Caprio College Prezentacija

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    Bank Regulation Is Changing:Bank Regulation Is Changing:

    But for Better or Worse?But for Better or Worse?

    Gerard CaprioGerard Caprio

    Williams CollegeWilliams College

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    If men were angels, no government would be

    necessary. If angels were to govern men, neither

    external nor internal controls would be necessary.

    In framing a government which is to beadministered by men over men, the great difficulty

    lies in this: you must first enable the government

    to control the governed; and in the next place

    oblige it to control itself.

    James Madison, Federalist Papers, Number 51

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    Institutional EnvironmentDemocratic, Political Structure/System

    Technology, Information

    Infrastructure

    Judicial ,

    Legal

    ,

    Reg

    ulatoryEn

    viron

    ment

    Market

    Structu

    re

    Med

    ia

    The Market:Depositors,creditors,rating agencies

    Politicians

    Regulators andsupervisors

    Borrowers,counterparties

    Corruption

    corruption Banks

    The Public

    corruption

    A Framework for Bank Regulation

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    2. Debate about governments role2. Debate about governments role

    Public interest viewPublic interest view

    Govt maximizes social welfareGovt maximizes social welfare

    Govt has incentives / ability toGovt has incentives / ability toameliorate market failuresameliorate market failures

    If we identify best practices,If we identify best practices,countries will change.countries will change.

    Private interest viewPrivate interest view

    Govt maximizes Govt welfare; so doGovt maximizes Govt welfare; so doregulateesregulatees

    Govt does not necessarily haveGovt does not necessarily have

    incentives / ability to fix failuresincentives / ability to fix failures

    Need more than best practices:Need more than best practices:

    Combination of incentives forCombination of incentives for

    regulators and regulatees will notregulators and regulatees will not

    maximize social welfaremaximize social welfare

    Laissez-Faire : Market failures minorno need for government

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    3 Surveys3 Surveys 11stst: 1998-99-2000: 1998-99-2000

    107 countries107 countries 175 questions175 questions

    22ndnd: 2003: 2003 152 countries152 countries 275 questions275 questions

    3rd: 20063rd: 2006 142 countries142 countries 300+ questions300+ questions

    3. Collecting the data...3. Collecting the data...

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    14%

    64%

    361%

    Ratio of Bank Assets to GDPRatio of Bank Assets to GDP

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    Not AvailableLess Than 10 Percent

    Greater Than 60 Percent

    Greater Than 10 Percent, Less Than 30 PercentGreater Than 30 Percent, Less Than 60 Percent

    Government-Owned BanksGovernment-Owned Banks

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    Government Ownership of Banks DiffersGovernment Ownership of Banks Differs

    WidelyWidely

    Share of Total Assets in Government-Owned Banks

    as of Year-End 2005

    0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

    Brazil 45%

    China 68%Germany 40%

    Russia 39%

    India 74%

    United State 0%

    Median = 5%

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    Government-Owned Banks Share ofGovernment-Owned Banks Share of

    Total Bank AssetsTotal Bank Assets

    78 Percent 68 Percent

    http://www-vrl.umich.edu/sel_prj/ibm/wall/GreatWall.gif
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    Foreign Ownership of Banks Differ WidelyForeign Ownership of Banks Differ Widely

    Share of Total Assets in Foreign-Owned Banks

    as of Year-End 2005

    0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

    Brazil 20%

    China 2%

    Germany 6.5%

    Russia 8.3%India 6.8%

    United Kindom 54%

    United States 8.5%

    Japan 6.1%

    Median = 39%

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    11 Percent 98 Percent

    Foreign-Owned Banks ShareForeign-Owned Banks Share

    of Total Bank Assetsof Total Bank Assets

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    Grouping and Aggregating Data to AssessGrouping and Aggregating Data to Assess

    What Works BestWhat Works Best

    Structure, scope,Structure, scope,independence ofindependence ofregulation andregulation and

    supervisionsupervision

    Bank activitiesBank activities Entry requirementsEntry requirements CapitalCapital

    requirementsrequirements Deposit InsuranceDeposit Insurance

    Supervisory powersSupervisory powers

    Private monitoringPrivate monitoring

    ExternalExternalgovernancegovernance

    OwnershipOwnership

    characteristicscharacteristicsAll the data is online in the hopes oflowering the entry barriers to

    conducting better research.

