I konoiiii (l.in Ki-ii.ing.in Indonesia Volume I Nomor 4, 20(12

An Experiment of Small Region Input-Output Model:

A Fundamental Economic Structure Approach to Kabupaten Hulu Sungai Tengah

Muhammad Handry Imansyah

Kata Kunci: Analisis inpiil-imtpul - Struktur ekoiuvni - Pembangunan daerah - Hidii Sungai Tengah, Kaiiniantan Selatan

Key Word : Input output analysis - Fxonoinic structure - Local development - Hulu Sungai Tengah, Kalimantan Selatan

A b s t r a k

D a l a m s e m a n g a t o t o n o m i d a e r a h p a d a l i n g k a t k a b u p a t e n d a n kota, p e m a h a m a n

a k a n s t r u k t u r e k o n o m i p a d a t i n g k a t k a b u p a t e n d a n k o t a s a n g a t p e n t i n g u n t u k

d i k c t a h i i i g u n a m e n e n t u k a n s t r a t e g i p e m b a n g u n a n d a e r a h . B e r k a i t a n d e n g a n h a l

i t u , t a b e l i n p u t - o u t p u t m e r u p a k a n s a l a h s a t u alat a n a l i s i s xjang p a l i n g baik

u n t u k t u j u a n t e r s e b u t , k a r e t i a ittcitgaiitbarkait k e t e r k a i t a n ckoitoiiii a n t a r s e k t o r

s e c a r a m e n y e l u r u h . T e t a p i , u m u m n y a k e n d a l a y a n g d i h a d a p i u n t u k tncttibuat

t a b e l t e r s e b u t a d a l a h t i n g g i n y a b i a y a u n t u k m e m b u a t i t y a t e r u t a m a d e n g a n

m e t o d e s u r v e i .

M a k a l a h i n i b e r t u j u a n u n t u k m e n e r a p k a n m e t o d e h i b r i d a d a l a m p e m b u a t a n

t a b e l i n p u t - o u t p u t r e g i o n a l d e n g a n p e n d e k a t a n s t r u k t u r e k o n o m i f u n d a m e n t a l d i

I n d o n e s i a . I m a n s y a h ( 2 0 0 0 ) m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a p e n d e k a t a n s t r u k t u r e k o i w m i

f u n d a m e n t a l t e r s e b u t r e l a t i f r e n d a h d a r i segi b i a y a d e n g a n t i n g k a t a k u r a s i y a n g

m e m a d a i . K o n s e p s t r u k t u r e k o n o m i f u n d a m e n t a l y a n g a i v a l n y a d i k e m b a n g k a n

j e n s e n . W e s t d a n H e w i n g s ( 1 9 8 8 ) m e m b e r i k a n k e m u n g k i n a n p e n g g i i n a a n n y a

u n t u k m e m b u a t t a b e l i n p u t - o u t p u t d i m a k s u d W e s t h u i z e n ( 1 9 9 7 ) m e n e r a p k a n

p e n d e k a t a n i n i u n t u k m e m b u a t tabel i n p u t - o u t p u t r e g i o n a l d e n g a n m e t o d e

h i b r i d a u n t u k A f r i k a S e l a t a n .

D i d a l a m m a k a l a h i n i , p e n u l i s m e n g g u n a k a n b e n t u k f u n g s i y a n g s e d i k i t b e r b e d a

d a n v a r i a b e l i n d e p e n d e n y a n g b e r b e d a p u l a d e n g a n p e n e l i t i a n W e s t h u i z e n u n t u k

m e m b u a t t a b e l i n p u t - o u t p u t r e g i o n a l k a b u p a t e n , y a i t u k a b u p a t e n H u l u S u n g a i

T e n g a h ( H S T ) , K a l i m a n t a n S e l a t a n . S e c a r a h o l i s t i k , t a b e l i n p u t - o u t p u t H S T

d a p a t m e n c e r m i n k a n b e s a r a n d a n s t r u k t u r e k o n o m i y a n g t e r g a m b a r d a r i

t a m p i l a n u t a m a t a b e l t e r s e b u t .

4 3 7

Imansyah

1 . I N T R O D U C T I O N

T h e a i m o f t h i s p a p e r i s t o a p p l y t h e F i m d a m e n t a l E c o n o m i c S t r u c t u r e

( F E S ) a p p r o a c h i n t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f s m a l l r e g i o n a l i n p u t - o u t p u t t a b l e

f o r t h e s u b - p r o v i n c e s i n S o u t h K a l i m a n t a n P r o v i n c e , K a b u p a t e n H u l u

S u n g a i T e n g a h , r e p r e s e n t i n g a r u r a l e c o n o m y . J e n s e n , W e s t a n d H e w i n g s

( 1 9 8 8 ) p r o v i d e d a u s e f u l i n s i g h t i n t o t h e s i m i l a r i t i e s o f r e g i o n a l

e c o n o m i e s . T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d i n t h e ( F E S ) c a n b e u s e d t o

c o n s t r u c t a n o t h e r r e g i o n a l i n p u t - o u t p u t t a b l e . H o w e v e r , t h i s p o t e n t i a l

t e c h n i q u e h a s n o t b e e n f u l l y e x p l o r e d . V a n d e e r W e s t h u i z e n ( 1 9 9 7 ) t r i e d

t o i m p l e m e n t t h i s a p p r o a c h f o r c o n s t r u c t i n g a h y b r i d r e g i o n a l t a b l e i n

S o u t h A f r i c a . I m a n s y a h , W e s t a n d J e n s e n ( 2 0 0 0 ) a l s o t r i e d t o e x e r c i s e t h e

a p p r o a c h f o r c o n s t r u c t i n g s m a l l r e g i o n a l i n p u t - o u t p u t m o d e l f o r a n

u r b a n e c o n o m y , t h e c i t y o f B a n j a r m a s i n .

T h e r e s e e m s t o b e g e n e r a l a g r e e m e n t i n i n p u t - o u t p u t a n a l y s i s t h a t

t h e h y b r i d m e t h o d i s t h e m o s t f e a s i b l e m e t h o d f o r c o n s t r u c t i n g r e g i o n a l

i n p u t - o u t p u t t a b l e s ( L a b r 1 9 9 3 ; V a n d e e r W e s t h u i z e n 1 9 9 2 ; W e s t 1 9 9 0 ) .

T h e h y b r i d m e t h o d a p p e a r s t o b e t h e m o s t c o s t - e f f e c t i v e a n d w e l l w i t h i n

t h e r a n g e o f a c c e p t a b l e a c c u r a c y . T h i s m e t h o d m i x e s t h e a d v a n t a g e s o f

t h e s u r v e y a n d t h e n o n - s u r v e y m e t h o d s f o r c o n s t r u c t i n g r e g i o n a l i n p u t -

o u t p u t t a b l e s a n d a v o i d s t h e d i s a d v a n t a g e s . A c c u r a c y i s c o n s i d e r e d t h e

m a i n a d v a n t a g e o f s u r v e y m e t h o d s , w h i l e t h e s p e e d a n d l o w c o s t a r e

w e l l - k n o w n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f n o n - s u r v e y m e t h o d s f o r c o n s t r u c t i n g

r e g i o n a l i n p u t - o u t p u t t a b l e s . L a b r ( 1 9 9 3 ) p o i n t e d o u t t h a t o n l y l i m i t e d

p a p e r s d i s c u s s h y b r i d m e t h o d s ( f o r e x a m p l e B o o m s m a & O o s t e r b a v e n

1 9 9 2 ; H a n s e n & T i e b o u t 1 9 6 3 ; H e w i n g s 1 9 7 7 ; H e w i n g s & R o m a n e s 1 9 8 1 ;

W e s t e f a l . 1 9 8 4 ; W e s t 1 9 8 1 b , 1 9 9 0 ) a n d o n l y t w o r e f e r e n c e b o o k s G e n s e n

et a l . 1 9 7 9 ; S c b a f f e r e t a l . 1 9 7 6 ) .

H y b r i d m e t h o d s c o v e r t h r e e a p p r o a c h e s : t o p d o w n , b o t t o m u p a n d

h o r i z o n t a l . T h e t o p d o w n a p p r o a c h i s t h e m o s t r e c o g n i s e d a n d w i d e l y

u s e d d u e t o t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f n a t i o n a l i n p u t - o u t p u t t a b l e s . T h i s

a p p r o a c h t a k e s a d v a n t a g e o f t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f n a t i o n a l i n p u t - o u t p u t

t a b l e s a s r e f e r e n c e t a b l e s . O n t h e o t h e r b a n d , t h e b o t t o m u p a p p r o a c h

a p p e a r s t o b e a p p r o p r i a t e f o r s m a l l r e g i o n s b e c a u s e r e s o u r c e s a r e b a s e d

o n r e g i o n a l d a t a . T h e r e f o r e , t h e l a r g e r t h e r e g i o n , t h e m o r e d a t a a r e

r e q u i r e d . T h e h o r i z o n t a l a p p r o a c h i s u s u a l l y a s s u m e d f o r u p d a t i n g

r e g i o n a l t a b l e s . T h e h o r i z o n t a l a p p r o a c h u s e s o t h e r r e g i o n a l i n p u t - o u t p u t

4 3 8

A n Exper iment of Sma l l Region Input-Output Mode l

t a b l e a s t b e b a s i s f o r t h e f i r s t a p p r o x i m a t i o n . H o w e v e r , i n t b e h y b r i d

m e t h o d c o n t e x t , t h e r e a r e s o m e i s s u e s t h a t a r i s e , f o r e x a m p l e , b o w t o

c h o o s e r e f e r e n c e t a b l e s a n d b o w t o i n s e r t s u p e r i o r d a t a . T h e r e a r e t w o

i m p o r t a n t i s s u e s f o r t b e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t b e h o r i z o n t a l a p p r o a c h . T b e

s t u d y o f e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e o f f e r s o n e p o s s i b i l i t y t o h e l p a n a l y s t s

d e t e r m i n e t b e c h o i c e o f r e f e r e n c e t a b l e s .

A n o t h e r m a j o r i s s u e i s t b e i n s e r t i o n o f s u p e r i o r d a t a . A s L a b r ( 1 9 9 3 ,

p . 2 8 8 ) p o i n t e d o u t : p r o b a b l y t h e m o s t open a r e n a i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t of h y b r i d

m o d e l s i s t h a t f o r i n s e r t i o n s u p e r i o r d a t a . M a n y a n a l y s t s ( s e e H e w i n g s &

R o m a n o s 1 9 8 1 ; J e n s e n & W e s t 1 9 8 0 ; W e s t 1 9 8 2 ) p r o v i d e a g u i d e f o r

i n s e r t i n g s u p e r i o r d a t a . T b e a l g o r i t h m f o r i n s e r t i n g s u p e r i o r d a t a

c o n c e n t r a t e s o n t b e i m p o r t a n t c o m p o n e n t s o f t b e i n p u t - o u t p u t t a b l e s .

H o w e v e r , t b e s t u d y o f t b e m a i n c o m p o n e n t s o n l y m a y n o t e n o u g h t o

r e d u c e s u p e r i o r d a t a r e q u i r e m e n t s . T b e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f o t h e r

c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f i n p u t - o u t p u t c e l l s i n c l u d i n g p r e d i c t a b i l i t y a n d s t a b i l i t y

i s a l s o n e c e s s a r y w h e n u s i n g l e s s s u p e r i o r d a t a r e q u i r e m e n t s .

2. T H E C O N C E P T O F E C O N O M I C S T R U C T U R E

W e s t a n d J e n s e n ( 1 9 8 7 ) n o t e d t h a t t b e t e r m s t r u c t u r e i s d i f f i c u l t t o d e f i n e .

H o w e v e r , t b e t e r m e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e i n i n p u t - o u t p u t o r s o c i a l

a c c o u n t i n g m a t r i x s y s t e m s i s c o n s i d e r e d a s t b e a r r a n g e m e n t a n d s t r e n g t h

o f t b e f l o w s a m o n g a c t i v i t i e s i n r e g i o n a l a n d i n t e r r e g i o n a l e c o n o m i e s

( W e s t & J e n s e n 1 9 8 7 ; H e w i n g s , J e n s e n & W e s t 1 9 8 7 ) . B o r r o w i n g f r o m t b e

d i c t i o n a r y d e f i n i t i o n , t b e t e r m s t r u c t u r e i s d e f i n e d a s t h e w a y i n w h i c h

s o m e t h i n g i s c o n s t r u c t e d o r o r g a n i z e d ; a s u p p o r t i n g f r a m e w o r k o r t h e e s s e n t i a l

p a r t s of t h i n g ; a c o n s t r u c t e d t h i n g ; a c o m p l e x w h o l e ( T u r n e r & T u r n e r 1 9 8 9 ) .

T h i s d e f i n i t i o n i m p l i e s t h a t t b e t e r m s t r u c t u r e c o n t a i n s t h r e e e l e m e n t s ,

i . e . o r g a n i z a t i o n , e s s e n t i a l a n d c o n s t r u c t i o n O r i n o t h e r w o r d s , i t

r e p r e s e n t s t b e e s s e n c e o f t b e w h o l e t h i n g a n d i s c o n s t r u c t e d . A n a l o g o u s

t o t h i s d e f i n i t i o n , i t c a n b e a p p l i e d t o a n e c o n o m y . E c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e

h a s a f u n d a m e n t a l p a t t e r n w h i c h i s c o n s t r u c t e d s y s t e m a t i c a l l y .

H e w i n g s , J e n s e n a n d W e s t ( 1 9 8 7 ) r a i s e d t b e i s s u e o f b o w t o

d i s t i n g u i s h r e g i o n a l e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e a r e a r a n g e o f r u r a l t o

m e t r o p o l i t a n e c o n o m i e s . T h e y a l s o d i s c u s s b o w t o d e s c r i b e t b e s t r u c t u r e

o f a n e c o n o m y a t a p o i n t i n t i m e a n d s u b s e q u e n t l y e v a l u a t e c h a n g e s i n

t h a t s t r u c t u r e ( s e e F i g u r e 1). R a i s i n g t h e s e i n q u i r i e s , t h e y e x p l o r e d s o m e

m e a s u r e s f o r e v a l u a t i o n o f e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e . T h i s p a p e r r e v i e w s a

4 3 9

Imansyah

c o m p r e h e n s i v e a n a l y t i c a l t o o l f o r m e a s u r i n g e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e . T h i s

e x p l o r a t i o n l e a d s t o t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f f u n d a m e n t a l e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e

( J e n s e n , W e s t & H e w i n g s 1 9 8 8 ) . T h e y u s e d a n i n n o v a t i v e a p p r o a c h t o

e x a m i n e r e g i o n a l e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e i n A u s t r a l i a . T h e o b j e c t i v e o f t h i s

a p p r o a c h w a s t o o b s e r v e t h e r e g u l a r i t i e s a n d s i m i l a r i t i e s o f r e g i o n a l

e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e o v e r s p a c e . T h i s a p p r o a c h a t t e m p t s t o r e m e d y t h e

d e f i c i e n c i e s o f p r e v i o u s a p p r o a c h e s .

F i g u r e 1 S p a c e - t i m e of R e g i o n a l E c o n o m i c S t r u c t u r e s

T i m e Space

At I t smal l rural resourc e-based metropol i tan state nat ional

e c o n o m y e c o n o m y e c o n o m y e c o n o m y e c o n o m y

t+1 increas ing e c o n o m i c complex i t y -> At

t+2 increas ing levels of connectedness

t+n

Scmra': Hewings, Jensen and West 1987.

