seminar politici fiscale

7/30/2019 seminar politici fiscale

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POLITICI BUGETARE VULNERABILE-

POLITICI BUGETARE SUSTENABILE:

ASEMNRI, DEOSEBIRI,

INTERDEPENDENE

Andreea Stoian, Lect.univ.dr.

Catedra de FinaneGrupul Uniunea Economic i Monetar

Tutor:

Prof.univ.dr. Nicolae Dardac

Aceast prezentare are la baz lucrarea intitulat Vulnerabilitatea vs.sustenabilitatea politicilor bugetare: aspecte teoretice (autor,Stoian Andreea) susinut n

cadrul celei de a XIa Conferine Internaionale Stabilitatea financiar i monetar n rile emergente,


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POLITICI BUGETARE VULNERABILE-POLITICI

BUGETARE SUSTENABILE: ASEMNRI, DEOSEBIRI,

INTERDEPENDENE

Menionare

Aceast lucrare a fost cofinanat din Fondul Social

European, prin Programul Operaional Sectorial

Dezvoltarea Resurselor Umane 2007-2013, proiect

numrul POSDRU/89/1.5/S/59184 Performan i

excelen n cercetarea postdoctoral n domeniultiineloreconomice din Romnia.


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POLITICI BUGETARE VULNERABILE-POLITICI

BUGETARE SUSTENABILE: ASEMNRI, DEOSEBIRI,

INTERDEPENDENE

Criza financiar

Politica fiscal este vulnerabil

Politica fiscal poate deveni nesustenabil pe

termen lung


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CONCEPTUL DE SUSTENABILITATE A

POLITICII BUGETARE Sustenabilitatea politicii bugetareo bun gestionare a resurselor financiare

publice

Blanchard (1990), i Blanchard, Chouraqui, Hageman, i Sartor (1990) acele politici care nu conduc la creterea exploziv a gradului de ndatorare a statului,

sau n urma crora nu se adopt msuri de cretere a impozitrii, de reducere drastica cheltuielilor publice, de monetizare a deficitului bugetar sau de repudiere a datorieipublice sau cnd datoria public converge spre nivelul iniial

Zee (1987), Horne (1991), Buiter (1995), Chalk i Hemming (2000), de Castro Fernandezi Hernandez de Cos (2000)

solvabilitate

Artis, 2000; Croce i Juan-Ramon, 2003 solvabilitatea va fi realizat n condiiile neschimbrii politicii fiscale

Hamilton i Flavin (1986), Chouraqui, Hagemann i Sartor (1990), Blanchard

(1990), Gramlich (1990), Horne (1991), Buiter (1995) politica bugetar este sustenabil n condiiile n care ponderea datoriei publice n

produsul intern brut nu crete mai repede dect ecartul dintre rata real a dobnzii irata real a creterii economice


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CONCEPTUL DE VULNERABILITATE APOLITICII BUGETARE

Vulnerabilitatea politicii bugetare

Furman i Stiglitz (1999) incapacitii acesteia de absorbi ocurile (de exemplu, atacuri speculative asupra

monedei naionale) i de a le transforma n riscuri sistemice

Allen et al (2002), Rial i Vicente (2004) economia este vulnerabil atunci cnd exist un risc de nerespectare a

constrngerilor de lichiditate i/sau solvabilitate bugetare, din perspectiva

modelului de constrngere bugetar intertemporal

Brixi et al (2000)

risc fiscal: orice modificare neprevzut sau care depete un anumit nivelal acestor obligaii induce un anumit grad de risc n ceea ce priveteposibilitatea i modalitatea aleas pentru finanare a acestora i poate aveaca i consecine creterea deficitelorbugetare i contractarea de datorie public

Hemming i Petrie (2000), i Hemming et al (2003) (i) evitarea deficitelor bugetare excesive i acumularea unui stoc foarte ridicat aldatoriei publice care ar putea amenina stabilitatea macroeconomic pe termen scurt i

sustenabilitatea fiscal pe termen lung; (ii) asigurarea de ctre guvern a faptului cpolitica bugetar contribuie activ la gestionarea cererii agregate, avnd un anumit gradde flexibilitate ce permite o reacie imediat i corespunztoare la posibile dezechilibreinterne i externe manifestate la nivel macroeconomic; (iii) meninerea unor rate deimpozitare stabile i acceptabile care s permit colectarea unui nivel suficient alveniturilor fiscale la bugetul public.