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    How Many Bank Supervisory AuthoritiesHow Many Bank Supervisory Authorities

    Do Countries Have?Do Countries Have?

    6

    9

    44

    82

    92

    51

    0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

    Is there a single financial

    supervisory agency for all

    of the main financial

    institutions (insurancecompanies, contractual

    savings institutions,

    savings banks)?

    Is there a single financial

    supervisory agency for all

    of the activities in which

    commercial banks areallowed to do business?

    N ot Availab le Yes N o

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    Is the Central BankIs the Central Bank

    a Supervisory Authority?a Supervisory Authority?

    Yes

    54%

    No

    42%

    Not

    Available

    4%

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    Who Funds SupervisionWho Funds Supervision

    in Countries?in Countries?

    Banks

    23%

    Government

    31%

    Not

    Available

    36%

    Both10%

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    What Is a Bank?What Is a Bank?

    Regulatory Restrictions on ActivitiesRegulatory Restrictions on Activities

    36

    13 11

    31

    40

    4220

    34

    33

    18

    21

    26

    46

    32

    31

    41

    7

    974

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    Securities InsuranceReal estate Bankownership

    of

    nonfinancial firms

    Nonfinancial firm

    ownership

    of banks

    PercentUnrestricted Permitted Restricted Prohibited

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    CapitalCapital

    Summary measure of initial and generalSummary measure of initial and general

    capital stringencycapital stringency Basel C/ABasel C/A

    Capital varies with market riskCapital varies with market risk

    loan securities, FX losses deducted from capitalloan securities, FX losses deducted from capital

    initial capital only with cash and government securitiesinitial capital only with cash and government securities

    borrowed funds for initial capitalborrowed funds for initial capital

    verify capital sourcesverify capital sources

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    Are Countries Planning on Adopting BaselAre Countries Planning on Adopting Basel

    II?II?

    Yes

    76%

    No13%

    Not

    Available

    11%

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    Which Approach DoWhich Approach Do

    Countries Plan to Adopt?Countries Plan to Adopt?

    Yes

    82%

    No

    2%

    Not

    Available

    16%

    Yes45%

    No38%

    NotAvailable

    17%

    Standardized Approach

    Foundation IRB Approach

    Yes

    40%

    No43%

    NotAvailable

    17%

    Advanced IRB Approach

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    Deposit Insurance GenerosityDeposit Insurance Generosity

    ExplicitExplicit

    Level of coverageLevel of coverage

    CoinsuranceCoinsurance Coverage (e.g., FX, interbank deposits)Coverage (e.g., FX, interbank deposits)

    Funding (source; flat or risk based)Funding (source; flat or risk based)

    ManagementManagement MembershipMembership

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    Do Countries Have ExplicitDo Countries Have Explicit

    Deposit Insurance Schemes?Deposit Insurance Schemes?

    Yes

    49%No

    51%Yes54%

    No44%

    Not Available

    2%

    Survey III143 CountriesSurvey II

    152 Countries

    Countries recently adopting depositinsurance: Armenia, Hong Kong,

    Malaysia, Moldova, Russia, Singapore,Tajikistan, Uruguay, and Zimbabwe

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    Percent of the Commercial Banking SystemsPercent of the Commercial Banking Systems

    Assets Funded by DepositsAssets Funded by Deposits

    0 20 40 60 80

    ColombiaMauritius

    PhilippinesGreece

    United StatesBulgariaMexicoCanadaIrelandCroatia

    KoreaJamaicaBurundi

    GhanaCzech Republic

    IndonesiaPortugalJordan

    RomaniaEl Salvador

    ArgentinaCyprus

    ChileSlovakiaArmenia

    Kyrgyz RepublicTrinidad and Tobago

    ItalyTajikistan

    LatviaUnited Kingdom

    SloveniaHungary

    PolandGermanyMozambique

    ZimbabweMalta

    EstoniaSpain

    NorwayBelarus

    BrazilNetherlands

    AustraliaSingapore

    DenmarkRussia

    BelgiumLuxembourg

    LesothoFinland

    SwedenIceland

    FranceBotswana

    Algeria

    SurinameGuyana

    SeychellesMacau, China

    FijiDominica

    Dominican RepublicBhutan

    BangladeshTanzania

    Cook IslandsMorocco

    Papua New GuineaSouth Africa

    ChinaPakistan

    KenyaLebanon

    LithuaniaIndia

    BahrainNew Zealand

    BelizeLiechtenstein

    NicaraguaThailandMoldova

    GuatemalaMalawiJersey

    VenezuelaUruguayMaldives

    Bosnia andSaudi Arabia

    BoliviaMalaysia

    Costa RicaSri Lanka

    OmanJapan

    PeruSwitzerland

    HondurasUganda

    MacedoniaPanama

    Angola

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    Percent of the Commercial Banking SystemsPercent of the Commercial Banking Systems