D e w h u r s t a n d J e n s e n ( 1 9 9 5 ) c l a i m e d t h a t t h e s t u d y o f e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e

u s i n g i n p u t - o u t p u t h a s t w o p a t h s . T h e f i r s t p a t h i s t o i d e n t i f y t h e

a t t r i b u t e s o f t h e i n p u t - o u t p u t t a b l e s perse u s i n g t o o l s s u c h a s p a t t e r n

a n a l y s i s a n d o t h e r m e a s u r e s o f i n p u t - o u t p u t c o m p a r i s o n . T h e s e c o n d

p a t h a n a l y z e s t h e d e c o m p o s i t i o n o f s t r u c t u r a l c h a n g e s o f e c o n o m i c

s t r u c t u r e o v e r t i m e . I n c o n t r a s t . W e s t ( 1 9 9 8 ) d i v i d e d e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e

i n t o t h r e e c a t e g o r i e s . W e s t ' s d e s c r i p t i o n e m p h a s i z e d t h e m e a s u r e m e n t

t o o l s u s e d i n s t u d y i n g e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e . T h e f i r s t g r o u p d e a l s w i t h

m e a s u r e s o f e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e u s i n g s o m e s i m p l e a n a l y t i c a l t o o l s , f o r

e x a m p l e s i m p l e e c o n o m i c i n d i c a t o r s c o v e r i n g v a l u e a d d e d , e m p l o y m e n t ,

g r o s s o u t p u t , e x p o r t s a n d i m p o r t s . T h e s e c o n d g r o u p c o n s i s t s o f m o r e

s o p h i s t i c a t e d a n a l y t i c a l t o o l s l i k e m u l t i p l i e r a n a l y s i s , p a t t e r n a n a l y s i s ,

t r i a n g u l a t i o n , a n d o t h e r h o l i s t i c m e a s u r e s o f c o n n e c t e d n e s s . T h e t h i r d

4 4 0

A n Exper iment of Sma l l Region Input-Output M o d e l

g r o u p u s e s m o r e i n n o v a t i v e a n a l y t i c a l t o o l s s u c h a s t h e s t r u c t u r a l

d e c o m p o s i t i o n a p p r o a c h , f i e l d o f i n f l u e n c e , f u n d a m e n t a l e c o n o m i c

s t r u c t u r e , a n d m i n i m a l f l o w a n a l y s i s .

H o w e v e r , i t s e e m s t h a t m o s t a p p r o a c h e s a r e l e s s c o m p r e h e n s i v e

a n d h o l i s t i c i n s t u d y i n g e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e i n i n p u t - o u t p u t a n a l y s i s .

E v e n t h o u g h J e n s e n a n d h i s a s s o c i a t e s ( 1 9 8 8 , 1 9 9 1 ) p r o v i d e d a u s e f u l

i n s i g h t t o s t u d y e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e i n a h o l i s t i c w a y , t h e s e s t u d i e s s t i l l

n e e d f u r t h e r d e v e l o p m e n t . I n a d d i t i o n , m o s t a p p r o a c h e s e x a m i n e

e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e u s i n g l i m i t e d a n a l y t i c a l t o o l s . F o r e x a m p l e , i n v e r s e

i m p o r t a n t p a r a m e t e r u s e s p a r t s t o r e p r e s e n t t h e w h o l e s t r u c t u r e . T h i s

a p p r o a c h d e s c r i b e s t h e t a b l e a s a w h o l e b y i d e n t i f y i n g m o r e s i g n i f i c a n t

e l e m e n t s o f t h e t a b l e . A n o t h e r s t u d y f o c u s e s o n s t a b i l i t y o r s t r u c t u r a l

c h a n g e .

M e a n w h i l e , J e n s e n a n d h i s a s s o c i a t e s e m p h a s i z e t h e p r e d i c t a b i l i t y

c o m p o n e n t . E v e n t h o u g h t h e y i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e h a s

s o m e r e g u l a r i t i e s a n d s i m i l a r i t i e s , t h e y h a d n o t v e r i f i e d w h e t h e r t h i s

c o m m o n p a t t e r n e x i s t s a c r o s s c o u n t r i e s . T h e r e f o r e , e m p i r i c a l e v i d e n c e

f r o m d i f f e r e n t e c o n o m i c e n v i r o n m e n t s a n d d e v e l o p m e n t s t a g e s i s s t i l l

n e e d e d t o m a k e a g e n e r a l c o n c l u s i o n f o r t h i s p h e n o m e n o n .

T h e r e a p p e a r s t o b e g e n e r a l a g r e e m e n t t h a t t h e e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e

o f a r e g i o n o r a n a t i o n h a s s o m e c o m m o n p a t t e r n s . I n q u i r y i n t o

i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f c o m m o n p a t t e r n s o r s i m i l a r i t i e s a c r o s s r e g i o n s h a s

a t t r a c t e d a n a l y s t s f o r m a n y y e a r s . M a n y a n a l y s t s s h o w e v i d e n c e t h a t

t h e r e i s a s i m i l a r i t y o f e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e f o r s o m e c o u n t r i e s ( f o r

e x a m p l e C h e n e r y & W a t a n a b e 1 9 5 8 ; L e o n t i e f 1 9 6 3 ; S i m p s o n & T s u k u i

1 9 6 5 ) . H o w e v e r , t h e s i m i l a r i t i e s r a i s e f u r t h e r q u e s t i o n s , f o r e x a m p l e , a r e

t h e s i m i l a r i t i e s a c r o s s r e g i o n s o r n a t i o n s p r e d i c t a b l e , s t a b l e a n d a l s o

i m p o r t a n t ?

I f t h e s i m i l a r i t i e s a r e p r e d i c t a b l e , i t m e a n s t h a t t h e c o m m o n p a t t e r n

o f e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e i s e x p e c t e d t o b e s i m i l a r w i t h o t h e r r e g i o n s w h e n

t h e e c o n o m i c s i z e a n d d e v e l o p m e n t s t a g e s a r e a l s o s i m i l a r . T h e

p r e d i c t a b i l i t y o f a c o m m o n p a t t e m o f e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e w a s f o u n d b y

J e n s e n , W e s t a n d H e w i n g s ( 1 9 8 8 ) . T h e y f o u n d t h a t s o m e p a r t s o f

e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e i n A u s t r a l i a n r e g i o n a l e c o n o m i e s a r e p r e d i c t a b l e a n d

r e l a t e d t o e c o n o m i c s i z e .

4 4 1

Imansyah

M e a n w h i l e , t h e s t a b i l i t y o f s o m e c o m p o n e n t s o f e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e

r e f e r s t o t h e i n e v i t a b l e p r e s e n c e o f s t a b i l i t y a c r o s s r e g i o n s o f d i f f e r e n t

e c o n o m i c s i z e . T h e l a s t i s s u e i s i m p o r t a n c e . T h i s t e r m r e f e r s t o t h e p a r t s

o f a n e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e w h i c h i s c o n s i d e r e d s i g n i f i c a n t t o t h e w h o l e

s y s t e m . T h e s e p r e v i o u s a p p r o a c h e s i n s t u d j d n g e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e w e r e

u s e d o n l y p a r t i a l l y .

T h i s m e a n s t h a t m o s t a p p r o a c h e s o n l y c o n c e n t r a t e o n i d e n t i f y i n g

o n l y o n e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c r a t h e r t h a n a l l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s s i m u l t a n e o u s l y . F o r

e x a m p l e , a n a l y s t s o n l y c o n c e n t r a t e o n t h e i m p o r t a n t e l e m e n t s o f t h e

i n p u t - o u t p u t t a b l e . H e w i n g s , S o n i s a n d J e n s e n ( 1 9 8 8 a ; 1 9 8 8 b ) i n d i c a t e d

t h a t r e g i o n a l e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e m a y h a v e t h r e e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s ( s t a b i l i t y ,

p r e d i c t a b i l i t y a n d i m p o r t a n c e ) s i m u l t a n e o u s l y . H o w e v e r , t h e y a r g u e d

t h a t t h e s e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a r e n o t m u t u a l l y e x c l u s i v e . T h e s e p a p e r s

e x t e n d e d t h e n o t i o n o f t h e f u n d a m e n t a l e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e ( F E S )

d e v e l o p e d b y J e n s e n W e s t a n d H e w i n g s ( 1 9 8 8 ) . L a t e r , V a n d e r

W e s t h u i z e n ( 1 9 9 2 ) a p p l i e d t h i s c o n c e p t f o r c o n s t r u c t i n g r e g i o n a l i n p u t -

o u t p u t t a b l e s . H e e x a m i n e d t h e s e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s u s i n g d i f f e r e n t

a p p r o a c h e s . T h i s a p p r o a c h t r i e s t o s t u d y e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e i n a m o r e

c o m p r e h e n s i v e w a y . T h e r e f o r e , t h e F E S c o n c e p t m a y n o t c o n s i d e r j u s t

o n e a n a l y t i c a l t o o l . I n o t h e r w o r d s , n o n e o f t h e a n a l y t i c a l t o o l s i s m o r e

i m p o r t a n t t h a n t h e o t h e r s . S e v e r a l a n a l y t i c a l t o o l s m a y c o m p l e m e n t e a c h

o t h e r . T h e r e f o r e , m a n y a n a l y t i c a l t o o l s c a n b e u s e d s i m u l t a n e o u s l y t o

e x a m i n e t h e e x i s t e n c e o f t h e F E S a n d i d e n t i f y i t s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . I n

a d d i t i o n , t h e o b s e r v a t i o n o f w h o l e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s u s i n g s e v e r a l

a p p r o a c h e s w i l l v e r i f y t h e c o n s i s t e n c y o f t h e e x i s t e n c e o f t h e F E S c o n c e p t .

3 . H O R I Z O N T A L H Y B R I D A P P R O A C H

T h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e h o r i z o n t a l a p p r o a c h h e a v i l y r e l i e s o n r e f e r e n c e

t a b l e s . U n l i k e t h e t o p d o w n a p p r o a c h , t h e h o r i z o n t a l a p p r o a c h r e q u i r e s

r e f e r e n c e t a b l e s w h i c h s o m e t i m e s a r e n o t a v a i l a b l e f o r t h i s p u r p o s e . I f t h e

e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e i n t h e r e g i o n i n q u e s t i o n i s v e r y d i f f e r e n t f r o m

a v a i l a b l e s u r v e y - b a s e d t a b l e s , s e r i o u s e r r o r s m a y b e i n t r o d u c e d . T h e

c h o i c e o f r e f e r e n c e t a b l e s b e c o m e v e r y c r u c i a l w h e n u s i n g t h e h o r i z o n t a l

h y b r i d a p p r o a c h .

O n l y H e w i n g s ( 1 9 7 7 ) a n d A n t i l l e ( 1 9 9 0 ) h a v e t r i e d t o d e v e l o p

a n o t h e r i n p u t - o u t p u t t a b l e b y b o r r o w i n g o t h e r i n p u t - o u t p u t c o e f f i c i e n t s .

4 4 2

A n Exper iment o f Sma l l Reg ion Input-Output Mode l

H e w i n g s e x a m i n e d t h i s p o s s i b i l i t y b y e x c h a n g i n g r e g i o n a l c o e f f i c i e n t s

b e t w e e n t h e W a s h i n g t o n 1 9 6 3 a n d K a n s a s 1 9 6 5 s u r v e y - b a s e d t a b l e s . H e

c l a i m e d t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h i s m e t h o d w a s s a t i s f a c t o r y w h e n t h e R A S

m e t h o d w a s u s e d . S i m i l a r l y , A n t i l l e ( 1 9 9 0 ) u s e d t h e G e r m a n i n p u t -

o u t p u t t a b l e a s a r e f e r e n c e t a b l e f o r c o n s t r u c t i n g a n i n p u t - o u t p u t t a b l e o f

S w i t z e r l a n d . P r o b l e m s e m e r g e w h e n t h e r e i s n o a v a i l a b l e r e f e r e n c e t a b l e

o r i f t h e e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e o f t h e r e g i o n i n q u e s t i o n i s v e r y d i f f e r e n t

f r o m t h e a v a i l a b l e t a b l e . F o r e x a m p l e , t h e a v a i l a b l e t a b l e m a y b e f o r a n

u r b a n a n d m e t r o p o l i t a n e c o n o m y , b u t t h e r e g i o n i n q u e s t i o n i s a r u r a l

a n d a g r i c u l t u r a l e c o n o m y . H e n c e , t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f s u i t a b l e r e f e r e n c e

t a b l e s i s t h e m a j o r i s s u e f o r h o r i z o n t a l a p p r o a c h .

H e w i n g s ( 1 9 8 4 ) a r g u e d t h a t t h e r e h a s b e e n a l i t t l e a t t e m p t t o

d e m o n s t r a t e h o w a r e g i o n a l e c o n o m y m i g h t c h a n g e o v e r t i m e a s i t g r o w s

a n d d e v e l o p s . R e g i o n a l e c o n o m i e s m i g h t e x h i b i t s i m i l a r s t r u c t u r e s f o r

r e g i o n s a t t h e s a m e s t a g e o f d e v e l o p m e n t . T h e s t u d y o f e c o n o m i c

s t r u c t u r e i d e n t i f i e s t h e c o m m o n p a t t e r n s o f e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e o v e r t i m e

a m o n g s t r e g i o n s .

A m o n g h y b r i d a p p r o a c h e s , t h e h o r i z o n t a l a p p r o a c h i s n e g l e c t e d i n

t h e l i t e r a t u r e . R e c e n t r e s e a r c h f o c u s e s o n t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t a b l e s a n d

t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f f u n d a m e n t a l e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e ( s e e f o r e x a m p l e ,

J e n s e n , W e s t , & H e w i n g s 1 9 8 8 ; S o n i s & H e w i n g s 1 9 8 9 ) .

T h e s e s t u d i e s t o o k a d v a n t a g e o f t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f m a n y r e g i o n a l t a b l e s

i n c o u n t r i e s s u c h a s A u s t r a l i a . T h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f t h e s e r e g i o n a l t a b l e s

o p e n e d t h e p o s s i b i l i t y t o t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f f u n d a m e n t a l e c o n o m i c

s t r u c t u r e ( F E S ) w h i c h w a s p i o n e e r e d b y J e n s e n a n d h i s a s s o c i a t e s ( 1 9 8 8 ,

1 9 9 1 ) .

V a n d e r W e s t h u i z e n ( 1 9 9 2 ) t r i e d t o u s e t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n f o r

c o n s t r u c t i n g r e g i o n a l i n p u t - o u t p u t t a b l e s . H e a l s o e x a m i n e d t h e F E S '

p r o p e r t i e s w h i c h a r e p r e d i c t a b l e , s t a b l e a n d i m p o r t a n t ( H e w i n g s , S o n i s &

J e n s e n 1 9 8 9 a ; 1 9 8 9 b ) . T h e e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e s e p r o p e r t i e s i n a s e t o f

r e g i o n a l t a b l e s h e l p s t h e a n a l y s t s t o i d e n t i f y t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f e a c h

c e l l i n t h e i n p u t o u t p u t t a b l e s .

T h e s t u d y o f s u c h c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i s n o t a n e w p h e n o m e n o n .

