Impatti del TTIP sui mercati europei dell'energia e sulle industrie manifatturiere - presentazione

8/9/2019 Impatti del TTIP sui mercati europei dell'energia e sulle industrie manifatturiere - presentazione

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TTIP Impacts on European Energy

Markets and Manufacturing

IndustriesPresentation for EP/ITRE

Committee

21st January 2015

Koen RademaekersStephan Slingerland

Triple E Consulting January 2014


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This Presentation

EU US Trade Relations

and TTIP Potential impacts on the

energy sector

Potential impacts on themanufacturing sector

Conclusions and

recommendations


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EU US Trade Relations


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EU US Trade

Direction of

trade

(bln )

Goods

(2013)

Services

(2012)

Investment

(2012)

EU to US 282 163 1,655

US to EU 196 149 1,536

Trade balance

EU

+ 92 + 14 + 119

Source: Eurostat

positi!e trade "alance for the EU


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TTIP #egotiation Process

$ngoing since %&'(

Se!en rounds so far

%( topics

#egotiation areas

)arket access

Ser!ices andin!estment

Regulatory issues

Sectoral anne*es


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Potential Impacts on the

Energy Sector


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EU US Energy CommoditiesTrade

EU-27 - US trade by SITC 201!" #er ton Sour$e%

Eurostat"

Commodity EU Imports

EU

E*ports

Coa&

'&(+%,-+'

.%,

'ri(uettes) *i+nite and Peat '+%(' %.+('.Co,e and Semi $o,e '//+&00 0+,1.

Petro&eum oi& and oi&s obtained from

bituminous minera&s) oter tan

$rude re.ned"

'1+/&-+/(

'

%%+&-.+(

(&

Petro&eum oi& and oi&s obtained from

bituminous minera&s) $rude $f ban

on US $rude oi& e#orts"

.+,.( (+'1(+-/,

aste oi&s '0+'.- .Residua& #etro&eum #rodu$ts -+/-.+0/- .00+&%%*i(ui.ed #ro#ane and butane '+.,.+00& '+,'/atura& 3as) 4eter or not &i(ue.ed ./1+0/1 ((

It is $&ear 4ere te trade

is


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Tari2 and #on3Tari2 4arriers forEnergy

ue& ty#e on-tari6 measure EU tari6

0"

US

tari6

"

8i& 5US6 E*port "an 3 7icense

Re8uired

& 9 &%;

atura& +as 5US6 E*port "an 3 7icense

Re8uired

& &

Re.ned fue&s

+aso&ine)

diese&"

5EU6


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Impact on Energy Trade

Coal is already@ithout tari2s

E*port "ans to "ea2ected "y TTIPA

$ther "arriers5climate policies+ 6not directly a2ected

7#B trade to increase+"ut more interestingmarkets in sia

7imited TTIP impacts on energy trade

e*pected


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Impact on Energy Security

If e*port "ans are remo!ed If 7#B trade to Europe @ill "ecome attracti!e

If a crisis mechanism is agreed on5separately6

Then TTIP could ha!e a positi!e impacton energy security in the EU


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Impact on Rene@a"les

Through the remo!al of local contentre8uirements 57CR6 trade in rene@a"le energy

technologies is likely to increase e e*pect possi"ilities forharmonisation @ithout lo@eringen! standards 5for e* Ecodesign6


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Potential Impacts on the

)anufacturing Sector


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Trade weighted average tari rate! "#$ "2%%&$

Tari2 )easures

Tari2 "arriers are generally lo@+ @ith some e*ceptio

So'rce( )E* 2%13


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>epend on scenario

ll scenarios sho@5limited6 positi!e impactson B>P

TTIP might lead to positi!espill3o!ers in increasedtrade @ith third countries

and adoption of standards

Small changes in

emissions only

$!erall impacts


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Impacts on speciDc sectors

So'rce( )E* 2%13

)hange! in EU o't't b 2%2& "#$

EU )etals and Electrical machinery are likely todecrease outputs

TTIP " Dt ill t " l


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TTIP "eneDts @ill not "e e8ualfor all )em"er

States

So'rce( elber.ar etal 2%14

Core EU countries do not proDt more thanperifery

Changes in Real Per Capita Income of Selected Countries 5;6


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>epend on speciDc pro!isions or on additional

agreements Competiti!eness: 7o@er US la"our and energy

costs stand against skills+ energy eciency+inno!ation

Relati!ely lo@ mo!ement of @orkers across sectorsdue to TTIP

$!erall la"our market impacts e*pected to "e lo@

7a"our market impacts


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Ener+y

Security of supply+ trade and energy prices might"e less a2ected than claimed

Rene@a"les might "eneDt from TTIP !ia remo!alof 7ocal Content Re8uirements

9anufa$turin+ industry

small positi!e impact for most EUmanufacturing industries is e*pected+ @ith largeuncertainties

Inno!ation might "e stimulated

7a"our market e2ects likely to "e limited

)ain Conclusions


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9onitor

)onitor closely if "eneDts of TTIP out@eigh dra@"acks of@atering do@n on EU legislation 5eg RECG+ 6

S in relation to TTIP:is$uss


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Thank you for your attention

Triple E Consulting January 2013


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InS @as introduced in the Treaty of 7is"on andcurrently used under the pro!isions of theEnergy Charter Treaty 5ECT6 5@ith ,&; of theEU cases6

If included in TTIP+ en!ironmental policiesmight "e disputed "y international energycompanies @here they ha!e made in!estments

IS>S )echanism

Impatti del TTIP sui mercati europei dell'energia e sulle industrie manifatturiere - presentazione

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