    Assets Funded with Insured DepositsAssets Funded with Insured Deposits

    ColombiaCzech Republic

    IndonesiaBulgaria

    BangladeshLithuania

    GuatemalaLatvia

    PortugalPoland

    HungaryMexico

    DenmarkNetherlandsMacedoniaArgentinaZimbabwe

    United StatesCyprus

    KoreaSlovakiaRomania

    NicaraguaPeru

    SloveniaJamaicaNorwayCroatia

    SpainEl Salvador

    MalaysiaLuxembourg

    IcelandFinland

    LiechtensteinTanzania

    FranceArmeniaMoldovaLebanon

    SwedenBrazil

    62 countries with no assets62 countries with no assets

    funded with insured depositsfunded with insured deposits

    Angola, Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda,Angola, Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda,

    Australia, Belize, Benin, Bhutan, Bolivia,Australia, Belize, Benin, Bhutan, Bolivia,

    Botswana, British Virgin Islands, BurkinaBotswana, British Virgin Islands, Burkina

    Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cayman Islands,Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cayman Islands,Central African Republic, Chad, China,Central African Republic, Chad, China,

    Congo, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, CoteCongo, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Cote

    d'Ivorie, Dominica, Dominican Republic,d'Ivorie, Dominica, Dominican Republic,

    Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Fiji, Gabon,Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Fiji, Gabon,

    Ghana, Grenada, Guernsey, GuineaGhana, Grenada, Guernsey, Guinea

    Bissau, Guyana, Jersey, Kosovo, Kuwait,Bissau, Guyana, Jersey, Kosovo, Kuwait,

    Kyrgyz Republic, Lesotho, Macau, China,Kyrgyz Republic, Lesotho, Macau, China,Malawi, Maldives, Mali, Mauritius,Malawi, Maldives, Mali, Mauritius,

    Montserrat, Mozambique, New Zealand,Montserrat, Mozambique, New Zealand,

    Niger, Pakistan, Panama, Papua NewNiger, Pakistan, Panama, Papua New

    Guinea, Senegal, Seychelles, South Africa,Guinea, Senegal, Seychelles, South Africa,

    Sri Lanka, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St.Sri Lanka, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St.

    Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname,Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname,

    Syria, Thailand, Togo, VanuatuSyria, Thailand, Togo, Vanuatu

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    Official SupervisionOfficial Supervision

    Supervisory powerSupervisory power Power to take legal action against auditors, director, officersPower to take legal action against auditors, director, officers Force bank to provision, change organizational structureForce bank to provision, change organizational structure Power to suspend dividends, bonuses, management feesPower to suspend dividends, bonuses, management fees Legal power to declare insolvencyLegal power to declare insolvency

    Power to supercede shareholder rights, remove/replacePower to supercede shareholder rights, remove/replacemanagers, directorsmanagers, directors

    Forbearance discretionForbearance discretion

    Loan classification and provisioning stringencyLoan classification and provisioning stringency

    Diversification: domestically and abroadDiversification: domestically and abroad

    Supervisory resourcesSupervisory resources

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    What Powers Do Supervisors Possess?What Powers Do Supervisors Possess?

    8

    12

    9

    28

    66

    11 7

    10 6

    64

    16

    0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

    Can individual supervisory staff be held personally

    liable for dam age s to a bank caused by their actions

    or omissions committed in the good faith exercise of

    their duties?

    Can the supervisory agency be held l iable for

    damages to a bank caused by its actions?

    Are ba nk directors lega lly liable if informa tion

    disclosed is erroneous or misleading?

    Not Available Yes No

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    Are Courts Supervisory Authorities Too?Are Courts Supervisory Authorities Too?

    9

    9

    9

    6

    69

    115

    127

    64

    18

    0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

    Is court approval required for supervisory actions, such

    as superceding shareholder rights, removing and

    replacing management, removing and replacing director,

    or license revocation?

    Is court order re quired to appoint a receiver/liquidator in

    the e vent of liquidation?

