MINISTERO DELLA DIFESA DIREZIONE GENERALE … · dgaa – direzione generale degli armamenti...

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MINISTERO DELLA DIFESA

DGAA – DIREZIONE GENERALE DEGLI ARMAMENTI AERONAUTICI Air Armaments General Directorate

T.Col. GArn Rubino Ing. Carlo [email protected]

Warsaw, July 6th, 2011

mailto:[email protected]

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SCOPE

PRESENTATION OUTLINE

Describing the regulatory framework that

allows Italian MoD to operate Military UAVs

over national territory and providing the

Forum with the Italian lesson learned.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

NATIONAL REGULATION

SAFETY REQUIREMENTS

GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE

SAFETY REQUIREMENTS - THE FUTURE

CONCLUSIONS

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

NATIONAL REGULATION

SAFETY REQUIREMENTS



CONCLUSIONS

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D.Lgs. del 15-

03-06 MILITARY AIRCRAFT

(UAVs INCLUDED)

IT MOD

DGAA WEIGHT UAV CLASSES

W < 2 kg MICRO

2 <W< 20 kg MINI

20 <W <150 kg LIGHT

150 <W <500 kg TUAV

500 <W <2720 kg

SUAV W > 2720 kg

- UNCLASSIFIED -

NATIONAL

REGULATION SAFETY REQUIREMENT

GEOGRAPHICAL

SAFETY CASE CONCLUSIONS

NATIONAL REGULATION

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Military UAVs operations are

allowed over the Italian territory,

within selected areas and corridors,

in order to comply with the current

defence operational requirements.

MILITARY UAVS OPERATION IN ITALY

NATIONAL REGULATION

- UNCLASSIFIED -

NATIONAL

REGULATION

SAFETY

REQUIREMENTS

GEOGRAPHICAL


http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immagine:Satellite_image_of_Italy_in_March_2003.jpg

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NATIONAL REGULATION

Airworthiness assessment

(Safety Analysis)

Operative Areas

Definition

Definition of

ATM Procedures

DTO

DGAA

AMI

ENAC +

ENAV

03

DPR 178 - July 17, 2004

AER.P-6

AER.P-2

They are regularly updated to include lessons learned

from national and international experiences

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Today IT operate UAVs which are not fully

compliant with safety requirements set by DGAA

(e.g. Sense&Avoid Capabilities)

1.Population Density Restrictions

2.Mission Safety Evaluation

3.Segregated Areas identified in accordance with Civil NAA

MITIGATION FACTORS

NATIONAL REGULATION

- UNCLASSIFIED -

NATIONAL

REGULATION

SAFETY

REQUIREMENTS

GEOGRAPHICAL


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TABLE OF CONTENTS

NATIONAL REGULATION

SAFETY REQUIREMENTS



CONCLUSIONS

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UAV SAFETY REQUIREMENTS

DGAA is carrying out a proper updating to its

airworthiness requirements regulations in the contract

(AER.P-6) and certification activities (AER.P-2),

concerning UAVs aspects

Lessons Learned from using previous versions

of the regulations

Rationale produced by DGAA specialists in

FINAS teams

- UNCLASSIFIED -

NATIONAL

REGULATION

SAFETY

REQUIREMENTS

GEOGRAPHICAL


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FAILURE CONDITION SEVERITY (STANAG 4671 Ed 2)

Failure conditions that are expected to result in at least

uncontrolled flight (including flight outside of pre-planned

or contingency flight profiles/areas) and/or uncontrolled

crash,

or

Failure conditions which may result in a fatality to UAV

crew or ground staff.

CATASTROPHIC

[=UNCONTROLLED

FLIGHT or DEATH]

AER.P-6 DEFINITION FOR UAV (=STANAG 4671 Ed 2) CATEGORY

HAZARDOUS [=UAV LOSS

WITHOUT ANY

FATALITY]

Failure conditions that either by themselves or in

conjunction with increased crew workload, are expected

to result in a controlled-trajectory termination or forced

landing potentially leading to the loss of the UAV where it

can be reasonably expected that a fatality will not occur.

or

Failure conditions for which it can reasonably expected

that a fatality to UAV crew or ground staff will not occur

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SAFETY REQUIREMENTS

It is the result of the trade off activity among different

needs:

• to develop new UAV technology

• to take into account technological constraints

• to protect overflown people

- UNCLASSIFIED -

NATIONAL

REGULATION

SAFETY

REQUIREMENTS

GEOGRAPHICAL


SAFETY REQUIREMENTS

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AIRWORTHINESS REQUIREMENTS

NATIONAL

REGULATION

SAFETY

REQUIREMENTS

GEOGRAPHICAL


CIVIL REQUIREMENTs

• At the moment there are NO specific airworthiness requirements (CS,

FAR) for UAVs

• There are Policy Statements issued to address UAV Certification

(e.g. E.Y01301 mentioning STANAG 4671)