H o w e v e r , m o s t a n a l y s t s c o n c e n t r a t e o n o n e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s u c h a s

i m p o r t a n c e . T h e i s s u e o f i m p o r t a n c e o r i n v e r s e i m p o r t a n c e d o m i n a t e d

t h e l i t e r a t u r e o f i n p u t - o u t p u t e s p e c i a l l y f o r i d e n t i f y i n g e r r o r a n d

4 4 3

Imansyah

s e n s i t i v i t y ( f o r e x a m p l e , B u l l a r d & S e b a l d , 1 9 7 7 ; H e w i n g s , 1 9 7 7 ; H e w i n g s

& R o m a n o s , 1 9 8 1 ; J e n s e n & W e s t , 1 9 8 0 ; W e s t , 1 9 8 2 ) . A s X u a n d M a d d e n

( 1 9 9 1 ) s t a t e d , n o t a l l e l e m e n t s w i l l s i g n i f i c a n t l y a f f e c t t h e w h o l e s y s t e m .

T h e r e f o r e , t h o s e s t u d i e s o f i m p o r t a n t f e a t u r e s a r e j u s t i f i e d .

O t h e r p r o p e r t i e s s u c h a s s t a b i l i t y a n d p r e d i c t a b i l i t y a r e n e g l e c t e d .

E v e n t h o u g h m a n y a n a l y s t s s t u d i e d t h e s t a b i l i t y o f t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s o r

m u l t i p l i e r s o f a r e g i o n o r n a t i o n i n r e l a t i o n t o t h e t i m e d i m e n s i o n ( f o r

e x a m p l e B e y e r s 1 9 7 2 ; C o n w a y 1 9 7 5 , 1 9 7 7 ; C a r t e r 1 9 7 0 ; F e l d m a n , M c C l a i n

& P a l m e r , 1 9 8 7 ) , s o m e a n a l y s t s p a i d l e s s a t t e n t i o n t o s t a b i l i t y o n s p a t i a l

d i m e n s i o n .

M a n y a n a l y s t s f o c u s e d o n t h e s t p d y o f e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e , s e e k i n g

t h e s i m i l a r i t i e s a n d c o m m o n p a t t e r n s o f e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e o v e r s p a c e

a n d o v e r t i m e ( f o r e x a m p l e C h e n e r y & W a t a n a b e , 1 9 5 8 ; C h e n e r y &

T a y l o r , 1 9 6 8 ; K u z n e t , 1 9 5 7 ; J e n s e n , W e s t & H e w i n g s , 1 9 8 8 ; J e n s e n , W e s t ,

H e w i n g s & S o n i s , 1 9 8 8 ; S y r q u i n , 1 9 8 8 ) .

H o w e v e r , t h e r e i s l i t t l e a t t e m p t t o s t u d y e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e i n a

c o m p r e h e n s i v e w a y . M o s t a p p r o a c h e s u s e a s i n g l e a n a l y t i c a l t o o l r a t h e r

t h a n s e v e r a l a n a l y t i c a l t o o l s s i m u l t a n e o u s l y t o m e a s u r e e c o n o m i c

s t r u c t u r e . S o n i s , H e w i n g s a n d J e n s e n , ( 1 9 9 1 ) s u g g e s t e d u s i n g s e v e r a l

m e t h o d s t o d e f i n e e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e , b u t e m p i r i c a l w o r k s t i l l n e e d s t o

b e d o n e . T h e a p p r o a c h t h a t u s e s a s e t o f a n a l y t i c a l t o o l s t o m e a s u r e

p r e d i c t a b i l i t y , s t a b i l i t y a n d i m p o r t a n c e w i l l a l l o w a n a l y s t s t o m o r e

c o m p r e h e n s i v e l y u n d e r s t a n d e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e .

J e n s e n a n d h i s a s s o c i a t e s , ( 1 9 8 8 , 1 9 9 1 ) i n d i c a t e d t h a t e c o n o m i c

s t r u c t u r e e x h i b i t s a c o m m o n p a t t e m . T h i s c o m m o n p a t t e m c o n t a i n s

p r e d i c t a b l e , i m p o r t a n t a n d s t a b l e c o m p o n e n t s . J e n s e n et a l . ( 1 9 8 8 , 1 9 9 1 )

o n l y d i s c u s s e s t h e p r e d i c t a b l e c o m p o n e n t o f r e g i o n a l e c o n o m i c s t m c t u r e .

V a n d e r W e s t h u i z e n , ( 1 9 9 2 ) c o n t i n u e s t h e i r a p p r o a c h b y u n c o v e r i n g

w h e t h e r t h e p r e d i c t a b l e c o m p o n e n t s a r e a l s o i m p o r t a n t a n d s t a b l e .

H o w e v e r , h i s s t u d y i s l i m i t e d b y t h e n u m b e r o f f u n c t i o n a l f o r m s a n d

a n a l y t i c a l t o o l s t h a t h e u s e d . O t h e r a n a l y t i c a l t o o l s s u c h a s f i e l d o f

i n f l u e n c e a r e r e q u i r e d t o e x a m i n e t h e c o n s i s t e n c y o f s u c h c o m m o n

p a t t e m s . T h i s a p p r o a c h i s u s e d i n t h e c u r r e n t s t u d y .

4 4 4

A n Exper iment o f Sma l l Region Input-Output Mode l

4 . G E N E R A L D E S C R I P T I O N O F K A B U P A T E N H U L U

S U N G A I T E N G A H

K a b u p a t e n H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h i s o n e o f n i n e r e g e n c i e s a n d o n e

m u n i c i p a l i t y i n S o u t h K a l i m a n t a n . I n 1 9 9 5 , t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f S q u t h

K a l i m a n t a n w a s 2 9 0 0 4 0 0 . I t s e c o n o m y o f t h i s r e g i o n v a r i e s , w i t h s l i g h t

r e l i a n c e o n p r i m a r y s e c t o r s s u c h a s a g r i c u l t u r e a n d m i n i n g . T h e s e t w o

s e c t o r s c o n t r i b u t e a p p r o x i m a t e l y 3 1 p e r c e n t : 2 4 . 2 p e r c e n t f o r a g r i c u l t u r e

a n d 6 . 8 p e r c e n t f o r m i n i n g . H o w e v e r , t h e m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r s h a v e

b e c o m e m o r e i m p o r t a n t i n r e c e n t y e a r s c o n t r i b u t i n g 2 0 p e r c e n t o f g r o s s

r e g i o n a l d o m e s t i c p r o d u c t . T h e m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r s a r e d o m i n a t e d b y

t i m b e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g s u c h a s p l y w o o d a n d c r u m b r u b b e r

m a n u f a c t u r i n g . H o w e v e r , t h e t i m b e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g r e l i e s h e a v i l y o n

i m p o r t e d r a w m a t e r i a l b e c a u s e S o u t h

K a l i m a n t a n ' s f o r e s t w a s d e p l e t e d i n t h e 1 9 8 0 s . T h e d e p l e t i o n w a s

t h e r e s u l t o f e x t e n s i v e c u t t i n g f o r s u p p l y i n g t h e t i m b e r i n d u s t r y w i t h o u t

c o n c o m i t a n t r e p l a n t i n g . H o p e f u l l y , t h e n e x t d e c a d e w i l l s e e a n i n c r e a s e

i n t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f t h e r a w m a t e r i a l d u e t o r e f o r e s t a t i o n i n t h e e a r l y

1 9 9 0 s . O t h e r i m p o r t a n t m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n t h i s a r e a i s r u b b e r

m a n u f a c t u r i n g s u c h a s s m o k e d s h e e t r u b b e r a n d r e m i l l e d r u b b e r .

I n 1 9 9 5 , t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h w a s 2 2 9 2 7 3 . T h e

p o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t y w a s 1 5 6 p e o p l e p e r s q u a r e k i l o m e t r e s . T h e a g e

s t r u c t u r e o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n w a s d o m i n a t e d b y t h e y o u n g . O n t h e o n e

h a n d , t h i s i s b e n e f i c i a l b e c a u s e m o s t o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n i s i n t h e

p r o d u c t i v e a g e r a n g e . O n t h e o t h e r h a n d , i t i s d i s a d v a n t a g e f o r t h e

c o m m u n i t y u n l e s s t h e l o c a l g o v e r n m e n t c a n c r e a t e e m p l o y m e n t f o r

y o u n g p e o p l e .

T a b l e 1 C o m p o s i t i o n o f Population by Age G r o u p (Percent)

H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h , 1996

Age Group Male Female Total 0-9 21.97 20.73 21.37

10-19 22.47 21.97 21.13 20-49 41.11 44.13 42.75 50+ 14.45 14.97 14.75

Total 100 100 100 Source: S t a t i s t i c s O f f i c e , S o c i a l a n d E c o n o m i c S u r v e y 1 9 9 6 .

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5. A N O V E R V I E W O F T H E F E S A P P R O A C H

T h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h i n p u t - o u t p u t t a b l e s u s e s t h e F E S

a p p r o a c h . I t s a p p l i c a t i o n a s o u t l i n e d i n I m a n s y a h ( 2 0 0 0 ) s u g g e s t s t h a t t h e

F E S a p p r o a c h i s r e l a t i v e l y c o s t - e f f e c t i v e w i t h a c c e p t a b l e a c c u r a c y i n a

h o l i s t i c s e n s e . T h e F E S a p p r o a c h i s u s e d f o r t h e f i r s t a p p r o x i m a t i o n o f t h e

t a b l e s . H o w e v e r , t h e a n a l y s t c a n i n t e r v e n e a t a n y s t e p t o i m p r o v e t h e

a c c u r a c y o f t h e t a b l e s i f a n y r e l i a b l e d a t a a r e a v a i l a b l e . I m a n s y a h ( 2 0 0 0 )

o u t l i n e d a n e f f i c i e n t m e t h o d f o r c o n s t r u c t i n g r e g i o n a l i n p u t - o u t p u t t a b l e

i n I n d o n e s i a u s i n g t h e F E S a p p r o a c h .

5 . 1 . S o u r c e s o f D a t a

T h e s e c o n d a r y d a t a f o r c o n s t r u c t i n g a n i n p u t - o u t p u t m o d e l f o r H u l u

S u n g a i T e n g a h a r e a v a i l a b l e a t t h e s u b - p r o v i n c e l e v e l i n m o s t s e c t o r s .

C e n t r a l B u r e a u o f S t a t i s t i c s ( C B S ) , w i t h i t s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f f i c e a t e v e r y

g o v e r n m e n t l e v e l , c o n d u c t s s u r v e y s o f t h e i n d u s t r i a l c o s t s t r u c t u r e o f

l a r g e a n d m e d i u m e n t e r p r i s e s a t t h e p r o v i n c e l e v e l e v e r y y e a r . T h e

d e t a i l e d l o c a t i o n o f t h e a g g r e g a t e i n d u s t r y c a n b e o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e C B S .

T h e r e f o r e , t h e s e d a t a c a n b e u s e d t o c o n s t r u c t c o s t s t r u c t u r e s a t t h e s u b -

p r o v i n c e l e v e l . I n a d d i t i o n , a l m o s t e v e r y g o v e r n m e n t o f f i c e o f p r i m a r y

s e c t o r s i n e v e r y s u b - p r o v i n c e s u c h a s a g r i c u l t u r e , f i s h e r y a n d l i v e s t o c k ,

c o l l e c t c o s t s t r u c t u r e d a t a o n a y e a r l y b a s i s . H e n c e , t h e s e d a t a c a n b e u s e d

f o r t h e p r i m a r y s e c t o r s . C o n s u m p t i o n p a t t e m s o f h o u s e h o l d s c a n b e

o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e S t a t i s t i c s O f f i c e i n e v e r y s u b - p r o v i n c e t h a t c o n d u c t s

s u r v e y s o f p e o p l e w e l f a r e i n d i c a t o r s . L o c a l g o v e r n m e n t e x p e n d i t u r e c a n

b e o b t a i n e d f r o m g o v e r n m e n t b u d g e t a n d r e v e n u e .

5.2. T h e C o n s t r u c t i o n o f I n p u t - O u t p u t T a b l e

T h e p r o c e d u r e s t o c o n s t r u c t H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h I n p u t - O u t p u t T a b l e

e m p l o y s t h e s e q u e n c e o u t l i n e d i n t h e A p p e n d i x 1 .

T h e s e q u e n c e o f t h e H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h I n p u t - O u t p u t T a b l e s

c o n s t m c t i o n i s a s f o l l o w s ' :

S t e p 1 c a l c u l a t e s t h e t r a n s a c t i o n c e l l s u s i n g t h e r e s u l t o f a r e g r e s s i o n

e s t i m a t i o n . T h e r e s u l t s o f t h e e s t i m a t i o n a r e s e n t t o s t e p 7 .

1 T h i s sequence begins at step 7 of general procedures i n A p p e n d i x 1 as step 1 because

tbe p r o c e d u r e u s e s tbe avai lable prototype table.

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A n Exper iment of Sma l l Region Input-Output Mode l

S t e p 2 c h e c k s t h e s t a b i l i t y o f t h e u n p r e d i c t a b l e c e l l s . T h e

u n p r e d i c t a b l e c e l l s t h a t a r e b e l o w t h e t h r e s h o l d i n s t e p 2 i d e n t i f y t h e

s t a b i l i t y o f t h e s e c e l l s . T h e m e a s u r e t o i d e n t i f y t h e s t a b l e c e l l s i s t h e

c o e f f i c i e n t s o f v a r i a t i o n ( C V ) . T o m a k e s t e p 2 c o n s i s t e n t w i t h s t e p 1 , t h e

c o e f f i c i e n t s ' f o r m a t i s c o n v e r t e d i n t o a t r a n s a c t i o n f o r m a t b y m u l t i p l y i n g

t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s w i t h t h e t o t a l s e c t o r a l g r o s s o u t p u t o f r e s p e c t i v e c o l u m n s

f o r t h e H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h . T h e r e s u l t s o f t h e e s t i m a t i o n a r e u s e d i n

s t e p 7 .

S t e p 3 i d e n t i f i e s t h e m o s t i m p o r t a n t c e l l s t h a t c a n n o t b e e s t i m a t e d

b y p r e d i c t a b l e a n d s t a b l e p r o p e r t i e s . T h i s s t e p i s c r u c i a l f o r t h e f i n a l

a c c u r a c y o f t h e t a b l e . I d e n t i f i c a t i o n i n t h i s s t e p l e a d s t o i m p r o v i n g t h e

a c c u r a c y b e c a u s e t h e i d e n t i f i e d i m p o r t a n t c e l l s u s e s u p e r i o r d a t a . A t t h i s

s t e p , s u p e r i o r d a t a w i l l b e i n s e r t e d a s m o s t s u p e r i o r d a t a a r e a v a i l a b l e .

M o s t i m p o r t a n t s e c t o r s a r e p r i m a r y a n d s o m e s e c o n d a r y s e c t o r s . T h e

u n i m p o r t a n t c e l l s c a n u s e a l e s s a c c u r a t e e s t i m a t i o n b y m e a n s o t h e r t h a n

s u p e r i o r d a t a b e c a u s e t h e c e l l s a r e r e l a t i v e l y u n i m p o r t a n t t o t h e w h o l e

s y s t e m . T h e r e f o r e , t h e s e u n s t a b l e a n d u n p r e d i c t a b l e c e l l s w i l l b e c h e c k e d

t o d e t e r m i n e w h e t h e r t h e s e c e l l s a r e i m p o r t a n t .