    Can the bank shareholders appeal to the court against a

    decision of the bank supervisor?

    N ot Available Yes N o

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    3. Private monitoring3. Private monitoring

    Certified audit requiredCertified audit required

    Percent of 10 biggest banks rated byPercent of 10 biggest banks rated byinternational rating agenciesinternational rating agencies

    Accounting disclosure and liabilityAccounting disclosure and liability accrued but unpaid interestaccrued but unpaid interest consolidated statementsconsolidated statements

    liability of directorsliability of directors No deposit insuranceNo deposit insurance

    Private monitoring

    Laissez-Faire

    Private monitoring

    involves supervision

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    Do Countries Require a SimpleDo Countries Require a Simple

    Leverage Ratio?Leverage Ratio?

    Yes

    17%

    No

    70%

    Not

    Availabl

    13%

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    4. What Works Best?4. What Works Best?

    What worksWhat works Bank developmentBank development

    EfficiencyEfficiency IntegrityIntegrity StabilityStability Bank governance?Bank governance?

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    4. Bank development4. Bank development

    s = Supervisory/regulatory indicatorss = Supervisory/regulatory indicators

    X = Exogenous determinants of Bank Development, identifiedX = Exogenous determinants of Bank Development, identifiedby existing research (legal origin, ethnic diversity, settlerby existing research (legal origin, ethnic diversity, settlermortality, etc.)mortality, etc.)

    Z = Instrumental variables for the bank supervision andZ = Instrumental variables for the bank supervision andregulation variables (religious orientation, endowments,regulation variables (religious orientation, endowments,latitude)latitude)

    u andu and are error termsare error terms ,, ,, , and, and are the estimated parametersare the estimated parameters

    Bank Development =Bank Development = ++ s +s + X + uX + u

    s =s = Z +Z +

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    Private monitoring boosts bank developmentPrivate monitoring boosts bank development

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    Official supervisory power lowers bankOfficial supervisory power lowers bank

    developmentdevelopment

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    Changes in Restrictions on BanksChanges in Restrictions on BanksChanges - Overall Restrictions - Survey III - I

    Belarus

    MauritiusBelgiumBhutan

    PolandRomania

    BrazilGhana

    GreeceIcelandIreland

    Morocco

    Guatemala

    JordanKuwaitLatviaLebanonMaltaNetherlands

    BahrainBoliviaBotswanaCanadaCroatiaDenmarkIndia

    Saudi ArabiaSloveniaSweden

    AustraliaAustriaFinlandGermanyHondurasHungary

    Italy

    Lithuania

    South AfricaSpain

    ChileCyprusFrance

    PortugalSwitzerland

    MoldovaPeru

    Thailand

    GuyanaTajikistan

    Japan

    United Kingdom

    PhilippinesUnited States

    Malaysia

    Russia

    Korea

    Argentina

    Singapore

    Panama

    CzechRepublic

    Oman

    Lesotho

    Indonesia

    Trinidad and Tobago

    BurundiEstonia

    Mexico

    Luxembourg

    NewZealand

    Kenya

    -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

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    Impact of Changes in RestrictionsImpact of Changes in RestrictionsDifference in BankDevelopment - Overall Restrictions - Survey III - I

    GuyanaTajikistan

    CzechRepublicKenya

    MoldovaPeru

    ThailandChile

    CyprusFrance

    LuxembourgPanama

    Portugal

    Trinidad and TobagoAustralia

    AustriaFinland

    GermanyHondurasHungary

    Italy

    Lithuania

    South Africa

    BahrainBolivia

    BotswanaCanadaCroatia

    DenmarkIndia

    Lesotho

    SloveniaSweden

    BurundiEstonia

    Guatemala

    JordanKuwaitLatviaLebanonMaltaNetherlands

    BrazilGhanaGreece

    OmanPolandRomania

    Belarus

    Indonesia

    Japan

    PhilippinesUnited States

    United Kingdom

    Mexico

    Korea

    Singapore

    NewZealand

    Saudi Arabia

    Morocco

    Bhutan

    Mauritius

    Belgium

    IrelandIceland

    Russia

    Malaysia

    Spain

    Switzerland

    Argentina

    -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3

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    Changes in Entry RequirementsChanges in Entry Requirements

