Normal Heat Hours and phenology

Gabriele Cola (1), Roberto Caterisano(2), Paola Cirone (2), Massimiliano Ghironi (3), Beatrice Pesenti Barili (3), Luigi Mariani (1), Osvaldo

Failla (1)(1) Università degli Studi di Milano - DiProVe.

(2) Agenzia Regionale per lo Sviluppo e per i Servizi in Agricoltura della Calabria

(3) Centro di Agrometeorologia Applicata Regionale della Regione Liguria

III Convegno Nazionale Iphen - Roma - Orto Botanico - 3 Marzo 2011

Biological time expressed by means of

THERMAL UNITS (TU)(Tmed-Cmin)/2

FROM THERMAL TIME TO BIOLOGICAL TIME

FROM THERMAL TIME TO BIOLOGICAL TIMENORMAL HEAT HOURS (NHH)

Response function

T - developement.

Beta Function (Wang & Engel, 1998)

Temperature Response Model (Weikai & Hunt, 1999)

MIN

OPT1 OPT2

MAX

OLIVE: subtropical fruit tree or shrub of great longevity.

PLACE OF ORIGIN OF THIS SPECIES: between southern Turkey and northern Syria. The olive was spread throughout the Mediterranean Basin by Phoenicians, Greeks and Romans.

IN THE LAST CENTURIES: spread to the whole world areas with Mediterranean like climates (Koeppen's Cs), in areas bertween 30 and 40° of North and South latitude; however olive is cultivated in many other areas with climates that do not fit under this designation (Denney et al., 1985).

OLIVE TREE - ECOLOGICAL OUTLOOK

F. sans-Cortez et al., 2002

MAIN PHENOLOGICAL STAGES

F. Sanz-Cortéz et al., 2002

00 07

09 11

336865

57

53 55

60

71 79

81 89

92

MAIN PHENOLOGICAL STAGES

OLIVE BBCH

OLIVE BBCH

BBCH DESCRIPTION2 Foliar buds disclosure

9External small leaves opening further with their tips inter

crossing.

31 Shoots reach 10% of final size

52 Inflorescence buds open. Flower cluster development starts.

54 Flower cluster growing

55Flower cluster totally expanded. Floral buds start to open.

Mignolatura

58The corolla, longer than calyx, starts to change the color

from green to white

61 Beginning of flowering: 10% of flowers open

65 Full flowering: at least 50% of flowers open

69 End of flowering, fruit set, non-fertilized ovaries fallen

71 Fruit size about 10% of final size

73 Fruit size about 30% of final size

75Fruit size about 50% of final size. Stone starts to lignificate

(it shows cutting resistance)

81 Beginning of fruit colouring

85 Increasing of specific fruit colouring

89 Harvest maturity

Name Site Region Cv COOX COOY MSL PERIOD

SP01Ponzano Basso (villa Pratola) Liguria various 9.9205 44.1481 20 2000/2009

GE01 Caperana Liguria lavagnina 9.3413 44.3356 150 2008,2009

GE02 Pieve Alta Liguria pignola 9.0945 44.3764 235 2008,2009

IM01 Cornai Liguria taggiasca 8.013 44.0625 190 2008,2009

IM02 Costa Liguria taggiasca 8.0612 43.9289 120 2008,2009

SV01 Ranzi, Castellari Liguria colombaia 8.2632 44.1476 50 2009,2010

SV02 Viarzo Liguria pignola 8.3895 44.3 160 2009,2010

CS01 cerchiara Calabria carolea 16.4098 39.8212 99 2000/2010

CS01 montalto uffugo Calabria carolea 16.2167 39.6542 250 2000/2010

CZ01 zagarise Calabria carolea 16.65 38.992 508 2000/2010

CZ02 zagarise Calabria carolea 16.7088 38.9497 450 2000/2010

RC01 siderno Calabria carolea 16.2517 38.2697 58 2000/2010

MODEL CALIBRATIONDataset: Experimental site of Santo Stefano Magra (SP)

Period: 2000 - 2010

CALIBRATION APPROACHFixed cardinal minimum temperature = 6 °C

Variable first cardinal optimal temperature = 15 – 25 °CVariable first cardinal optimal temperature = 20 – 35 °CVariable cardinal maximum temperature = 30 – 40 °C

1132 COMBINATIONS1132 linear models based on NHH sums thresholds

Starting date: January 1st

MODEL CHOICE BASED ON STATISTICAL INDEXES(MAE, RRMSE, R2)

NHHsum

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

600001

/01/

00

15/0

1/00

29/0

1/00

12/0

2/00

26/0

2/00

11/0

3/00

25/0

3/00

08/0

4/00

22/0

4/00

06/0

5/00

20/0

5/00

03/0

6/00

17/0

6/00

01/0

7/00

15/0

7/00

29/0

7/00

12/0

8/00

26/0

8/00

09/0

9/00

23/0

9/00

07/1

0/00

21/1

0/00

04/1

1/00

18/1

1/00

02/1

2/00

16/1

2/00

30/1

2/00

date

NHHs

um

BBCH 52 – 928 NHH

BBCH 65 – 1566 NHH

BBCH 75 – 2855 NHH

BBCH NHHsum52 92854 111155 123858 145365 156669 171271 183773 213275 2855

SELECTED MODELcardinal minimum temperature = 6 °Ccardinal optimal temperature = 18 °Ccardinal optimal temperature = 30 °C

cardinal maximum temperature = 36 °CSP01 dataset – 2000/2009

SELECTED MODELcardinal minimum temperature = 6 °Ccardinal optimal temperature = 18 °Ccardinal optimal temperature = 30 °C

cardinal maximum temperature = 36 °C

SP01 dataset – 2000/2009

MODEL VALIDATION - MAE

SV01 3.77IM02 9.82SV02 9.86IM01 11.00GE02 16.91GE01 22.36

MODEL VALIDATION – MAE - LIGURIA

BBCH 52 13.67BBCH 54 12.00BBCH 55 14.29BBCH 59 14.10BBCH 65 9.00BBCH 69 10.13BBCH 71 5.67BBCH 73 10.43BBCH 75 15.07

MODEL VALIDATIONDatasets: Genova (GE01, GE02), Imperia (IM01, IM02) Savona (SV01)