S e n s i t i v i t y a n a l y s i s i s u s e d b y m e a s u r i n g f r o m t h e t o p 2 5 p e r c e n t o f

c e l l s w h i c h a r e t o b e c o n s i d e r e d a s t h e m o s t i m p o r t a n t c e l l s . T h e

i d e n t i f i e d i m p o r t a n t c e l l s g o t o s t e p 6 f o r t h e c o l l e c t i o n o f s u p e r i o r d a t a .

T h e e s t i m a t i o n o f i d e n t i f i e d u n i m p o r t a n t c e l l s u s e s a v e r a g e c o e f f i c i e n t s o f

r e g i o n a l i n p u t - o u t p u t t a b l e s . T h e c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e t h e n c o n v e r t e d i n t o

t r a n s a c t i o n s f o r m a t b y m u l t i p l y i n g t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s w i t h t h e t o t a l s e c t o r a l

g r o s s o u t p u t f r o m t h e r e s p e c t i v e c o l u m n o f t h e H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h .

S t e p 6 c o l l e c t s s u p e r i o r d a t a f o r i n t e r m e d i a t e c e l l s . T h e s u p e r i o r d a t a

i s n e e d e d t o f i l l t h e i d e n t i f i e d i m p o r t a n t c e l l s t h a t c a n n o t b e e s t i m a t e d

u s i n g t h e F E S a p p r o a c h . A t t h i s s t e p , m o s t s e c o n d a r y d a t a f r o m S t a t i s t i c a l

O f f i c e a r e a v a i l a b l e . T h e s e d a t a g o t o s t e p 7 t o b e s u p p l e m e n t e d w i t h

o t h e r s d a t a f o r c o n s t r u c t i n g i n t e r m e d i a t e t r a n s a c t i o n c e l l s .

S t e p 7 c o m b i n e s t h e r e s u l t s o f s t e p s 2 , 3 , 5 , a n d 6 t o c o n s t r u c t

p r o t o t y p e i n t e r m e d i a t e t r a n s a c t i o n c e l l s .

S t e p 8 c o l l e c t s s u p e r i o r d a t a f o r f i n a l d e m a n d s a n d p r i m a r y i n p u t s .

T h i s f i n a l d e m a n d , e s p e c i a l l y h o u s e h o l d c o n s u m p t i o n , m u s t b e e s t i m a t e d

a s a c c u r a t e l y a s p o s s i b l e . H o u s e h o l d c o n s u m p t i o n p a t t e m c a n b e

e s t i m a t e d u s i n g s o c i a l e c o n o m i c s u r v e y s o n a y e a r l y b a s i s . G o v e r n m e n t

4 4 7

ImansL xih

consumption patterns is estimated using government budgets of the

H u l u Sungai Tengah Regency-

Capital formation is one of the most difficult to estimate. The Office

of the Department of Trade and Industry can provide some data that can

be used for estimating capital formation The representati\'c office of the

Bank of Indonesia (the Central Bank) also publishes data that can be used

to estimate the capital formation by sector. A l l these data from different

sources can be used to ensure consistency. The change of stocks can be

treated as a residual.

Exports and imports of food commodities are estimated by using

balance sheets of food commodities published by local go\ cmmcnts on

an annual basis. If it is not available, the gap and surplus between local

production and local consumption is considered imports and exports. For

other sectors, some data from the Office of the Department of Trade and

Industry are also available for estimating exports. Some publication data

from the representative office of the Bank of Indonesia (the Central Bank)

contains export data by sectors.

For the primary input quadrant, most sectors have labour

expenditure data, therefore, estimating primary inputs is relatively

easier. Other value added is treated as residual.

Step 9 combines the results of steps 7 and 8 . This step derives the

initial prototype transaction table.

Step 10 reconciles the prototype transaction table. In this step,

reconciliation and checks are necessary for consistenc}' because the table

developed in the previous step is very coarse. The process involves

balancing the column and row sums and using a modified R A S to

reconcile other minor differences. This step produces a final prototype

transaction table.

Step 11 performs a sensitivity analysis to identify the most sonsitiw

cells in the prototype table. This step carries out a sensitivity analysis to

identify the most significant cells affecting the multipliers in the table.

This step involves the scrutiny of the structure and features of the

regional economy for H u l u Sungai Tengah. If the result differs

substantially from the analysts' expectations, in other words, if there is a

suspicion of a significant error in some important cells, the following step

must be carried out.

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A n Exper iment of Sma l l Region Input-Output M o d e l

I n s t e p 1 2 , t h e i n s e r t i o n o f a d d i t i o n a l s u p e r i o r d a t a i s c a r r i e d o u t t o

e n s u r e a c c u r a c y i f t h e p r e v i o u s s t e p i n d i c a t e s a s i g n i f i c a n t e r r o r . I n t h i s

s t e p , f i n a l c h e c k i n g , b a l a n c i n g a n d a d j u s t m e n t a r e c a r r i e d o u t t o

c o m p l e t e t h e f i n a l t a b l e . 1

S t e p 1 3 c a l c u l a t e s t h e i n v e r s e m a t r i c e s a n d m u l t i p l i e r s . T h e o u t p u t

i n c o m e a n d e m p l o y m e n t m u l t i p l i e r s a r e c a l c u l a t e d f o r t h e f i n a l

t r a n s a c t i o n t a b l e . j

T h e i n p u t - o u t p u t t a b l e s o f t h e H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h a r e p r e s e n t e d i n

t h e A p p e n d i x 3 , a n d s e c t o r a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n i s i n A p p e n d i x 2 .

5 . 3 . M o d e l V a l i d a t i o n

G e n e r a l l y , t h e v a l i d a t i o n p r o c e s s i s t o e v a l u a t e t h e m o d e l . I n a h o l i s t i c

s e n s e , t h e e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e a n d s i z e o f t h e H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h i n p u t -

o u t p u t t a b l e r e f l e c t s t h e r e a l s i t u a t i o n o f r e g i o n a l e c o n o m y . I n a d d i t i o n ,

H u l u S v m g a i T e n g a h i n p u t - o u t p u t t a b l e r e p r e s e n t s t h e s i z e a n d s t r u c t u r e

o f H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h e c o n o m y . J e n s e n ( 1 9 8 0 ) s t a t e d t h a t t h e r e a r e t w o

t y p e s o f a c c u r a c c y , t y p e A a n d t y p e B a c c u r a c y . T y p e A a c c u r a c y

e m p h a s i z e s t h e t a b l e a c c u r a c y . T h i s t y p e A a c c u r a c y r e f l e c t s t h e

a p p r o x i m a t i o n o f d e r i v e d i n p u t - o u t p u t t a b l e t o t l i e u n k n o w n " t r u e "

t a b l e . O n t h e o t h e r h a n d , t y p e B a c c u r a c y i s m o d e l a c c u r a c y , w h i c h

r e p r e s e n t s t h e o p e r a t i o n a l m o d e l o f d e r i v e d i n p u t - o u t p u t t o t h e e c o n o m y

i n q u e s t i o n . W i t h r e g a r d t o m o d e l v a l i d a t i o n , t y p e A c a n n o t b e o b t a i n e d

b e c a u s e t h e " t r u e " t a b l e i s n o t a v a i l a b l e f o r c o m p a r i s o n . T h e r e f o r e , t y p e B

a c c u r a c y i s t h e m o s t f e a s i b l e t o o b t a i n .

J e n s e n ( 1 9 8 0 ) a r g u e d t h a t t h e m o s t e f f e c t i v e t e s t o f t a b l e a c c u r a c y i s

t h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h a t a b l e r e p r e s e n t s t h e m a i n f e a t u r e s o f t h e e c o n o m y i n

q u e s t i o n . T h i s i m p l i e s t h a t a n a l y s t s h o u l d f o c u s e o n t h e m o r e s i g n i f i c a n t

i n t e r a c t i o n s o r t h e l a r g e r c o e f f i c i e n t s r a t h e r t h a n t h e a n a l y t i c a l

i n s i g n i f i c a n t c e l l s o f t h e t a b l e .

I n a h o l i s t i c s e n s e , H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h i n p u t o u t p u t t a b l e s r e f l e c t

t h e s i z e a n d s t r u c t u r e o f t h e s e e c o n o m i e s w h i c h c a p t u r e t h e m a i n

f e a t u r e s i t s r e g i o n a l e c o n o m i e s .

4 4 9

Imansyah

6. T H E S I Z E A N D S T R U C T U R E O F T H E H U L U S U N G A I

T E N G A H I N P U T - O U T P U T T A B L E

6.1. The Structure of Total Gross Output and Final Demand

T h e s t r u c t u r e o f t o t a l g r o s s o u t p u t i s d o m i n a t e d b y o t h e r v a l u e a d d e d .

O t h e r v a l u e a d d e d c o n t r i b u t e d 4 6 . 2 8 p e r c e n t o f H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h ' s

t o t a l g r o s s o u t p u t . I n t e r m e d i a t e i n p u t s a c c o u n t e d f o r 2 6 . 7 3 p e r c e n t o f t h e

t o t a l g r o s s o u t p u t w h i l e i m p o r t s c o n t r i b u t e d o n l y 6 . 9 4 p e r c e n t o f t h e

t o t a l g r o s s o u t p u t . T h e h i g h l o c a l i n p u t p u r c h a s e s a n d t h e l o w i m p o r t s

f o r t h i s r e g i o n i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r s h a v e n o t b e e n f u l l y

d e v e l o p e d b e c a u s e t h e m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r s c o n s i s t o f a f e w s e c t o r s t h a t

p r o c e s s l o c a l r e s o u r c e s , s u c h a s r u b b e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g . I n o t h e r w o r d s ,

t h e o t h e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r s c o m p r i s e m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r t h a t u s e s

s i m p l e t e c h n o l o g y a n d p r o d u c e r e s o u r c e - b a s e d , l e s s d i v e r s i f i e d

m a n u f a c t u r i n g . M o s t o f t h e s e m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r s u s e l o c a l i n p u t s .

6.2. The Sectoral Distribution

I n H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h , s e r v i c e s , t r a d e , o t h e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g , a n d p a d d y

s e c t o r s d o m i n a t e d t h e s e c t o r a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t o t a l g r o s s o u t p u t . T h e s e

f o u r s e c t o r s c o n t r i b u t e d 5 0 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l g r o s s o u t p u t . T h e s e r v i c e s

s e c t o r a l o n e c o n t r i b u t e d 1 5 . 6 p e r c e n t . R u b b e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g w a s t h e

m a j o r m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r i n H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h . O t h e r s e c t o r s

c o n t r i b u t e d l e s s t h a n 1 0 p e r c e n t . A d e t a i l e d d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e s e c t o r a l

d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t o t a l g r o s s o u t p u t , v a l u e a d d e d , e x p o r t s a n d i m p o r t s i s

s h o w n i n Figure 2.

4 5 0

A n Exper iment ot" Sma l l Region Input-Output Mode l

F i g u r e 2 T h e S t r u c t u r e of G r o s s Output, H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h 1995

( R p ' 0 0 0 0 0 0 )

Gov. E x p Cap . Form Ex-Imp

F i g u r e 3

T h e C o m p o s i t i o n of F i n a l D e m a n d , H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h 1995

Imports 7 % Wages

Intermediate Inputs 2 7 %

other Value Added 4 6 %

451

Imansyah

T h e v a l u e a d d e d w a s d i s t r i b u t e d e v e n l y , h o w e v e r , f o u r s e c t o r s h a d m o r e

t h a n 1 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e i r s h a r e i n v a l u e a d d e d . T h e s e f o u r s e c t o r s , n a m e l y

s e r v i c e s , t r a d e , p a d d y a n d o t h e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g , c o n t r i b u t e d 5 7 . 2 p e r c e n t .

E x p o r t s w e r e d o m i n a t e d b y p a d d y , o t h e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g , a n d

l i v e s t o c k . O t h e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g w a s d o m i n a t e d b y r u b b e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g

w h i c h i s e x p o r t e d t o o t h e r c o i m t r i e s . P a d d y a n d l i v e s t o c k a r e e x p o r t e d t o

o t h e r r e g e n c i e s .

O t h e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g w a s t h e s e c t o r w i t h t h e h i g h e s t i m p o r t o f

i n p u t s i n H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h . L i v e s t o c k w a s t h e s e c o n d l a r g e s t s e c t o r t o

i m p o r t e d i n p u t s . H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h d o e s n o t h a v e a l i v e s t o c k f e e d

m i l l , t h e r e f o r e , m o s t l i v e s t o c k f e e d i s i m p o r t e d f r o m o u t s i d e t h e

p r o v i n c e . F i n a n c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n a n d r e n t i s t h e t h i r d s e c t o r w i t h t h e h i g h e s t

i m p o r t e d i n p u t s .

T h e s e r v i c e s , p a d d y , a n d o t h e r a g r i c u l t u r e s e c t o r s h o l d t h e h i g h e s t

s h a r e o f s e c t o r a l d i s t r i b u t i o n i n w a g e s a n d s a l a r i e s . T h e e m p l o y m e n t

d i s t r i b u t i o n b y s e c t o r a l s o r e v e a l e d t h a t t h e s e r v i c e s , p a d d y a n d o t h e r

a g r i c u l t u r e s e c t o r s p r o v i d e t h e h i g h e s t e m p l o y m e n t . A d e t a i l e d

d e s c r i p t i o n o f e m p l o y m e n t c a n b e f o u n d i n t h e A p p e n d i x 4 .

6 3 . The Sectoral Purchasing Distribution

T a b l e 2 p r e s e n t s t h e r e l a t i v e i m p o r t a n c e o f l o c a l i n t e r i n d u s t r y l i n k a g e s .

T h i s t a b l e s h o w s t h a t t h e s e c t o r s w i t h t h e h i g h e s t l o c a l p u r c h a s e s a r e

f o o d m a n u f a c t u r i n g a n d o t h e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g . F o c x l m a n u f a c t u r i n g

p u r c h a s e d 6 4 . 2 1 p e r c e n t o f i t s i n p u t s f r o m t h e l o c a l e c o n o m y , w h i c h

t e n d s t o b o o s t t h e l o c a l e c o n o m y . O t h e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g b u y s

a p p r o x i m a t e l y 5 6 . 1 1 p e r c e n t o f i t s i n p u t s f r o m l o c a l i n d u s t r i e s . O t h e r

m a n u f a c t u r i n g i s d o m i n a t e d b y r u b b e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g . B a l a s s a ( 1 9 7 9 )

a n d L e a r n e r ( 1 9 8 4 ) ( c i t e d b y S y r q u i n & C h e n e r y , 1 9 9 2 ) s u g g e s t t h a t t h e

p a t t e m o f . d e v e l o p m e n t t e n d s t o g o t h r o u g h " s t a g e s o f c o m p a r a t i v e

a d v a n t a g e " . T h i s p a t t e m m o v e s f r o m r e s o u r c e - i n t e n s i v e c o m m o d i t i e s t o

l a b o u r - i n t e n s i v e a n d t h e n t o m o r e c a p i t a l a n d s k i l l e d i n t e n s i v e g o o d s .