    Changes - Entry Requirements - Survey III - I

    Cyprus Peru

    SwedenAustralia

    GreeceKenya

    RomaniaSpain

    TajikistanVenezuela

    AustriaBahrainBelarusBelgiumBoliviaBotswanaBrazilCanadaCroatiaCzechRepublicDenmarkEstonia

    GhanaGuatemalaHondurasIndiaIrelandItalyJordanLebanonLesothoLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaMauritius

    MoldovaMoroccoOmanPanamaPortugal

    Saudi ArabiaSlovenia

    South AfricaSwitzerlandThailand

    BhutanChileEl SalvadorFranceGuyanaHungaryIceland

    PolandSingapore

    BurundiGermanyLatviaTrinidad and Tobago

    KuwaitFinland

    Philippines

    Malaysia

    KoreaNetherlands

    Russia

    United Kingdom

    Indonesia

    NewZealand

    Sri Lanka

    Japan

    Mexico

    Argentina

    United States

    -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6

    I t f E t ChI t f E t Ch

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    Impact of Entry ChangesImpact of Entry Changes

    Difference in BankDevelopment - Entry Restrictions - Survey III - I

    CyprusPeru

    SwedenAustralia

    GreeceKenya

    NetherlandsRomania

    TajikistanVenezuela

    AustriaBahrainBelarusBelgiumBoliviaBotswanaBrazilCanadaCroatiaCzechRepublicDenmark

    EstoniaGhanaGuatemalaHondurasIndiaIrelandItaly

    JordanLebanonLesothoLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaMauritius

    MoldovaMoroccoOmanPanamaPortugalSaudi Arabia

    SloveniaSouth AfricaSwitzerland

    BhutanChileEl SalvadorFranceGuyanaHungaryIceland

    PolandSingapore

    BurundiGermanyLatvia

    Trinidad and TobagoKuwait

    Finland

    Korea

    Philippines

    United Kingdom

    Malaysia

    United States

    Sri Lanka

    NewZealand

    Japan

    Thailand

    Russia

    Mexico

    Spain

    Indonesia

    Argentina

    -0.15 -0.1 -0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0.15

    I t f I d S i iI t f I d S i i

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    Impact of Improved SupervisionImpact of Improved Supervision

    Difference in BankDevelopment - Official Supervisory Power - Survey III - I

    Singapore

    South AfricaMauritius

    LithuaniaTrinidad and Tobago

    LatviaGuatemala

    IrelandMoldova

    GhanaIcelandMalta

    BelarusGuyana

    SpainAustralia

    Bolivia

    BurundiDenmarkEstonia

    FranceIndia

    ThailandItaly

    CanadaChile

    Finland

    MoroccoPortugal

    Switzerland

    BelgiumLesotho

    BrazilGreeceHondurasHungary

    KenyaLebanonPeru

    VenezuelaEl SalvadorGermanyOmanPanamaSloveniaSaudi Arabia

    CroatiaCyprusPoland

    BahrainNewZealand

    AustriaLuxembourgCzechRepublic

    BotswanaBhutan

    United Kingdom

    United States

    Japan

    ArgentinaRussia

    Malaysia

    Mexico

    Korea

    -0.15 -0.1 -0.05 0 0.05 0.1

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    Impact of Private MonitoringImpact of Private Monitoring

    Difference in BankDevelopment - Private Monitoring - Survey III - I

    BurundiFinland

    OmanAustralia

    Jordan

    MaltaPeru

    Portugal

    Switzerland

    BotswanaBrazilChileCroatiaEstoniaGuyanaHonduras

    LuxembourgMoldovaPanamaSingapore

    Trinidad and Tobago

    BahrainBelgiumBoliviaIcelandIreland

    MauritiusNewZealand

    Slovenia

    South AfricaSpainSweden

    CyprusCzechRepublicEl SalvadorFranceGermanyGreeceGuatemalaHungaryItalyLatviaMoroccoNetherlands

    ThailandBelarusMexico

    Indonesia

    Russia

    LithuaniaJapan

    ArgentinaUnited States

    United Kingdom

    Korea

    Malaysia

    -0.2 -0.15 -0.1 -0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3

    I t f Di ifi tiI t f Di ifi ti

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    Impact of DiversificationImpact of Diversification

    Difference in Probability (Banking Crises) - Diversification Index - Survey III - I