Period: 2008 – 2009 - 2010

BBCH 52

8090

100110

120130140

GE01 GE02 IM01 IM02 SV01 SV02

site

DO

Y

measured simulated

BBCH 54

100110

120130140

150160

GE01 GE02 IM01 IM01 IM02 IM02 SV01 SV01 SV02

site

DO

Y

measured simulated

MODEL VALIDATIONDatasets: Genova (GE01, GE02), Imperia (IM01, IM02) Savona (SV01)

Period: 2008 – 2009 - 2010

BBCH 55

100110120130140150160

GE01 GE02 IM01 IM02 SV01 SV02 SV02

site

DO

Y

measured simulated

BBCH 58

110120

130140150

160170

GE01 GE01 GE02 GE02 IM01 IM02 SV01 SV01 SV02 SV02

site

DOY

measured simulated

MODEL VALIDATIONDatasets: Genova (GE01, GE02), Imperia (IM01, IM02) Savona (SV01)

Period: 2008 – 2009 - 2010

BBCH 65

120

130140

150

160170

180

GE01 GE02 IM01 SV01 SV02

site

DO

Y

measured simulated

BBCH 69

120

130140

150

160170

180

GE01 GE02 IM01 IM01 IM02 IM02 SV01 SV02

site

DOY

measured simulated

MODEL VALIDATIONDatasets: Genova (GE01, GE02), Imperia (IM01, IM02) Savona (SV01)

Period: 2008 – 2009 - 2010

BBCH 71

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

GE01 GE01 GE02 GE02 IM01 IM02 SV01 SV02 SV02

site

DO

Y

measured simulated

BBCH 73

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

IM01 IM01 IM01 SV01 SV01 SV02 SV02

site

DOY

measured simulated

MODEL VALIDATIONDatasets: Genova (GE01, GE02), Imperia (IM01, IM02) Savona (SV01)

Period: 2008 – 2009 - 2010

BBCH 75

160

180

200

220

240

260

GE01 GE01 GE02 GE02 IM01 IM01 IM01 IM02 IM02 IM02 SV01 SV01 SV02 SV02

site

DOY

measured simulated

SV01

100120140160180200220

54 58 69 73 75 52 54 55 58 65 71 73 75

BBCH

DOY

measured simulated

MODEL VALIDATION

2009

MAE = 3.4

2010

MAE = 4

GE02

90110130150170190210

52 54 55 58 65 69 71 75 58 71 75

BBCH

DOY

measured simulated

MODEL VALIDATAION

2008

MAE = 18.42009

MAE = 13

BBCH NHHsum

55 948

65 1502

69 1762

73 2039

75 2435

MODEL THRESHOLDS CALIBRATION FOR CALABRIA

SELECTED MODELcardinal minimum temperature = 6 °Ccardinal optimal temperature = 18 °Ccardinal optimal temperature = 30 °C

cardinal maximum temperature = 36 °C

CALIBRATION - CALABRIA

CZ02 dataset – 2000/2010

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

55 55 55 55 55 65 65 65 65 65 69 69 69 69 73 73 73 73 75 75 75 75

measured simulated

MAE = 5.75

VALIDATION - CALABRIA

BBCH 55

8090

100110120130140150

OCZ1OCZ1OCS2OCS1ORC1OCS2OCS1OCS1OCZ1OCZ1OCS1OCS2ORC1OCS1OCS1OCZ1ORC1OCZ1

site

DO

Y

measured simulated

BBCH 65

110120130140150160170

OCZ1OCS1OCS1OCS2OCS1OCS2ORC1OCS2OCZ1

OCS1OCZ1OCS2OCS1OCS2OCZ1OCS1OCZ1

site

DO

Y

measured simulated

VALIDATION - CALABRIABBCH 69

120130140150160170180

OCZ1OCS1OCS2OCS2OCS1OCZ1OCS2ORC1OCZ1

OCS2OCS1OCS2ORC1OCS2OCS2OCS1OCS2

site

DOY

measured simulated

BBCH 73

140150160170180190200

OCZ1

OCS1

OCS2

OCS1

ORC1

OCZ1

OCS1

OCS2

ORC1

OCS2

OCS1

ORC1

ORC1

OCS1

ORC1

OCS2

site

DO

Y

measured simulated

VALIDATION - CALABRIA

BBCH 75

150160170180190200210220230240

OCZ1OCS1OCZ1OCS1ORC1OCS2OCS1OCZ1OCS1OCZ1OCS2ORC1ORC1OCZ1OCS1OCZ1OCZ1OCZ1

site

DO

Y

measured simulated

MODEL VALIDATION - MAE

CS01 16.18CS02 17.24CZ01 9RC01 11.51

MODEL VALIDATION – MAE - CALABRIA

BBCH 55 14.46BBCH 65 11.02BBCH 69 9.21BBCH 73 11.25BBCH 75 21.65

CONCLUSIONS

SERIE METEO

SERIE FENOLOGICHE

DIFFERENZE VARIETALI