R u b b e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g c a n b e c o n s i d e r e d a s r e s o u r c e - i n t e n s i v e

c o m m o d i t i e s . R u b b e r i s o n e o f t h e m a j o r a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t s i n H u l u

S u n g a i T e n g a h . T h e r e s u l t s s u g g e s t t h a t H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h w a s o n t h e

4 5 2

A n Exper iment of Smal l Region Input-Output M o d e l

f i r s t s t e p o f t h e d e v e l o p m e n t p a t t e m i n 1 9 9 5 a c c o r d i n g t o B a l a s s a a n d

L e a m e r .

H o w e v e r , f o o d m a n u f a c t u r i n g , s e r v i c e s , a n d o t h e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g

s e c t o r a r e s t i l l t h e h i g h e s t f o r l o c a l p u r c h a s e s i n c l u d i n g p a y m e n t s t o

h o u s e h o l d s . T h i s m e a n s t h a t t h e s e s e c t o r s a r e v e r y i m p o r t a n t t o t h e l o c a l

e c o n o m y w i t h r e s p e c t t o l o c a l i n p u t s a n d l a b o u r . O n t h e o t h e r h a n d ,

s e c t o r 2 1 ( t h e s e r v i c e s e c t o r ) w a s r a n k e d f i r s t f o r p a y m e n t s t o t h e

h o u s e h o l d s ( s e e T a b l e 2 c o l u m n 7 ) . T h e o t h e r a g r i c u l t u r e s e c t o r w a s

r a n k e d s e c o n d i n H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h . |

T h i s m e a n s t h a t t h e s e s e c t o r s w e r e t h e m a j o r s o u r c e o f i n c o m e f o r

l o c a l p e o p l e . T h e s e r e s u l t s w e r e s i m i l a r t o t h e p h e n o m e n a i n B a n j a r m a s i n

( I m a n s y a h , W e s t a n d J e n s e n , 2 0 0 0 ) c o n f i r m e d t h a t t h e s e t w o r e g i o n s ,

B a n j a r m a s i n a n d H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h h a d y e t t o b e g i n t h e i r

i n d u s t r i a l i s a t i o n . H o w e v e r , B a n j a r m a s i n ' s e c o n o m y w a s s l i g h t l y m o r e

a d v a n c e t h a n t h e H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h e c o n o m y . T h e e x p e n d i t u r e o f

p a y m e n t t o t h e h o u s e h o l d s s e c t o r r a n g e d f r o m 9 . 1 2 p e r c e n t t o 4 8 . 3 6 p e r

c e n t .

T a b l e 2 s h o w s u t i l i t i e s a s t h e s e c t o r w i t h t h e h i g h e s t i m p o r t s . T h i s

s e c t o r r e c e i v e d m o s t o f i t s i n p u t s s u c h a s o i l f r o m o u t s i d e t h e s u b -

p r o v i n c e . T h e s e c o n d h i g h e s t s e c t o r u s i n g i m p o r t e d i n p u t s w a s t h e

l i v e s t o c k s e c t o r f o l l o w e d b y t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n s e c t o r . T h e l i v e s t o c k s e c t o r

d e p e n d s o n i m p o r t e d i n p u t s , e s p e c i a l l y f o r l i v e s t o c k f e e d .

6.4. L i n k a g e A n a l y s i s , M u l t i p l i e r s A n a l y s i s , a n d E l a s t i c i t y A n a l y s i s

6 . 4 . 1 . L i n k a g e A n a l y s i s

R a s m u s s e n ( 1 9 5 6 ) a n d H i r s c h m a n ( 1 9 5 8 ) p r o p o s e d t h a t l i n k a g e a n a l y s i s

c a n b e u s e d t o d e t e r m i n e d e v e l o p m e n t s t r a t e g i e s . T h e y u s e d b a c k w a r d

a n d f o r w a r d l i n k a g e s t o d e t e r m i n e s e c t o r a l p r i o r i t i e s . H o w e v e r , m a n y

r e s e a r c h e s c r i t i c i s e t h i s a p p r o a c h b e c a u s e i t h a s s o m e d r a w b a c k s .

H o w e v e r , t h i s a n a l y s i s u s e d w i t h o t h e r f o r m s o f a n a l y s i s h a s s o m e

b e n e f i t .

T h e s e c t o r s w i t h t h e h i g h e s t o u t p u t b a c k w a r d l i n k a g e s i n H u l u

S u n g a i T e n g a h a r e s e c t o r 1 0 ( f o o d m a n u f a c t u r i n g ) a n d 1 3 ( o t h e r

m a n u f a c t u r i n g ) . R u b b e r i s o n e o f m a j o r a g r i c u l t u r e p r o d u c t s i n H u l u

S i m g a i T e n g a h . T h i s a b u n d a n c e o f r u b b e r d r i v e s r u b b e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g

4 5 3

Imansyah

t o d o m i n a t e t h e o t h e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r m a k i n g i t s b a c k w a r d l i n k a g e

v e r y h i g h .

T h e s e c t o r w i t h t h e h i g h e s t i n c o m e b a c k w a r d l i n k a g e s a r e f o o d

m a n u f a c t u r i n g f o l l o w e d b y o t h e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g . T h i s i n d i c a t e s t h a t

t h e s e s e c t o r s g e n e r a t e i n c o m e f o r t h e i r s u p p l i e r o f i n p u t s . O t h e r s e c t o r s ,

s u c h a s t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a n d c o m m u n i c a t i o n , a n d s e r v i c e s a l s o s h o w h i g h

i n c o m e b a c k w a r d l i n k a g e s ( s e e T a b l e 3).

T h e s e c t o r w i t h t h e h i g h e s t e m p l o j m i e n t b a c k w a r d l i n k a g e i s o t h e r

m a n u f a c t u r i n g w i t h f o o d m a n u f a c t u r i n g t a k i n g s e c o n d p l a c e . O t h e r

s e c t o r s i n t h e t o p f i v e a r e m i n e r a l m a n u f a c t u r i n g , f o r e s t r y , a n d

t r a n s p o r t a t i o n .

T a b l e 2 E x p e n d i t u r e C o m p o s i t i o n o f H u l u S u n g a i

T e n g a h i n p u t - O u t p u t T a b l e , 1995

Rank Sector

Number Local

Purchase Sector

Number Local

Purchase* Sector

Number Payment to Household

Sector Number

Imports

1 10 64.21% 10 72.31% 21 47.82% 15 50.72% 2 13 56.11% 21 68.82% 3 36.67% 4 32.29% 3 18 47.04% 13 63.85% 1 31.89% 13 17.22% 4 19 41.86% 11 58.96% 11 29.09% 10 12.15% 5 16 37.24% 18 56.40% 8 25.68% 16 8.96% 6 15 36.47% 19 51.18% 16 12.63% 19 7.22% 7 4 31.65% 16 49.87% 6 11.73% 5 5.61% 8 11 29.87% 3 45.53% 5 11.71% 1 4.84% 9 21 21.00% 15 41.56% 17 11.04% 6 3.87% 10 20 20.21% 1 38.29% 20 9.88% 3 3.84% 11 17 17.66% 4 34.95% 2 9.42% 18 3.79% 12 5 9.12% 8 32.17% 18 9.35% 2 2.53% 13 6 9.05% 20 30.09% 19 9.32% 20 1.96% 14 3 8.86% 17 28.70% 10 8.10% 17 1.81%

N o t e : * i n c l u d i n g p a y m e n t t o t h e h o u s e h o l d .

T h e o v e r a l l p a t t e m o f s e c t o r r a n k i n g f o r o u t p u t , i n c o m e , a n d

e m p l o 3 7 m e n t b a c k w a r d l i n k a g e s i s s i m i l a r . T h e o n l y d i f f e r e n c e i s t h e f i r s t

a n d t h e s e c o n d r a n k p o s i t i o n .

T h e s e c t o r s w i t h t h e h i g h e s t o u t p u t f o r w a r d l i n k a g e s i n H u l u

S u n g a i T e n g a h a r e m i n e r a l m a n u f a c t u r i n g a n d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a n d

c o m m u n i c a t i o n . T h e o t h e r a g r i c u l t u r e , f i n a n c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n s a n d r e n t , a n d

r e s t a u r a n t s a n d h o t e l s s e c t o r s a r e a l s o a m o n g t h e t o p f i v e . T h e h i g h e s t

454

A n Exper iment of S m a l l Reg ion Input-Output M o d e l

i n c o m e f o r w a r d l i n k a g e i s m i n e r a l m a n u f a c t u r i n g f o l l o w e d b y

t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a n d c o m m u n i c a t i o n . T h e s e c t o r w i t h t h e h i g h e s t

e m p l o y m e n t f o r w a r d l i n k a g e i s s e c t o r 5 ( f o r e s t r y ) . T h i s s u g g e s t s t h a t

f o r e s t r y p r o v i d e s e m p l o y m e n t f o r i t s d o v m s t r e a m s e c t o r s . O t h e r s e c t o r s

a m o n g t h e t o p f i v e a r e m i n e r a l m a n u f a c t u r i n g , o t h e r f o o d c r o p s ,

r e s t a u r a n t s a n d h o t e l s a n d f i n a n c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n s a n d r e n t .

F i g u r e 4 Sectoral D i s t r i b u t i o n of Gross O u t p u t

Huiu Sungai Tengah input O u t p u t Table 1995 (Rp'OOOOOO)

AMOUNT GROSS OOTPDT <Rp I n m l l U o n )

I 2 2 4 5 6 7 e 9

10 11 12 12 14 15 16 17 I B 19 2 0 21

26920.0 224 0. 5

27602.0 16545.0

1 245.0 22648.0

0.0 1707.0

0.0 10105.0

6B1 . 0 0. 0

41926.0 0 .0

2742. 0 16096.0 47211.0 174B9.0 29572.0 22914.0 55926.0

10.6 0. 9 7 .7 4 . 6 0.4 6 . 2 0. 0 0 .5 0 .0 2 .6 0 .2 0 .0

11 . 7 0. 0 0 .6 5 .0

15 .6

•TOTAL AVERAGE MAXIMUM MISIMUM STD DEV

25B8B5.5 100.0 17069.6 55926.0

0. 0 17626 .7

4 5 5

Imansyah

F i g u r e 5 S e c t o r a l D i s t r i b u t i o n of Exports

H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h I n p u t Output T a b l e 1995 (Rp'OOOOOO) AMOUNT |t| EXEOBTS (Rp I n m l l l l o n j

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 B 9

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 IB 19 20 21

16166.6 0. 0

7566 .1 6665 .2

625.0 44 0 0 . J

0 .0 0 .0 0 .0

10.6 C. 0 0. 0

11599.2 0.0 0.0 0 .0 C. 0 0.0 0 .0 C . 0 0. 0

34 .2 0.0

1 6 . 1 14

1 9 0 0 0 0 0' 0

24 .5

0.0 0 .0 0. 0 0 . 0

TCTAL A'.'HHAi.lE r+AXIMUM MINIMUM

4 72 75.3 100.0 2 2 51 .2

U 1 6 0 . . t 0 . 0

4539 .7

F i g u r e 6 S e c t o r a l D i s t r i b u t i o n of I m p o r t s

H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h I n p u t Output T a b l e 1995 (Rp'OOOOOO) ISK'TTCR AMOUNT |»| IMPORTS (Rp I n r a l i l l c - n !

1 1665.f 7.6 • • • • 2 6 4 . 4 0 . 3 J 1060 . I 4 . 3 — 4 5343.2 21.4 e ^ ^ " 5 75.5 0.3 6 6 76 .6 3.5 7 u .0 0. 0 6 24.6 0 . 1 9 0 . 0 0 . 0

10 1227.6 4 .9 • • • • • 11 1.6 0.0 12 0.0 0.0 13 7216.3 29.0 14 0. 0 0 . 0 15 1 390.9 5.6 16 1620.6 6 .5 17 657.9 3.4 IB 66 2.3 2 .7 ^ ™ 19 2135.4 6.6 20 449.9 l . B ™ 21 0.0 0.0

TOTAL 24915.0 100.0 AVEPJWE 1166.4 MAXIMUM 7216.3 MINIMUM 0.0 STD DP.' 1951.5

4 5 6

A n Exper iment of Sma l l Reg ion Input-Output Mode l

F i g u r e 7 S e c t o r a l D i s t r i b u t i o n of V a l u e A d d e d

H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a b I n p u t Output T a b l e 1995 (Rp'OOOOOO) j sB - r r : -p . AMC-UUT \\\ V A L U E ADDED iRp m n u l l t e n ;

14 I 2

1 4 5 5 1 3 0 72

r, 1

14 Y 3 4

2 4 056 1 0 *

i 1 146 t 6 1 9 7 2 2 0 7

c 15 71 0

c 7 • 9

I C 2 3 6 0 0 0

u 2 t.

1 2 I J 11104 4 14 15 16 ? 7 i e 3 4 I

1 7 3 0 0 5 5 0 1 6 c l e 0 5 55 1 0 15 15050 .-' '-• 1 - 0 ' 2 0 2

: 0

T l T A l . 2 3 0 0 3 4 . 2 l O i . 0 AVERAGE 1 1 3 3 5 . : MAXIHITO 4 4 : 0 2 . • MINIMLTO s r r 2 E V 13 7 : - . . .•;

T a b l e 3 T b e T o p 10 Sectors witb t b e H i g h e s t B a c k w a r d L i n k a g e

H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a b I n p u t - O u t p u t T a b l e , 1995

Rank Output BL Sector No.

Income BL Sector No.

Employment BL Sector No.

1 10 10 13 2 13 13 10 3 18 19 11 4 19 21 5 5 16 18 19 6 15 16 18 7 4 15 3 8 11 11 15 9 21 20 16 10 20 17 4

N o t e : B L = B a c k w a r d L i n k a g e

457

Imansyah

T a b l e 4 77ie Top 10 Sectors with the H i g h e s t F o r w a r d L i n k a g e

H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h Input-Output Table, 1995

Rank Output FL Sector No.

Income FL Sector No.

Employment FL Sector No.

1 1 1 1 1 5

2 1 9 1 9 1 1

3 3 1 2

4 2 0 1 5 1 8

5 1 8 3 2 0

6 1 5 1 7 1 9

7 1 7 2 0 1 7

8 8 1 8 1 5

9 4 2 4

1 0 5 5 3

Note : F L = F o r w a r d L i n k a g e

6.4.2. M u l t i p l i e r A n a l y s i s I n t h i s s t u d y , t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f m u l t i p l i e r s u s e s a r e v i s e d d e f i n i t i o n

( W e s t a n d J e n s e n 1 9 8 0 ) . W e s t a n d J e n s e n ' s p a p e r s u g g e s t e d t h e r e v i s i o n

b e c a u s e o f i n c o n s i s t e n c i e s i n t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f c o n v e n t i o n a l

m u l t i p l i e r s . T h e i r p a p e r p r o v i d e d a r e d e f i n i t i o n o f i n p u t - o u t p u t

m u l t i p l i e r s t h a t i s c o n s i s t e n t f r o m o u t p u t t o i n c o m e a n d e m p l o y m e n t

m u l t i p l i e r s . H o w e v e r , t h e y p r e s e r v e d t h e e s s e n c e o f c o n v e n t i o n a l

m u l t i p l i e r s . T h e y a v o i d e d t h e t e r m s , direct a n d indirect, b e c a u s e t h e s e

t e r m s c o n f u s e d m e a n i n g .

T h e r e v i s e d t e r m s f o l l o w ' :

1 . T h e i n i t i a l e f f e c t s r e f e r t o t h e D o l l a r i n c r e a s e o f a d o l l a r i n s a l e s . T h i s i s

t h e s t i m u l u s .

