPortici, 23 Ottobre, 2006

Esempi di Reti Tecnologiche Complesse

– Energia (rete di olio e gas, rete elettrica, …)

– Informazione & Comunicazione (reti informatiche e di telecomunicazione

– Trasporto (reti stradale, aeree, navali, ferroviarie,….)

– Servizi (reti idriche, sanitarie,..)

Fin

an

cia

l Se

rvic

es

Mutato contesto socio-economico

Pu

blic

Utilitie

s

He

alth

Ca

re

Te

lec

om

mu

nic

atio

n

Infrastrutture verticalmente integrate. Sistemi praticamente autonomi con limitati punti di contatto con le altre infrastrutture

Cyberspace

Ele

ctri

c Po

wer

Net

Hea

lth C

are

Mon

itori

ng S

yste

ms

Fina

ncia

l Ser

vice

s

?

Publ

ic U

tiliti

es

CyberspaceCyberspace

Ele

ctri

c Po

wer

Net

Ele

ctri

c Po

wer

Net

Hea

lth C

are

Hea

lth C

are

Mon

itori

ng S

yste

ms

Mon

itori

ng S

yste

ms

Fina

ncia

l Ser

vice

sFi

nanc

ial S

ervi

ces

??

Publ

ic U

tiliti

esPu

blic

Util

ities

Infrastrutture fortemente integrate ed interdipendenti e che si basano su un ambiente condiviso

The UCTE System:

2100 Twh delivered to 400 ML people

UNION FOR THE CO-ORDINATION OF TRANSMISSION OF ELECTRICITY

EUROPE GAS CRISIS WINTER 2006

NETWORK STATE OVERVIEW & ROOT CAUSES

CyberCyber

LayerLayer

Organisational Organisational LayerLayer

Intra-dependency

Inter-dependency

Three Layers Model for the Critical Infrastructure

Physical Physical

LayerLayer

Three Layers Model for the Electrical InfrastructureThree Layers Model for the Electrical Infrastructure

Electrical ComponentsElectrical Componentsgenerators, transformers, breakers,generators, transformers, breakers,

connecting cables etcconnecting cables etc

Control and supervisory hardware/software components

(Scada/EMS systems)

Electrical Power OperatorsIndependent System Operator

for electricity planning and transmission

Intra-dependency

National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure

Telecomunication Infrastructure

Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure

Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure

Inter-dependency

US CANADA BLACK-OUTPower System Outage Task Force Interim Report

CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities

Topology Model and Topology Model and AnalysisAnalysis

nodes and arcs in the netnodes and arcs in the net

State Machine Model and Analysis

processes and links in the netprocesses and links in the net





Interdependency Model Interdependency Model and Simulationand Simulation

all the links with the other netsall the links with the other nets

Organizational ModelOrganization, operators behaviourOrganization, operators behaviour

Riconfig and Optimiz Modelprocesses and links in the netprocesses and links in the net













will make use of the latest results on complex systems theory to analyse the network’s property and to understand the emergent

behaviors that can take place in the network


COMPLEX SYSTEMS APPROACHRecent researches on large-scale networks make evident of some global

properties which are not pre-specified by network design and are difficult or impossible to predict from knowledge of its constituent parts.

(Barabasi, Strogatz, Watts,…)

Poisson distribution

Random Network

Power-law distribution

Scale-free Network

Present limitations of Complex Systems approach

Given a network with N nodes and L links

Create a graph with statistically identical topology

RESULT: model the static network topology

PROBLEM: Real networks are dynamical systems!

Evolving networksOBJECTIVE: capture the network dynamics

METHOD :• identify the processes that contribute to the network topology

•develop dynamical models that capture these processes

Network as a static graph

Università degli Studi di Catania, Facoltà di Scienze Matematiche, Fisiche e Naturali, Dipartimento di Fisica ed Astronomia, Prof. Vito Latora

PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-1












Riconfig and Optimiz Model processes and links in the netprocesses and links in the net

will make use of complementary risk assessment methods to estimate the probability of unwanted

incident that may lead to undesired states


Modelling tools for dependability analysis

Model checking

Extended Petri Nets

Fault Tree

Bayesian networks

Università degli Studi di Lecce, Dipartimento di Matematica, Prof.ssa Paola Vocca

Università degli Studi del Piemonte Orientale, Dipartimento di Informatica, Prof. Andrea Bobbio














will make use of analytical approaches to optimize the network in the presence of different

type of constraintsOrganizational ModelOrganization, operators behaviourOrganization, operators behaviour

Distribution Network

RO MIX

X

TRANSPORTATION NETWORK

X

X

Università degli Studi di Salerno, Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell'Informazione e Matematica Applicata: Prof. Ciro D’Apice

Università degli Studi di Palermo, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Informatica,Prof. Antonio Chella














will model the organization and the operator

behaviour to study organizational vulnerability


SOCIO-COGNITIVE ENGINEERING APPROACH: Human Errors

Copy rights: High-Intelligence & Decision Research Group, CAMO, ENEA, http://erg4146.casaccia.enea.it Author: Adam Maria Gadomski, 8/10/2003

Large Complex Critical Infrastructure (LCCI)

Technological Grid

Human Errors

Organisation

Human component

Physical component

Cyber component

http://erg4146.casaccia.enea.it/

Università degli Studi di Roma “Tor Vergata”, Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell’Impresa, Prof. Lucio Bianco

ECONA - Centro Interuniversitario di Ricerca sull’Elaborazione Cognitiva nei Sistemi Naturali e Artificiali, Prof.ssa Marta Olivetti Belardinelli














will establish probable correlation among different networks to understand cascading

failures or unknown and emergent behaviours


Oil

Electric

Power

Transpor-tation

NaturalGas

Telecom

Water

Water forProduction

CoolingEmission reduction

Water for Cooling,Emission reduction

Water for Cooling,

Power for pumpingStations, StorageControl Systems

Power for Pump& Lift Stations

Control Systems

Power for Switchers

Power for compressorsStorage, Control Systems

Power for Signalling, Switchers

SCADACommunications

SCADACommunications

SCADACommunications

SCADACommunications

Fuel for Generators,

Heat

Source:“Critic. Infrastruct Dependencies”

Rinaldi, Peerenboom,Kelly2002

Fuel for Generators,,Lubricants

Fuels, Lubricants

Fuels, Lubricants

Fuel for Generators,

Fuel TransportShipping

Fuel TransportShipping

Transportation

Transpor-tation

Modelling Networked Infrastructures Interdependencies

Università degli Studi di Roma "Tor Vergata", Dipartimento di Informatica, Sistemi e Produzione, Prof. Salvatore Tucci

C.R.I.A.I. Consorzio Campano di Ricerca per l’Informatica e l’Automazione Industriale, Prof. Giorgio Ventre

Università Campus Bio-medico di Roma, Facoltà di Ingegneria, Prof. Roberto Setola (Università degli Studi del Sannio, Dipartimento di Ingegneria, Prof. Luigi Glielmo)


National InfrastructureSimulation and Analysis Center

CRESCO SPIII Analisi e Simulazione di Reti Tecnologiche Complesse e delle loro Interdipendenze...

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