• Working groups activated

MILITARY REQUIREMENTs

NATO countries have been working for several years to develop a

complete regulatory framework to fly UAV in non-segregated airspace

(FINAS)

STANAG 4671 Ed2 (Fixed wing >150kg) – Ratified

STANAG 4702 (Rotary wing) - Ready for ratification by end 2011

STANAG 4703 (Fixed wing <150kg) – Ready for ratification

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3 SCENARIOS ARE IDENTIFIED

I. NON TERMINAL PHASES OF THE FLIGHT – CRUISE

“LOSS OF THE UAV WITH ACTIVATION OF THE PARACHUTE”

(ALMOST VERTICAL DESCENT WITH LOW KINETIC ENERGY AT THE IMPACT)

II. NON TERMINAL PHASES OF THE FLIGHT – CRUISE

“LOSS OF THE UAV AT HIGH SPEED”

(DESCENT WITH HIGH KINETIC ENERGY AT THE IMPACT)

III. INITIAL/TERMINAL PHASES OF THE FLIGHT –

TAKEOFF/LANDING/CLIMB/APPROACH:

“LOSS OF THE UAV AT LOW SPEED”

(DESCENT WITH MEDIUM KINETIC ENERGY AT THE IMPACT)

METHOD TO CALCULATE THE POPULATION

DENSITY RESTRICTION

(ref. FAA AC-431.35-1)

POPULATION DENSITY RESTRICTION

NATIONAL

REGULATION

SAFETY

REQUIREMENTS

GEOGRAPHICAL


- UNCLASSIFIED -

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332211 APAPAP

PDP

scenerysceneryscenery

CATCUM

phases-terminalExp 3-scenario



P

1P

11P

flightTimeosure%loss-UAV

flightTimeosure%parachutefailureloss-UAV

flightTimeosure%parachutefailureloss-UAV

TP

TPP

TPP

1.82 m

L

h

0.6096

m

Rp= 0.3048 m

DEBRIS

AREA

POPULATION DENSITY RESTRICTION

Impact Area

NATIONAL

REGULATION

SAFETY

REQUIREMENTS

GEOGRAPHICAL


- UNCLASSIFIED -

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EFFECT ON COSTS

? 1E-5 or 1E-6 ?

MoD procure UAVs to fly them and NOT to loose

COST SAVINGs due to

a lower crash rate could be considered

when fixing the level of safety

It is possible to

statistically foresee

the number of crashes

and the ground fatalities

to determine

the cost benefit of

increasing in safety

Is it better to procure a HALE UAV around 4000 kg

with 1E-5 or 1E-6 / fh probability of catastrophic event?

NATIONAL

REGULATION

SAFETY

REQUIREMENTS

GEOGRAPHICAL


- UNCLASSIFIED -

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MTOW [kg] 4500

length [m] 11,0

span [m] 20,1

max speed [kts] 240

max altitude [kft] 50

in-service life [h] 15000

cost per UAV 1E-5 [m$] 10

cost per UAV 1E-6 [m$] 20

cost per human life [m$] 6

Worldwide fleet dimension [# of UAV]

250

Over-flown average population density

[inh/km2]

100

(in IT this is

180)

Conservatively we

assume that an order

of magnitude in

safety doubles costs

of each UAV

Average cost of

human life from

different US sources

NATIONAL

REGULATION

SAFETY

REQUIREMENTS

GEOGRAPHICAL


COSTS EVALUATION

- UNCLASSIFIED -

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COSTS EVALUATION…an example

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0 5 10 15 20 25

x = number of people

p(x

) =

pro

ba

bilit

y o

f lo

os

ing

#x

liv

es

1,00E-05

1,00E-060%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

x = number of UAVs

p(x

) =

pro

ba

bilit

y o

f lo

os

ing

#x

UA

Vs

1,00E-05

1,00E-06

1E-5

42 UAVs with

80% C.L.

1E-6

5 UAVs with

82% C.L.