2 . T h e f i r s t r o u n d e f f e c t r e f e r s t o t h e e f f e c t o f f i r s t r o u n d o f p u r c h a s e b y

t h e s e c t o r s u p p l y i n g t h e a d d i t i o n a l D o l l a r o u t p u t .

2 F o r detai l see W e s t a n d Jensen (1980).

4 5 8

A n Exper i tnent of S m a l l Reg ion Input-Output Mode l

3 . I n d u s t r i a l s u p p o r t e f f e c t r e f e r s t o s e c o n d a n d s u b s e q u e n t e f f e c t s a s

s u c c e s s i v e r o u n d s o f o u t p u t a r e n e e d e d t o i n c r e a s e t h e e c o n o m y d u e

t o f o l l o w i n g t h e f i r s t r o u n d i m p a c t s .

4 . C o n s u m p t i o n i n d u c e d e f f e c t i s d e f i n e d i n t h e c o n v e n t i o n a l w a y .

6.4.2.1. O u t p u t M u l t i p l i e r s T w o t y p e s o f o u t p u t m u l t i p l i e r s a r e c a l c u l a t e d . T h e t y p e I o u t p u t

m u l t i p l i e r o r s i m p l e o u t p u t m u l t i p l i e r i s c a l c u l a t e d f r o m t h e o p e n m o d e l

a n d e x c l u d e s c o n s u m p t i o n i n d u c e d e f f e c t s . T h e t y p e 1 1 o u t p u t m u l t i p l i e r

i n c l u d e s c o n s u m p t i o n i n d u c e d e f f e c t s a n d i s c a l c u l a t e d f r o m t h e c l o s e d

m o d e l w i t h r e s p j e c t t o t h e h o u s e h o l d s e c t o r .

T h e h i g h e s t t y p e I o u t p u t m u l t i p l i e r i s s e c t o r 1 0 ( f o o d

m a n u f a c t u r i n g ) f o l l o w e d b y s e c t o r 1 3 ( o t h e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g ) . T h i s t y p e I

o u t p u t m u l t i p l i e r o f f o o d m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n

o f t h e i n i t i a l , t h e f i r s t r o u n d e f f e c t , a n d t h e i n d u s t r i a l s u p p o r t e f f e c t f r o m

a l l s e c t o r s f o r e a c h o n e r u p i a h i n c r e a s e i n s a l e s o f o t h e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g

o u t p u t t o f i n a l d e m a n d . F o r e x a m p l e , a n i n c r e a s e o f o n e r u p i a h i n s a l e s t o

f i n a l d e m a n d o f f o o d m a n u f a c t u r i n g r e q u i r e s a n i n c r e a s e o f R p 2 . 2 7 f r o m

a l l s e c t o r s i n t h e l o c a l e c o n o m y i n c l u d i n g c o n s u m p t i o n i n d u c e d e f f e c t s .

T h e r e s u l t s s h o w t h a t f o o d m a n u f a c t u r i n g p r o v i d e s t h r e e - q u a r t e r o f t h e

i n i t i a l e f f e c t f o r t h e f i r s t r o u n d e f f e c t a n d i n d u s t r i a l s u p p o r t e f f e c t . T h i s

m e a n s t h a t t h i s s e c t o r h a s h i g h i n t e r a c t i o n w i t h o t h e r s e c t o r s i n t h e l o c a l

e c o n o m y .

T h e h i g h e s t t y p e I I o u t p u t m u l t i p l i e r s , w h i c h t a k e s i n t o a c c o u n t t h e

h o u s e h o l d s e c t o r , i s t h e f o o d m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r f o l l o w e d b y o t h e r

m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e c o n s u m p t i o n i n d u c e d e f f e c t s o f

f o o d m a n u f a c t u r i n g i s h i g h e r t h a n t h a t f o r o t h e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g .

4f

Imansyah

T a b l e 5 Output, I n c o m e a n d E m p l o y m e n t M u l t i p l i e i s

H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h Input-Output T a b l e 1995

Output Multipliers Income Multipliers Employment Multipliers Rank TYPEI TYPE II TYPEI TYPE II TYPE 1 TYPE II

Sector No. Sector No. Sector No. Sector No. Sector No. Sector No. 1 10 1.7858 10 2.2699 10 3.3233 10 4.2985 13 8.6886 20 13.4065 2 13 1.7255 21 2.2646 13 3.0851 13 3.9905 20 4.8521 13 11.4079 3 18 1.6897 13 2.1550 4 2.5593 4 3.3104 10 3.7789 10 4.9881 4 19 1.5932 19 2.0159 19 2.5205 19 3.2602 19 2.6675 19 4.5992 5 16 1.5502 18 2.0126 15 2.3286 15 3.0119 16 1.9572 16 3.0904 6 15 1.5044 11 1.9864 18 1.9195 18 2.4829 4 1.7405 21 2.6237 7 4 1.4928 16 1.9127 16 1.5955 16 2.0637 18 1.6047 18 2.2189 8 11 1.3805 3 1.8164 20 1.4305 20 1.8503 11 1.4163 4 2.0983 9 20 1.2833 15 1.7178 17 1.3509 17 1.7473 17 1.2967 17 1.8885 10 21 1.2805 1 1.6863 5 1.1590 5 1.4991 15 1.2067 11 1.6752

F i g u r e 8 Relative I m p o r t a n c e o f Initial, First, industrial, a n d C o n s u m p t i o n Fffects

f r o m a R p l i n c r e a s e of S e c t o r a l Sales to F i n a l D e m a n d H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a b i n p u t - O u t p u t T a b l e 1995

1 2 3 4 S 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

I I N I T I A L

I N D U S T R I A L

F I R S T

C O N S U M P T I O N I N D U C E D

460

A n Exper iment of Sma l l Region Input-Output Mode l

F i g u r e 8 p r o v i d e s i m p o r t a n t i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t t l i e r e l a t i v e i m p o r t a n c e o f

i n i t i a l , f i r s t r o u n d , i n d u s t r i a l s u p p o r t , a n d c o n s u m p t i o n i n d u c e d e f f e c t s .

T h e f o o d m a n u f a c t u r i n g a n d o t h e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r s s h o w a

r e l a t i v e l y t i i g h f i r s t r o u n d e f f e c t . T h i s i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e s e s e c t o r s h a v e a

l a r g e e f f e c t o n s e c t o r s f r o m w h i c h f o o d m a n u f a c t u r i n g a n d o t h e r

m a n u f a c t u r i n g p u r c h a s e t h e i r d i r e c t i n p u t s . T h e s e c t o r s w i t h t h e h i g h e s t

i n d u s t r i a l e f f e c t a r e l i v e s t o c k a n d c o n s t r u c t i o n . T h i s m e a n s t h a t t h e s e

s e c t o r s h a v e a h i g h i n t e r a c t i o n r a t e w i t h o t h e r s e c t o r s . H o w e v e r J t h e

s e r v i c e s , o t h e r a g r i c u l t u r e , a n d p a d d y s e c t o r s s h o w a r e l a t i v e l y h i g h

c o n s u m e r i n d u c e d e f f e c t . T h i s i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e s e s e c t o r s h a v e a h i g h

i n t e r a c t i o n w i t h t h e h o u s e h o l d s e c t o r . S e v e n s e c t o r s s h o w a c o n s u m p t i o n

i n d u c e d e f f e c t o f m o r e t h a n 2 0 p e r c e n t . T h i s m e a n s t h a t t h e s e s e c t o r s

h a v e a h i g h i n t e r a c t i o n w i t h t h e h o u s e h o l d s e c t o r .

6.4.2.2. I n c o m e M u l t i p l i e r s T h e s e c t o r w i t h t h e h i g h e s t t y p e I a n d t y p e I I i n c o m e m u l t i p l i e r s i s s e c t o r

1 0 ( f o o d m a n u f a c t u r i n g ) . T h e o t h e r s e c t o r s a m o n g t h e t o p f i v e a r e s e c t o r

1 3 ( o t h e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g ) , s e c t o r 4 ( l i v e s t o c k ) , s e c t o r 1 9 ( t r a n s p o r t a t i o n

a n d c o m m u n i c a t i o n ) , a n d s e c t o r 1 5 ( u t i l i t i e s ) .

T h e f o o d m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r r a n k s c o n s i s t e n t l y i n t h e f i r s t p l a c e

f o r o u t p u t m u l t i p l i e r s . T h i s i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h i s s e c t o r g e n e r a t e s i n c o m e

a n d o u t p u t . I t m e a n s t h a t f o o d m a n u f a c t u r i n g i s i m p o r t a n t f o r t h e H u l u

S u n g a i T e n g a h e c o n o m y .

6.4.23. E m p l o y m e n t M u l t i p l i e r s T h e s e c t o r w i t h t h e h i g h e s t t y p e I e m p l o y m e n t m u l t i p l i e r i s s e c t o r 1 3

( o t h e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g ) f o l l o w e d b y s e c t o r 2 0 ( f i n a n c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n s a n d

r e n t ) . T h i s i n d i c a t e s t h a t H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h ' s m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r h a s

a h i g h e r l a b o u r p r o d u c t i v i t y c o m p a r e d w i t h t h e o t h e r s e c t o r s . T h e o t h e r

m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r c o n s i s t s o f c r u m b r u b b e r a n d s m o k e d s h e e t r u b b e r .

T h e s e c t o r ' s r e l a t i v e l y l o w e m p l o y m e n t d i s t r i b u t i o n c o m p a r e d w i t h i t s

r e l a t i v e l y h i g h d i s t r i b u t i o n i n w a g e s a n d s a l a r i e s s u g g e s t s t h a t t h i s s e c t o r

p r o v i d e s r e l a t i v e l y h i g h i n c o m e j o b s . F o r e x a m p l e , i f o t h e r

m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r i n c r e a s e s o n e m i l l i o n R u p i a h i n s a l e s t o f i n a l

d e m a n d , t h i s s e c t o r w i l l p r o v i d e a n o t h e r 8 . 6 j o b s .

4 6 1

Imansyah

T h e s e c t o r w i t h t h e s e c o n d h i g h e s t t y p e I I e m p l o y m e n t m u l t i p l i e r i s

s e c t o r 1 3 ( o t h e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g ) w h i l e t y p e I e m p l o y m e n t m u l t i p l i e r i s

s e c t o r 2 0 ( f i n a n c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n s a n d r e n t ) . T h e f o o d m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r

c o n s i s t e n t l y r a n k s f i r s t f o r t y p e I o u t p u t a n d i n c o m e m u l t i p l i e r s b u t i t

f a l l s t o t h i r d p o s i t i o n f o r t y p e I a n d I I e m p l o y m e n t m u l t i p l i e r s .

6.4.3. E L A S T I C I T Y A N A L Y S I S

T h e i n p u t - o u t p u t e l a s t i c i t y a p p r o a c h p r o p o s e d b y M a t t a s a n d S h r e s t h a

( 1 9 9 1 ) p r o v i d e d a n e w i n s i g h t f o r t h e d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f s e c t o r a l p r i o r i t i e s .

T h e y c l a i m e d t h a t t h e i r a p p r o a c h w a s b e t t e r t h a n l i n k a g e s a n a l y s i s a n d

m u l t i p l i e r s a n a l y s i s b e c a u s e i t t o o k i n t o a c c o u n t t h e s e c t o r s ' s h a r e o f t h e

o u t p u t . T h e i r a p p r o a c h a l l o w s p o l i c y m a k e r s t o c o n c e n t r a t e n o t o n l y o n

t h e h i g h e s t l i n k a g e s a n d m u l t i p l i e r s b u t a l s o o n t h e s e c t o r s ' s h a r e o f a n

e c o n o m y . A s u m m a r y o f t h e f o r m u l a s o f t h e e l a s t i c i t y f o l l o w s ' :

O E , ^ = Y b ; j { y j l x ) (1)

O E ^ y j = t h e p e r c e n t a g e c h a n g e i n t o t a l o u t p u t d u e t o a p e r c e n t a g e c h a n g e

i n t h e f i n a l d e m a n d o f s e c t o r j

X = I X j

b y = t h e e l e m e n t o f L e o n t i e f m a t r i x

= f i n a l d e m a n d o f s e c t o r j

E E , ^ - { Y ^ { l J x . ) b , . l { l . l x ^ ) ] { y j l x ) ( 2 )

E E ^ y y = t h e p e r c e n t a g e c h a n g e i n e m p l o y m e n t d u e t o a p e r c e n t a g e

c h a n g e i n t h e f i n a l d e m a n d o f s e c t o r j

1 , = e m p l o j m a e n t ( n u m b e r o f p e r s o n )

1 , / x y = e m p l o y m e n t c o e f f i c i e n t s

3 F o r detail see Mat tas a n d Shrestha (1991).

4 6 2

A n Exper iment of Sma l l Region Input-Output M o d e l

I E , , j - { Y . { K I X j ) b - l { h j l x . ) ] { y . l x ) (3)

7£^y = t h e p e r c e n t a g e c h a n g e i n i n c o m e d u e t o a p e r c e n t a g e c h a n g e i n

t h e f i n a l d e m a n d o f s e c t o r ;

h , = w a g e s a n d s a l a r i e s

h j / X , = i n c o m e c o e f f i c i e n t s

S e c t o r w i t h t h e h i g h e s t r a n k i n g f o r o u t p u t , i n c o m e a n d e m p l o y m e n t

e l a s t i c i t i e s i s s e c t o r 1 3 ( o t h e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g ) . T h r e e s e c t o r s c o n s i s t e n t l y

p e r f o r m w e l l f o r a l l e l a s t i c i t i e s : s e r v i c e s ; t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a n d

c o m m u n i c a t i o n ; a n d t r a d e . T h e y d i f f e r o n l y i n t h e i r r a n k p o s i t i o n . U s i n g

e l a s t i c i t i e s a l l o w s a n a l y s t s t o d e t e r m i n e r e l a t i v e l y c o n s i s t e n t s e c t o r a l

p r i o r i t i e s f o r s o m e s e c t o r s t o i n c r e a s e o u t p u t , i n c o m e a n d e m p l o y m e n t

s i m u l t a n e o u s l y .

T a b l e 6 T h e T o p T e n o f Output, I n c o m e , a n d E m p l o y m e n t Elasticity

H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h I n p u t - O u t p u t T a b l e 1995

Rank Output

Sector No Income

Sector No. Employment Sector No.

1 13 13 13 2 21 19 20 3 17 21 19 4 19 17 21 5 1 4 17 6 3 1 1 7 18 10 10 8 20 18 16 9 16 20 3 10 6 3 4

463

Imansyah

6 . 5 . 1 . C o n c l u d i n g R e m a r k a n d P o l i c y I m p l i c a t i o n The F E S approach w a s used for the first approximation required to

construct input-output tables for H u l u Sungai Tengah. The suitable data

needed to construct input-output models for H u l u Sungai Tengah w a s

available at the sub-province level.

Food manufacturing and other manufacturing are the sectors that

show a relatively high first round effect. This indicates that this sector has

a high effect on its o w n sector. The sectors show that the highest

industrial effects are livestock and construction. However , the services,

other agriculture, and paddy .sectors show a relatively high consumer

induced effect. Rubber is one of major agriculture products in H u l u

Sungai Tengah. Its effect on other manufacturing is significant. The

sectors with the highest income backward linkage is food manufacturing

followed by other manufacturing. The highest employment backward

linkage is other manufacturing with food manufacturing ranking second.