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POLITIC BUGETAR VULNERABIL-POLITIC BUGETAR SUSTENABIL:

ASEMNRI

Capacitatea guvernului de a genera

resurse financiare pentru acoperirea

obligaiilor generate de satisfacereanevoilor colective


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DEOSEBIRI Demarcaia dintre cele dou concepte este foarte fin

Deosebirea dintre cele dou concepte este reprezentatde orizontul de timp

Sustenabilitatea politicii bugetare concept de tipforward-looking

Vulnerabilitatea politicii bugetare concept de tipbackward-looking


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INTERDEPENDENE

O politic bugetar vulnerabil promovat

n trecut poate conduce la o politic

bugetar nesustenabil n viitor


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EVIDENE EMPIRICE PENTRU STATELE UE

Soldul bugetar

26%

37%

37%>=0

[-3,0)

>-3

BE

DE

IE

GR

ES

FR IT

CY

NL

LU

MT

AT

PT

SI

SK

FI

BG

CZ

DK

EE

LV

LT

HU

PL

RO

SE

UK

-7.0

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0


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Datoria public

LU

NL

MT

CY

IT

FR

ES

GR

IE

DE

BE

PTAT

SI

SKFI

BG

CZ

DK

EE

LV

LT

RO

PL

SEUK

HU

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

19%

11%

40%

30%


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Soldul primar

BE

DEGR

IE

ES

FR

IT

CY

LUNL

AT

SIPT

SK

FI

BG

CZ

DK

EE

LV

LTHUROPL

UK

SE

MT

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

63%

37%

>=0


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Gap >0=0


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Indicator BE DE IE EL ES FR IT CY LU MT NL

d -1.2 -2.3 1.2 -5.1 -1.3 -3.0 -3.4 -2.9 2.5 -6.0 -1.0

b 106.4 61.8 43.2 99.5 53.9 60.4 110.5 61.4 6.8 59.3 57.6

p 5.0 0.7 3.5 1.7 1.8 0.0 3.4 0.2 2.8 -2.7 2.6

gap 1.5 2.8 -6.7 -1.4 -1.8 1.3 1.6 -1.6 -3.1 0.6 0.5


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Indicator AT PT SI SK FI BG CZ DK EE LV LT HU PL RO SE UK

d -2.2 -3.7 -2.6 -5.6 1.9 0.6 -4.8 1.3 0.7 -1.2 -2.7 -6.5 -4.2 -2.8 0.2 -1.9

b 65.3 57.4 25.1 37.7 45.6 55.7 22.5 50.5 5.6 12.4 18.7 62.8 42.8 19.4 57.6 43.6

p 1.1 -0.4 -0.6 -3.0 4.6 5.9 -3.7 4.8 0.9 -0.4 -1.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.3 3.5 0.7

gap 1.3 0.1 -1.9 -2.9 -0.2 -101.8 -3.4 1.9 -12.3 -13.1 -15.2 -6.6 -5.6 -42.6 0.4 0.5


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Referine bibliografice: Afonso, A. (2000), Fiscal Policy Sustainability: Some Unpleasant European Evidence, ISEG Working Paper, 12/2000/DE/CISEP, August Afonso, A.; Rault, C. (2008), 3-Step Analysis of Public Finance Sustainability. The Case of the European Union, European Central Bank Working Paper Series

No.908/June

Afonso, A.; Agnello, L.; Furceri, D.; Sousa, R. (2009), Assessing Long Term Fiscal Developments: A New Approach, European Central Bank, Working PaperSeries No.1032/March 2009