1E-5

14 LIVEs with 91% C.L.

1E-6

2 LIVEs with 92% C.L.

UAVs

LIVEs

NATIONAL

REGULATION

SAFETY

REQUIREMENTS

GEOGRAPHICAL


- UNCLASSIFIED -

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Safety Requirement 1,00E-05

COST for UAVs losses [m$] 420

COST for LIVEs losses [m$] 84

TOTAL COST DUE TO CATASTROPHIC FAILUREs [m$] 504

Safety Requirement 1,00E-06

COST for UAVs losses [m$] 100

COST for LIVEs losses [m$] 12

TOTAL COST DUE TO CATASTROPHIC FAILUREs [m$] 112

504-112=392

AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE IN SAFETY (FROM 1E-5 TO

1E-6) COSTS LESS THAN THE CUMULATIVE COST OF

CATASTROPHIC EVENTS

NATIONAL

REGULATION

SAFETY

REQUIREMENTS

GEOGRAPHICAL


- UNCLASSIFIED -

COSTS EVALUATION…an example

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

NATIONAL REGULATION

SAFETY REQUIREMENTS



CONCLUSIONS

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Mission phase exposure time is introduced to allow the

UAV system to fly over an higher populated area for a

limited period of time

i

iiiimissioncatastr TDPAPP %

GEOGRAPHICAL MISSION SAFETY

NATIONAL

REGULATION

SAFETY

REQUIREMENTS

GEOGRAPHICAL


- UNCLASSIFIED -

MISSION PHASE EXPOSURE TIME

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UAV GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE

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TAKE OFF Exp.Time=0,51% DP=0

TAKEOFF


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CLIMB

CLIMB Exp.Time=0,77% DP=13


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TR

AN

SFER

1

TRANSFER 1 Exp.Time=5,20% DP=22 TRANSFER 2 Exp.Time=4,39% DP=22

TR

AN

SFER

2

OPERATIONAL AREA Exp.Time=87,55% DP=4


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DESCENT

DESCENT Exp.Time=1,06% DP=13


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LANDING Exp.Time=0,51% DP=0

LANDING


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TABLE OF CONTENTS

NATIONAL REGULATION

SAFETY REQUIREMENTS



CONCLUSIONS

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DGAA is carrying out a proper updating to its

airworthiness requirements regulations in the contract

(AER.P-6) and certification activities (AER.P-2),

concerning UAVs aspects

Rationale produced by DGAA specialists in

FINAS teams

- UNCLASSIFIED -

NATIONAL

REGULATION

SAFETY

REQUIREMENTS

GEOGRAPHICAL


Lessons Learned from using previous

versions of the regulations

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(15;1E-4)

(150;1E-5)

(750;1E-5)

(4000;1E-6)

1,E-07

1,E-06

1,E-05

1,E-04

1,E-03

0,1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000

Maximum Take-Off Weight [kg]

Cu

mu

lati

ve

Pro

ba

bilit

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ata

str

op

hic

[/f

lh]

MICRO MINI LIGHT TACTICAL STRATEGIC

0,0015 / MTOW

0,0813 / (MTOW)1,36

CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF CATASTROPHIC EVENT

This smooth curve is better

than a step function,

1 kg increase doesn’t imply

an order of magnitude in safety

This curve is not based on

arbitrary assumptions,

but it is derived from correlation

of total UAV energy and

fuel capacity with weight

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(15;1E-4)

(150;1E-5)

(750;1E-5)

(4000;1E-6)

1,E-07

1,E-06

1,E-05

1,E-04

1,E-03

0,1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000


Cu

mu

lati

ve

Pro

ba

bilit

y C

ata

str

op

hic

[/f

lh]


0,0015 / MTOW

0,0813 / (MTOW)1,36

IN ORDER TO FLY IN ITALY WITHOUT ANY POPULATION DENSITY RESTRICTION,

A UAV SHALL COMPLY WITH THIS SAFETY REQUIREMENT

In case of not

compliance,

Population Density

Restrictions shall be

imposed accordingly

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1,E-07

1,E-06

1,E-05

1,E-04

1,E-03

0,1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000


Cu

mu

lati

ve

Pro

ba

bilit

y C

ata

str

op

hic

[/f

lh]


150 kg

4000 kg

Areas of population

density limitations

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

NATIONAL REGULATION

SAFETY REQUIREMENTS



CONCLUSIONS

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CONCLUSIONS

Italy routinely operates UAVs within a robust regulatory framework

UAVs Airworthiness is assessed with STANAG 4671 Ed 2,

STANAG 4703 (<150kg); STANAG 4702 (rotorcraft)

For a UAV > 4000kg (designed with 1E-5 cumulative probability of

catastrophic event) it is demonstrated that huge benefit (in terms

of lives and cost) derives from designing UAVs with 1E-6

requirement

Italy has a strong reservation against STANAG 4671.1309 (safety)

requirement, which is 1E-5/fh cumulative probability of

catastrophic event from UAVs with MTOW 150 kg up to 20000 kg

NATIONAL

REGULATION

SAFETY

REQUIREMENTS

GEOGRAPHICAL


- UNCLASSIFIED -

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ITALIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENCE

DGAA – DIREZIONE GENERALE DEGLI ARMAMENTI AERONAUTICI (AIR ARMAMENTS GENERAL DIRECTORATE)

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