    GuyanaHonduras

    BurundiLesotho

    GuatemalaGhana

    Lithuania

    DenmarkPanama

    India

    Tajikistan

    AustraliaAustriaBoliviaBotswanaBrazilCanadaChileCroatiaCyprusEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyIcelandItalyJapanLuxembourgMalaysiaMauritiusMoroccoNetherlandsNewZealandPeru

    PolandPortugalRomania

    SloveniaSwedenSwitzerlandThailandTrinidad and Tobago

    Saudi ArabiaMoldovaMaltaBahrainJordan

    SpainHungaryCzechRepublicRwandaSouth AfricaOman

    VenezuelaGreece

    LebanonBelarus

    Korea

    Mexico

    Indonesia

    Argentina

    Philippines

    Russia

    United KingdomUnited States

    -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4

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    6. Qualified Conclusions6. Qualified Conclusions Until angels govern, the data suggest Until angels govern, the data suggest

    Avoid relying on official oversight, restrictions, & ownershipAvoid relying on official oversight, restrictions, & ownership Emphasize private monitoring / incentives (deposit insurance)Emphasize private monitoring / incentives (deposit insurance) Stress Basel IIs 3Stress Basel IIs 3rdrd pillar (not capital and official oversight)pillar (not capital and official oversight)

    Supervisors have crucial roleSupervisors have crucial role

    Support market discipline, not supplant itSupport market discipline, not supplant it Foster / force information disclosureFoster / force information disclosure

    Do not fax best practices to countries!Do not fax best practices to countries!

    Empiricists / Researchers deserveEmpiricists / Researchers deserve aa seat atseat at

    the regulatory reform tablethe regulatory reform table

    Wh d ?Wh t t d ?

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    What to do?What to do? Data say that capital and supervision do notData say that capital and supervision do not

    workwork Implications:Implications:

    Emerging markets need to emphasize infrastructureEmerging markets need to emphasize infrastructurefirst, with better information, incentives to use itfirst, with better information, incentives to use it

    Look to why supervision has not been workingLook to why supervision has not been working(politics).(politics).

    Focus on private sector incentives and diversifyFocus on private sector incentives and diversify State guarantees (deposit insurance) and/or stateState guarantees (deposit insurance) and/or state

    ownership reduces monitoringownership reduces monitoring Limits on activities are badLimits on activities are bad Diversification (activities, portfolios) is essentialDiversification (activities, portfolios) is essential Foreign entry matters, esp. for small countriesForeign entry matters, esp. for small countries

    Go slow on Basel II (wait for version II.x,Go slow on Basel II (wait for version II.x,or later)or later) Emphasize pillar 3Emphasize pillar 3Till Angels GovernTill Angels Govern..

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    Our LimitationsOur Limitations

    MeasurementMeasurement Errors, omissions,Errors, omissions, time-seriestime-series in measuring supervision / regulation?in measuring supervision / regulation? Impact of supervision on the ground (only have proxies)Impact of supervision on the ground (only have proxies) Better aggregate indexes of approaches to supervision / regulation?Better aggregate indexes of approaches to supervision / regulation? Solution: get better dataSolution: get better data

    Gauging Government RoleGauging Government Role Policies may work differently in different political / institutional regimesPolicies may work differently in different political / institutional regimes Do we capture these nuances?Do we capture these nuances? Solution: add case studiesSolution: add case studies

    Regulatory choicesRegulatory choices Does X-C evidence add much?Does X-C evidence add much? Solution: add time series dataSolution: add time series data

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    Our LimitationsOur Limitations

    MeasurementMeasurement Errors, omissions,Errors, omissions, time-seriestime-series in measuring supervision / regulation?in measuring supervision / regulation? Impact of supervision on the ground (only have proxies)Impact of supervision on the ground (only have proxies) Better aggregate indexes of approaches to supervision / regulation?Better aggregate indexes of approaches to supervision / regulation? Solution: get better dataSolution: get better data

    Gauging Government RoleGauging Government Role Policies may work differently in different political / institutional regimesPolicies may work differently in different political / institutional regimes Do we capture these nuances?Do we capture these nuances? Solution: add case studiesSolution: add case studies

    Regulatory choicesRegulatory choices Does X-C evidence add much?Does X-C evidence add much?