Alesina, A. (2000), The Political Economy of the Budget Surplus in the United States,The J ournal of Economic Perspectives, 14 (3): 3-19 Allen, M. et al (2002), A Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crisis, IMF Working Paper WP/02/210 Artis, M. (2000), Comment, published in Fiscal Sustainability essays presented at the Bank of Italy workshop held in Perugia, 20-22 January, pp. 245-250 Balassone, F. et al (2009), Fiscal Sustainability and Policy Implications for the Euro Area, European Central Bank Working Paper Series, No. 994/January Balassone, F., Franco, D. (2000), Assessing Fiscal Sustainability: A Review of Methods with a View to EMU, published in Fiscal Sustainability essays

presented at the Bank of Italy workshop held in Perugia, 20-22 January, pp. 21-60

Blanchard, O. (1990), Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No.79 Blanchard, O., Chouraqui, J.C., Hagemann, P.R., Sartor, N. (1990), The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy: New Ansewars to Old Questions, OECD Economic

Studies No.15, Autumn 1990 Brixi, H. P. et al (200), Managing Fiscal Risk in Bulgaria, Policy Research Working Paper 2282, J anuary 2000, The World Bank Buiter, W.H. (1995), Measuring Fiscal Sustainability, www.nber.org/~wbuiter-sustain.pdf Chalk, N., Hemming, R. (2000), Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice, IMF Working Paper WP/00/81 Corsetti, G.; Roubini, N. (1996), European versus American Perspectives on Balanced Budget-Rules,The American Economic Review, 86, (2): 408-413 Croce E, Juan-Ramon V H (2003): Assessing Fiscal Sustainability: A Cross-Country Comparison, IMF Working Paper WP/03/145, July de Castro Fernandez, F., Hernandez de Cos, P. (2000), On the Sustainability of the Spanish Public Budget Performance, published in Fiscal Sustainability

essays presented at the Bank of Italy workshop held in Perugia, 20-22 January, pp. 135-173

Fatas, A.; Mihov, I. (2009), The Euro and Fiscal Policy, NBER Working Paper No.14722, February 2009 Furman, J.; Stiglitz, J. (1999), Economic Crisis: Evidence and Insights from East Asia, aprut n Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, editat de Brainard,

William i Perry Goerge, The Brookings Institution, 1999 Gramlich, E.M. (1990), Fiscal Indicators, OECD Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper No.80, April 1990 Hamilton, J.D.; Flavin, M.A. (1986), On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical Testing,The American Economic Review,

Vol.76, No.4 (Sep., 1986), pp.808-819

Hemming, R. et al (2003), Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crisis in Emerging Market Economies, Ocasional Paper 218, IMF, 2003 Hemming, R.; Petrie, M. (2000), A Framework for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability, IMF Working Paper WP/00/52, March Horne, J. (1991), Indicators of Fiscal Sustinability, IMF Working Paper, WP/91/5 Kotlikoff L.; Hagist, C. (2005), Whos Going Broke? Comparing Growth in Healthcare Costs in Ten OECD Countries, NBER Working Paper Series Krejdl, A. (2006), Fiscal Sustainability. Definition, Indicators and Assessment of Czech Public Finance Sustainability, Czech National Bank, Working Paper

Series 3, 3/2006

Rial, I.; Vicente, L. (2004), Fiscal Sustainability and Vulnerability in a Small Open Economy: The Uruguayan Experience, aprut n Public Debt editat de

Banca DItalia, Research Department Public Finance Workshop, 2004 Zee, H.H. (1987), On the Sustainability and Opimality of Government Debt, IMF Working Paper WP/87/83, December 1987
http://www.nber.org/~wbuiter-sustain.pdfhttp://www.nber.org/~wbuiter-sustain.pdfhttp://www.nber.org/~wbuiter-sustain.pdfhttp://www.nber.org/~wbuiter-sustain.pdf

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