Other value added dominated the structure of total gross output.

Other value added contributed 46.28 per cent of total gross output.

Intermediate inputs accounted for 26.73 percent of total gross output.

Imports contributed only 6.94 per cent. The sectoral distribution of the

total gross output w a s dominated by services, trade, and other

manufacturing. The dominant activity in the other manufacturing sector

was rubber manufacturing. Paddy, other manufacturing and livestock

dominated exports. The sectors with the highest local purchases were

food manufacturing and other manufacturing. Other manufacturing

purchased 64.21 percent of its inputs from the local economy.

Generally, the validation process is to evaluate the model. In a

holistic sense, the economic structure and size of the H u l u Sungai Tengah

input-output table represents the size and structure of its economy which

captures the main features its regional economies. H u l u Sungai Tengah is

more dependant on a few sectors and is more closure and more self-

reliance. This indicates that the economy of H u l u Sungai Tengah is in the

early stage of development.

Elasticity analysis shows sector 13 (other manufacturing), sector 19

(transportation and communication) and sector 16 (construction) as the

top priorities in Banjarmasin. Therefore, if local government wants to

boost local economy, policy makers should target these three sectors

4 6 4

A n Exper iment of Sma l l Reg ion Input-Output Mode l

b e c a u s e t h e y s i m u l t a n e o u s l y g e n e r a t e a h i g h i m p a c t o n o u t p u t , i n c o m e

a n d e m p l o y m e n t s i m u l t a n e o u s l y .

O n t h e o t h e r h a n d , s e c t o r 2 1 ( s e r v i c e s ) , s e c t o r 1 9 ( t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a n d

c o m m u n i c a t i o n ) , a n d s e c t o r 1 7 ( t r a d e ) a r e t h e k e y s e c t o r s t o g e n e r a t e a

h i g h i m p a c t o n o u t p u t , i n c o m e a n d e m p l o y m e n t s i m u l t a n e o u s l y i n H u l u

S u n g a i T e n g a h . T h e r e f o r e , p o l i c y m a k e r s c a n f o c u s o n t h e s e s e c t o r s t o

b o o s t l o c a l e c o n o m y .

T h e p o l i c y i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e s e r e s u l t s s u g g e s t t h a t s o m e s e c t o r s

g e n e r a t e o u t p u t , i n c o m e , a n d e m p l o y m e n t s i m u l t a n e o u s l y i n t h e s a m e

s e c t o r d u e t o a n i n c r e a s e i n s a l e s t o f i n a l d e m a n d . I n c o n c l u s i o n , t h e

s e c t o r a l p r i o r i t i e s f o r H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h a r e a c o n t i n u u m o f m o r e

s e c o n d a r y a n d t e r t i a r y s e c t o r s , e v e n t h o u g h H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h s t i l l

r e l i e s h e a v i l y o n p r i m a r y s e c t o r s .

7. R E F E R E N C E S

B e y e r s , W . B . , ( 1 9 7 6 ) . E m p i r i c a l I d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f K e y S e c t o r s : S o m e

F u r t h e r E v i d e n c e . Environment and Planning A, 8 : 2 3 1 - 2 3 6 .

^ ( 1 9 8 3 ) . T h e I n t e r r e g i o n a l o f S t r u c t u r e o f t h e U . S . E c o n o m y ,

International Regional Science Review, 8 ( 3 ) : 2 1 3 - 2 3 1 .

B e y e r s , W . B . , a n d A l v i n e , M . J . , ( 1 9 8 5 ) . E x p o r t S e r v i c e s i n P o s t i n d u s t r i a l

S o c i e t y , Papers of the Regional Science Association, 5 7 : 3 3 - 4 5 .

B i r o P u s a t S t a t i s t i k , ( 1 9 9 5 ) . Survei Biaya Usaha Tani (Central Bureau of

Statistics, 1995, Agriculture Cost Structure Survey 1995).

C h e n e r y , H . B . a n d W a t a n a b e , T . , ( 1 9 5 8 ) , I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o m p a r i s o n s o f t h e

S t r u c t u r e o f P r o d u c t i o n , Econometrica, 2 6 ( 4 ) : 4 8 7 - 5 2 1 .

C h e n e r y , H . B . , a n d T a y l o r , L . , ( 1 9 6 8 ) . D e v e l o p m e n t P a t t e m s : A m o n g

C o u n t r i e s a n d O v e r T i m e , The Review of Economics and Statistics,

5 0 ( 4 ) : 3 9 1 - 4 1 5 .

C h e n e r y , H . , a n d S y r q u i n , M . , ( 1 9 8 6 ) . T y p i c a l P a t t e m s o f t h e

T r a n s f o r m a t i o n , i n C h e n e r y , H . , R o b i n s o n , S . a n d S y r q u i n , M .

( E d s ) , Industrialization and Growth. N e w Y o r k : O x f o r d U n i v e r s i t y

P r e s s .

4 6 5

Imansyah

C h e n e r y , H . , R o b i n s o n , S . a n d S y r q u i n , M . ( E d s ) . , ( 1 9 8 6 ) , I n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n

a n d G r o i v t h , N e w Y o r k : O x f o r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s .

C l a r k , C , ( 1 9 4 0 ) , T h e C o n d i t i o n s of E c o n o m i c P r o g r e s s , L o n d o n : M a c m i l a n .

C o c h r a n e , S . C . , ( 1 9 9 1 ) , I n p u t - O u t p u t L i n k a g e s i n a F r o n t i e r R e g i o n o f

I n d o n e s i a , I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e g i o n a l Science R e v i e w , 1 3 ( l & 2 ) : 1 8 3 - 2 0 3 .

C u e l l o , F . A . , ( 1 9 9 4 ) . R e g i o n a l C r o w t h T h e o r i e s a n d t h e M e a s u r e m e n t o f

R e g i o n a l S t r u c t u r a l C h a n g e , U n p u b l i s h e d P h . D . T h e s i s , U n i v e r s i t y

o f I l l i n o i s , U r b a n a C h a m p a i g n .

C u e l l o , F . A . , M a n s o u r i , F . , a n d H e w i n g s , C . J . D . , ( 1 9 9 2 ) . T h e I d e n t i f i c a t i o n

o f S t r u c t u r e a t t h e S e c t o r a l L e v e l : A R e f o r m u l a t i o n o f t h e

H i r s c h m a n - R a s m u s s e n K e y S e c t o r I n d i c e s , E c o n o m i c S y s t e m s

R e s e a r c h , 4 ( 4 ) : 2 8 5 - 2 9 6

D e u t s c h , J . a n d S y r q u i n , M . , ( 1 9 8 9 ) . E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t a n d t h e

S t r u c t u r e o f P r o d u c t i o n , E c o n o m i c S y s t e m s R e s e a r c h , 1 ( 4 ) : 4 4 7 - 4 6 4 .

D e w h u r s t , J . H . L . , ( 1 9 9 2 ) . U s i n g t h e R A S T e c h n i q u e a s a T e s t o f H y b r i d

M e t h o d s o f R e g i o n a l I n p u t - O u t p u t T a b l e , R e g i o n a l S t u d i e s , 2 6 ( 1 ) : 8 1 -

9 1 .

D i a m o n d , J . , ( 1 9 7 6 ) . K e y S e c t o r s i n S o m e U n d e r d e v e l o p e d C o u n t r i e s : A

C o m m e n t , K y k l o s , 2 9 : 7 6 2 - 7 6 4 .

D i e t z e n b a c h e r , E . , ( 1 9 8 8 - a ) . E s t i m a t i o n o f t h e L e o n t i e f I n v e r s e f r o m t h e

P r a c t i t i o n e r ' s P o i n t o f V i e w , M a t h e m a t i c a l S o c i a l Sciences, 1 6 : 1 8 1 -

1 8 7 .

D i n a s P e r i n d u s t r i a n K a b u p a t e n H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h , ( 1 9 9 5 ) . L a p o r a n

T a h u n a n , ( O f f i c e o f I n d u s t r y o f H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h R e g e n c y ,

Y e a r l y R e p o r t 1 9 9 5 ) .

D i n a s P e r t a n i a n K a b u p a t e n H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h , ( 1 9 9 5 ) . L a p o r a n T a h u n a n ( O f f i c e o f A g r i c u l t u r e o f H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h R e g e n c y , Y e a r l y

R e p o r t 1 9 9 5 ) .

F i s h e r , A l l a n C . B . , ( 1 9 3 9 ) . P r o d u c t i o n : P r i m a r y , S e c o n d a r y a n d T e r t i a r y ,

E c o n o m i c R e c o r d , J u n e : 2 4 - 3 8 .

H e w i n g s , C . J . D . , ( 1 9 7 4 ) . T h e E f f e c t o f A g g r e g a t i o n o n t h e E m p i r i c a l

I d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f K e y S e c t o r s i n a R e g i o n a l E c o n o m y : a P a r t i a l

E v a l u a t i o n o f A l t e r n a t i v e T e c t m i q u e s , E n v i r o n m e n t a n d P l a n n i n g A ,

6 : 4 3 9 - 4 5 3

4 6 6

A n Exper iment of Sma l l Reg ion Input-Output Mode l

, ( 1 9 7 7 ) . E v a l u a t i n g t h e P o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r E x c h a n g i n g

R e g i o n a l I n p u t - O u t p u t C o e f f i c i e n t s , E n v i r o n m e n t a n d P l a n n i n g A , 9 :

9 2 7 - 9 4 4 .

, ( 1 9 8 2 ) . T h e E m p i r i c a l I d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f K e y S e c t o r s i n a n

E c o n o m y : A R e g i o n a l P e r s p e c t i v e , D e v e l o p i n g E c o n o m i e s , 2 0 ( 2 ) : 1 7 3 -

1 9 5 .

, ( 1 9 8 3 - a ) . A D e c o m p o s i t i o n A p p r o a c h t o t h e A n a l y s i s o f

C h a n g e s i n R e g i o n a l E c o n o m i c S t r u c t u r e , M o d e l i n g a n d S i m u l a t i o n ,

1 4 : 8 5 9 - 8 6 3 .

, ( 1 9 8 3 - b ) . D e s i g n o f A p p r o p r i a t e A c c o u n t i n g S y s t e m s f o r

R e g i o n a l D e v e l o p m e n t i n D e v e l o p m e n t C o u n t r i e s , P a p e r s of t h e

R e g i o n a l Science A s s o c i a t i o n , 5 1 : 1 7 9 - 1 9 5 .

, ( 1 9 8 3 - c ) . A C o s t E f f e c t i v e A p p r o a c h t o P r i m a r y I n p u t -

O u t p u t D a t a C o l l e c t i o n : S o m e C o m m e n t s , R e v i e w of P u b l i c D a t a

U s e , 1 1 : 1 9 7 - 1 9 9 .

, ( 1 9 8 4 ) . L i m i t e d I n f o r m a t i o n i n S p a t i a l A n a l y s i s a n d

D e v e l o p m e n t P l a n n i n g , i n C e h a r d , B „ F i s c h e r , M . M , a n d N i j k a m p ,

P . ( e d s ) . R e c e n t D e v e l o p m e n t s i n S p a t i a l A n a l y s i s , C o w e r P u b l i s h i n g

C o m p a n y , V e r m o n t , U S A , C h a p t e r 8 : 1 4 5 - 1 6 2 .

^ ( 1 9 8 9 ) . K e y S e c t o r s a n d S t r u c t u r a l C h a n g e i n t h e B r a z i l i a n

E c o n o m y : A C o m p a r i s o n o f A l t e r n a t i v e , j o u r n a l of P o l i c y M o d e l i n g ,

1 1 : 6 7 - 9 0 .

H e w i n g s , C . J . D . a n d F o n c e s c a , M . , C u i l h o t o , J . , a n d S o n i s , M . , ( 1 9 8 9 ) . K e y

S e c t o r s a n d S t r u c t u r a l C h a n g e i n t h e B r a z i l i a n E c o n o m y : A

C o m p a r i s o n o f A l t e r n a t i v e A p p r o a c h e s a n d T h e i r P o l i c y

I m p l i c a t i o n s , j o u r n a l of P o l i c y M o d e l i n g , 1 1 ( 1 ) : 6 7 - 9 0 .

H e w i n g s , C . J . D . a n d J a n s o n , B . N . , ( 1 9 8 0 ) . E x c h a n g i n g R e g i o n a l I n p u t -

O u t p u t C o e f f i c i e n t s : A R e p l y a n d F u r t h e r C o m m e n t s , E n v i r o n m e n t

a n d P l a n n i n g A , 1 2 : 8 4 3 - 8 5 4 .

H e w i n g s , C . J . D . a n d J e n s e n , R . C , ( 1 9 8 6 ) . R e g i o n a l I n t e r r e g i o n a l a n d

M u l t i r e g i o n a l I n p u t - O u t p u t A n a l y s i s , i n N i j k a m p , P e t e r , ( e d ) ,

H a n d b o o k of R e g i o n a l a n d U r b a n E c o n o m i c s , V o l u m e 1 , E l s e v i e r

S c i e n c e P u b l i s h e r , C h a p t e r 8 : 2 9 5 - 3 5 3 .

, ( 1 9 8 8 ) . E m e r g i n g C h a l l e n g e s i n R e g i o n a l I n p u t - O u t p u t

A n a l y s i s , A n n u a l s of R e g i o n a l Science, 2 2 : 4 3 - 5 3 .

4 6 7

Imansyah

H e w i n g s , G . J . D . a n d J e n s e n , R . C . a n d W e s t , C . R . , ( 1 9 8 7 ) . H o l i s t i c M a t r i x

D e s c r i p t o r o f R e g i o n a l I n p u t - O u t p u t S y s t e m s , W o r k i n g P a p e r s i n

E c o n o m i c s . N o . 6 0 . D e p a r t m e n t o f E c o n o m i c s , U n i v e r s i t y o f

Q u e e n s l a n d .

I m a n s y a h , M . H a n d r y , ( 2 0 0 0 ) . A n E f f i c i e n t M e t h o d f o r C o n s t r u c t i n g

R e g i o n a l I n p u t - O u t p u t T a b l e : A H o r i z o n t a l A p p r o a c h i n

I n d o n e s i a , Paper for t h e l 3 t h International Conference on Input-Output

Terchniques, 2 1 - 2 5 A u g u s t 2 0 0 0 , M a c e r a t a , I t a l y .

I m a n s y a h , M . H a n d r y , W e s t , C u y R . a n d J e n s e n , R o d n e y C , ( 2 0 0 0 ) . A n

A p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e F E S A p p r o a c h t o S m a l l R e g i o n i n I n d o n e s i a :

B a n j a r m a s i n I n p u t - O u t p u t M o d e l , Paper accepted for the I 3 t h

International Conference on Input-Output Techniques, 2 1 - 2 5 A u g u s t

2 0 0 0 , M a c e r a t a , I t a l y .

H i r s c h m a n , A l b e r t O . , ( 1 9 5 8 ) , The Strategy of Economic Development, Y a l e

U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , N e w H a v e n .