    Solution: add time series dataSolution: add time series data

    P t f th C i l B ki S t P t f th C i l B ki S t

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    Percent of the Commercial Banking SystemsPercent of the Commercial Banking Systems

    Assets Denominated in Foreign CurrencyAssets Denominated in Foreign Currency

    0 5 10 15 20 25 30

    Trinidad and TobagoCroatia

    LesothoRussia

    UgandaIcelandPolandGhanaFrance

    Czech RepublicGuatemalaIndonesia

    NorwayNetherlands

    MexicoArgentina

    BurundiSaudi Arabia

    ChilePakistan

    KenyaSlovakia

    GuyanaBhutan

    BotswanaZimbabwe

    MozambiqueVenezuela

    MalawiThailand

    Papua New GuineaBrazil

    GreeceDominica

    Dominican RepublicKorea

    South AfricaBelize

    FijiSeychelles

    ItalyMoroccoMalaysia

    SpainColombiaPortugal

    AustraliaNew Zealand

    AlgeriaBangladeshEl Salvador

    BahrainMalta

    Macau, China

    KazakhstanBolivia

    SingaporeUruguay

    LatviaLebanon

    KyrgyzMaldives

    PeruSwitzerland

    LithuaniaNicaraguaBosnia and

    MauritiusCyprus

    MacedoniaCook Islands

    United KingdomCosta Rica

    BulgariaArmenia

    LiechtensteinTajikistanSuriname

    AngolaRomania

    HungarySloveniaDenmarkJamaicaFinlandBelarus

    MoldovaCanada

    HondurasTanzania

    OmanIsle of Man

    JordanBelgium

    P t f th C i l B ki S t P t f th C i l B ki S t

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    Percent of the Commercial Banking SystemsPercent of the Commercial Banking Systems

    Liabilities Denominated in Foreign CurrencyLiabilities Denominated in Foreign Currency

    0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

    MoldovaHungary

    RussiaIsle of Man

    JordanUganda

    BelgiumNetherlands

    SlovakiaFranceGhanaOman

    DominicaDominican

    New ZealandSaudi Arabia

    GuatemalaIndonesia

    ChileCzech Republic

    PolandBelize

    MexicoArgentina

    KenyaPakistanBurundiGreeceMalawi

    BotswanaZimbabwe

    BrazilPapua New Guinea

    ItalyKorea

    MalaysiaGuyana

    SpainFiji

    ColombiaThailand

    KazakhstanSouth Africa

    AustraliaMorocco

    SeychellesLesotho

    VenezuelaBhutan

    El Salvador

    BoliviaBahrainUruguay

    KyrgyzMacau, China

    SingaporeNicaragua

    LatviaJersey

    LebanonArmenia

    PeruTajikistan

    SwitzerlandMauritius

    LiechtensteinCyprus

    Bosnia andMaldives

    Cook IslandsCroatia

    BulgariaUnited Kingdom

    FinlandAngola

    Costa RicaSurinameLithuania

    MacedoniaMalta

    MozambiqueDenmarkRomaniaSloveniaJamaica

    HondurasIcelandNorwayCanadaBelarus

    TanzaniaTrinidad and

    P t f th C i l B ki S t P t f th C i l B ki S t

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    Percent of the Commercial Banking SystemsPercent of the Commercial Banking Systems

    Assets in Government SecuritiesAssets in Government Securities

    OmanBelarus

    Macau, ChinaMauritius

    BangladeshMalta

    FijiTrinidad and Tobago

    BulgariaSurinameLithuaniaHungary

    KazakhstanThailand

    DenmarkBhutan

    ChileCanadaCroatiaCyprus

    MoldovaSouth Africa

    Kyrgyz RepublicBolivia

    SingaporeRussia

    ItalySpain

    UruguayBelizeLatvia

    MalaysiaIreland

    SwedenNew Zealand

    FrancePanama

    RomaniaGermany

    NorwayIsle of Man

    Cook IslandsCayman Islands

    FinlandSwitzerland

    IcelandBurundi

    United KingdomTajikistanJersey

    SyriaKosovo

    Bosnia and Herzegovina

    JamaicaIndia

    Papua NewMalawi

    VenezuelaGuyana

    ZimbabweIndonesia

    UgandaKenya

    TanzaniaGhana

    LebanonColombia

    AngolaPoland

    LuxembourgSlovenia

    NicaraguaBrazil

    Saudi ArabiaCosta Rica

    SlovakiaLesothoMoroccoPakistanJordan

    PhilippinesMexico

    HondurasBelgiumArmenia

    CzechGreece

    El SalvadorUnited States

    JapanPeru

    DominicanDominica

    MacedoniaNetherlands