H u g h e s , D . W . , a n d H o l l a n d , D . , ( 1 9 9 4 ) . C o r e - P e r i p h e r y E c o n o m i c

L i n k a g e : A M e a s u r e o f S p r e a d a n d P o s s i b l e B a c k w a s h E f f e c t s f o r

t h e W a s h i n g t o n E c o n o m y , Land Economics, 7 0 ( 3 ) : 3 6 4 - 3 7 7 .

J a c k s o n , R . W . I s r a i l e v i c h , P . R . a n d C o m e r , J . C . , ( 1 9 9 2 ) . A N o t e o n t h e R o l e

o f S u r v e y D a t a a n d E x p e r t O p i n i o n i n C o n s t r u c t i n g I n p u t - O u t p u t

T a b l e s , Papers in Regional Science, 7 1 ( 1 ) : 8 7 - 9 3 .

J e n s e n R . C . a n d W e s t , C . R . , ( 1 9 8 0 ) , T h e E f f e c t o f R e l a t i v e C o e f f i c i e n t S i z e

o n I n p u t - o u t p u t M u l t i p l i e r s . Environment and Planning A, 1 2 : 6 5 9 -

6 7 0 .

J e n s e n , R . C , ( 1 9 8 0 ) . T h e C o n c e p t o f A c c u r a c y i n R e g i o n a l I n p u t - O u t p u t

M o d e l s , International Regional Science Revim, 5 ( 2 ) : 1 3 9 - 1 5 4 .

, ( 1 9 9 0 ) . C o n s t r u c t i o n a n d U s e o f R e g i o n a l I n p u t - O u t p u t

M o d e l s : P r o g r e s s a n d P r o s p e c t s , International Regional Science

Review, 1 3 ( l & 2 ) : 9 - 2 5 .

J e n s e n , R . C , H e w i n g s , C . J . D . , S o n i s , M . , a n d W e s t , C . R . , ( 1 9 8 8 ) . O n T a x o n o m y

o f E c o n o m i e s . Australian Regional Economic Journal, 2 : 2 - 2 4 .

J e n s e n , R . C , M a n d e v i l l e , T . D . a n d K a r u n a r a t n e , N . D . , ( 1 9 7 9 ) . Regional

Economic Development: Generation of Regional Input-Output Analysis,

G r o o m H e l m , L o n d o n .

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Jensen, R . C , West, G .R . , Dewhurst , J . H . L . and Hewings. , ( 1 9 9 1 ) . O n the

Concepts of Fundamental Economic Structure, in Dewhurst , J . H . L . ,

Hewings , C . J . D . , and Jensen, R . C (eds). Regional Economic

Modeling: New Developments and Interpretations. Avebury Sydney,

Chapter 12: 228-293.

Jensen, R . C , West, C . R . , and Hewings, C . J . D . , (1988). The Study of

Regional Economic Structure Using Input-Output Tables, Regional

Studies, 22:209-220.

K a n w i l Departemen Perindustrian dan Perdagangan Kalsel , (1995).

Laporan Tahunan 1995 (Office of T r a d e and Industry of South

Kalimantan, 1995,Yearly Report 1995 ).

. „ ^ (19%). Laporan Tahunan 1996 (Office of Trade and Industry

of South Kalimantan, 19%,Yearly Report 1996).

, (1995-a). Statistik Listrik (Statistics Office of South

Kal imantan, 1995, Electricity Statistics).

, (1995-b). Statistik Industri Besar dan Sedang (Statistics Office

of South Kalimantan, 1995, Large and M e d i u m Scale Industry

Statistics).

, (1995-c). Kalimantan Selatan Dalam Angka (Statistics Office

of South Kalimantan, 1995, South Kal imantan in Figures).

, (1995-d). Statistik Air Minum ( Statistics Office of South

Kal imantan, 1995, Water Supply Statistics).

, (19%). Statistik Industri Besar dan Sedang (Statistics Office of

South Kalimantan, 19%, Large and M e d i u m Scale Industry

Statistics).

Kantor Statistik Kabupaten H u l u Sungai Tengah, (1995-a). Kabupaten

Hulu Sungai Tengah Dalam Angka (Statistics Office of H u l u Sungai

Tengah Regency, 1995, H u l u Sungai Tengah Regency in Figures).

, (1995-b). Pendapatan Regional Kabupaten Hulu Sungai Tengah

1993-95 (Statistics Office of H u l u Sungai Tengah Regency, 1995,

Regional Income of H u l u Sungai Tengah Regency).

^ (1996). Indikator Kesejahteraan Rakyat Kabupaten Hulu Sungai

Tengah (Statistics Office of H u l u Sungai Tengah, 1995, People

Welfare Indicator of H u l u Sungai Tengah) .

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K a r a s k a , G . J . , ( 1 9 6 8 ) . V a r i a t i o n o f I n p u t - O u t p u t C o e f f i c i e n t s f o r D i f f e r e n t

L e v e l o f A g g r e g a t i o n , j o u r n a l of R e g i o n a l Science, 8 ( 2 ) : 2 1 5 - 2 2 7 .

K a t z , J . L . , ( 1 9 8 0 ) . T h e R e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n T y p e I a n d T y p e I I I n c o m e

M u l t i p l i e r s i n a n I n p u t - O u t p u t M o d e l , I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e g i o n a l Science

R e v i e w , 5 : 5 1 - 5 6 .

L a h r , M i c h a e l L . , ( 1 9 9 2 ) . A n I n v e s t i g a t i o n i n t o M e t h o d s f o r P r o d u c i n g H y b r i d

R e g i o n a l I n p u t - O u t p u t T a b l e s ( H y b r i d M o d e l s ) , P h . D . D i s s e r t a t i o n ,

U n i v e r s i t y o f P e n n s y l v a n i a .

^ ( 1 9 9 3 ) . A R e v i e w o f t h e L i t e r a t u r e S u p p o r t i n g H y b r i d

A p p r o a c h t o C o n s t r u c t i n g R e g i o n a l I n p u t - o u t p u t M o d e l s ,

E c o n o m i c S y s t e m s R e s e a r c h , 5 ( 3 ) : 2 7 7 - 2 9 3 .

L a u m a s , P . S . , ( 1 9 7 5 ) . K e y S e c t o r s i n S o m e U n d e r d e v e l o p e d C o u n t r i e s ,

K y W o s , 2 8 : 6 2 - 7 9 .

L e o n t i e f , W a s s i i y , ( 1 9 6 3 ) . S t r u c t u r e o f D e v e l o p m e n t , S c i e n t i f i c A m e r i c a n ,

S e p t e m b e r : 1 4 8 - 1 6 6 .

M a t t a s , K . A . a n d S h r e s t h a , C M . , ( 1 9 9 1 ) . A N e w A p p r o a c h t o

D e t e r m i n i n g S e c t o r a l P r i o r i t i e s i n a n E c o n o m y : I n p u t - O u t p u t

E l a s t i c i t i e s , A p p l i e d E c o n o m i c s , 2 3 : 2 4 7 - 2 5 4 .

M c C a r i , B . A . , a n d A p l a n d , J . , ( 1 9 8 6 ) . V a l i d a t i o n o f L i n e a r P r o g r a m m i n g

M o d e l s , S o u t h e r n j o u r n a l of A g r i c u l t u r a l E c o n o m i c s , D e c e m b e r : 1 5 5 - 1 6 4 .

M i l l e r , R . E . a n d B l a i r , P . D . , ( 1 9 8 5 ) . I n p u t - O u t p u t A n a l y s i s : F o u n d a t i o n s a n d

E x t e n s i o n , P r e n t i c e H a i l , E n g e l w o o d C l i f f s , N e w J e r s e y .

M o r r i s o n , W . I . , ( 1 9 7 3 - a ) . T h e D e v e l o p m e n t o f a n U r b a n I n t e r i n d u s t r y

M o d e l : 1 . B u i l d i n g t h e I n p u t - O u t p u t A c c o u n t s , E n v i r o n m e n t a n d

P l a n n i n g A , 5: 3 6 9 - 3 8 3 .

^ ( 1 9 7 3 - b ) . T h e D e v e l o p m e n t o f a n U r b a n I n t e r i n d u s t r y

M o d e l : 2 . T h e S t r u c t u r e o f t h e P e t e r b o r o u g h E c o n o m y i n 1 9 6 8 ,

E n v i r o n m e n t a n d P l a n n i n g A , 5 : 4 3 3 - 4 6 0 .

^ ( 1 9 7 3 - c ) . T h e D e v e l o p m e n t o f a n U r b a n I n t e r i n d u s t r y

M o d e l : 3 . I n p u t - O u t p u t M u l t i p l i e r s f o r P e t e r b o r o u g h , E n v i r o n m e n t

a n d P l a n n i n g A , 5 : 5 4 5 - 5 5 4 .

M o r r i s o n , W . I . a n d S m i t h , P . , ( 1 9 7 4 ) . N o n s u r v e y I n p u t - O u t p u t

T e c h n i q u e s a t t h e S m a l l A r e a L e v e l : A n E v a l u a t i o n , j o u r n a l of

R e g i o n a l Science, 1 4 ( 1 ) : 1 - 1 4 .

4 7 0

A n Exper iment ot Sma l l Region Input-Output Mode l

P a r k , S . H . a n d C h a n , K . S . , ( 1 9 8 9 ) . A C r o s s - C o u n t r y I n p u t - O u t p u t

A n a l y s i s o f I n t e r s e c t o r a l R e l a t i o n s h i p s b e t w e e n M a n u f a c t u r i n g ,

W o r l d D e v e l o p m e n t , 1 7 ( 2 ) : 1 9 9 - 2 1 2 .

^ ( 1 9 9 1 ) . A R e p l y A C r o s s - C o u n t r y I n p u t - O u t p u t A n a l y s i s o f

I n t e r s e c t o r a l R e l a t i o n s h i p s b e t w e e n . W o r l d D e v e l o p m e n t , 1 9 : 1 7 9 1 -

1 7 9 2 .

P a r k , S . H . , M o h t a d i , M . , a n d K u b u r s i , A . A . , ( 1 9 8 1 ) . E r r o r s i n R e g i o n a l

N o n s u r v e y I n p u t - O u t p u t M o d e l s : A n a l y t i c a l a n d S i m u l a t i o n

R e s u l t s , j o u r n a l of R e g i o n a l Science, 2 1 ( 3 ) : 3 2 1 - 3 3 9 .

P e m e r i n t a h D a e r a h T i n g k a t I I K a b u p a t e n H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h , ( 1 9 9 6 ) .

L a p o r a n P e l a k s a n a a n A P B D T a h u n A n g g a r a n 1 9 9 5 / 1 9 9 6 ( L o c a l

C o v e m m e n t o f t h e S e c o n d L e v e l o f H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h R e g e n c y ,

1 9 9 6 , R e p o r t t h e A p p l i c a t i o n o f B u d g e t a n d R e v e n u e f o r 1 9 9 5 / 1 9 9 6

F i s c a l Y e a r ) .

R a s m u s s e n , R . , ( 1 9 5 6 ) . S t u d i e s i n I n t e r s e c t o r a l R e l a t i o n s , N o r t h H o l l a n d

P u b l i s h i n g C o m p a n y , A m s t e r d a m .

R i c h a r d s o n , H . W . , ( 1 9 8 5 ) . I n p u t - O u t p u t a n d E c o n o m i c B a s e M u l t i p l i e r s :

L o o k i n g B a c k w a r d a n d F o r w a r d , j o u r n a l of R e g i o n a l Science,

2 5 ( 4 ) : 6 0 7 - 6 6 1 .

S i m p s o n , D . , a n d T s u k u i , J . , ( 1 9 6 5 ) . T h e F u n d a m e n t a l S t r u c t u r e o f I n p u t -

O u t p u t T a b l e s , A n I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o m p a r i s o n , T h e R e v i e w of

E c o n o m i c s a n d S t a t i s t i c s , p p . 4 3 4 - 4 4 6 .

S m i t h , C h r i s t i n e , ( 1 9 8 3 ) . A n I n i t i a l E x p l o r a t i o n i n t o a n A l t e r n a t i v e S y s t e m

f o r S m a l l E c o n o m y I n p u t - O u t p u t T a b l e C o n s t r u c t i o n , P a p e r

presented to t h e I n p u t - O u t p u t W o r k s h o p of t h e 8 t h M e e t i n g of T h e

R e g i o n a l Science A s s o c i a t i o n ( A u s t r a l i a & N e w Z e a l a n d S e c t i o n ) ,

A r m i d a l e , 3 0 t h N o v e m b e r - 2 n d D e c e m b e r , 1 9 8 3 .

S m i t h , C h r i s t i n e a n d J e n s e n , R . C . W i t h o u t y e a r . A S y s t e m f o r G e n e r a t i o n of

S m a l l - E c o n o m y I n p u t - o u t p u t T a b l e s , M i m e o . D e p a r t m e n t o f

E c o n o m i c s , T h e U n i v e r s i t y o f Q u e e n s l a n d .

S o n i s , M . , C u i l h o t o , J . J . M . , H e w i n g s , C . J . D . , a n d M a r t i n s , E . B . , ( 1 9 9 5 ) .

L i n k a g e , K e y S e c t o r s , S t r u c t u r a l C h a n g e : S o m e N e w P e r s p e c t i v e s ,

T h e D e v e l o p i n g E c o n o m i e s , 3 3 ( 3 ) : 2 3 3 - 2 6 9 .

4 7 1

Imansyah

S y r q u i n , M . , ( 1 9 8 8 ) . P a t t e m s o f S t r u c t u r a l C h a n g e , i n C h e n e r y , H a n d

S r i n i v a s a n , T . N . ( e d s ) . H a n d b o o k of D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s , V o l . 1 .

N o r t h H o l l a n d . S y r q u i n , M . a n d C h e n e r y , H . 1 9 9 2 , T h r e e D e c a d e s

o f I n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n , i n L a i , D e e p a k ( e d ) , D e i > e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s ,

V o l . I , A n E l g a r R e f e r e n c e C o l l e c t i o n .

V a n d e r W e s t h u i z e n , J . M . , ( 1 9 9 2 ) . T o w a r d s D e v e l o p i n g a H y b r i d M e t h o d f o r

I n p u t - O u t p u t T a b l e C o m p i l a t i o n a n d I d e n t i f y i n g a F u n d a m e n t a l

E c o n o m i c S t r u c t u r e ( R e g i o n a l E c o n o m i c s ) , P h . D . D i s s e r t a t i o n .

U n i v e r s i t y o f P e n n s y l v a n i a .

^ ( 1 9 9 7 ) . C e l l P r o p e r t i e s a s a B a s i s f o r C o n s t r u c t i n g H y b r i d

R e g i o n a l I n p u t - O u t p u t T a b l e s , J o u r n a l f o r S t u d i e s i n E c o n o m i c s a n d

E c o n o m e t r i c s , 2 1 : 4 5 - 6 8 .

W e s t , C . R . , ( 1 9 8 1 ) . C e n e r a t i o n o f R e g i o n a l I n p u t - O u t p u t T a b l e s ( C R I T ) :

A n I n t r o s p e c t i o n . D e p a r t m e n t o f E c o n o m i c s , U n i v e r s i t y o f

Q u e e n s l a n d , W o r k i n g P a p e r N o . 2 1 . M a y 1 9 8 1 .

^ ( 1 9 8 2 ) . S e n s i t i v i t y a n d K e y S e c t o r A n a l y s i s i n I n p u t -

O u t p u t M o d e l s , A u s t r a l i a n E c o n o m i c P a p e r s , 2 1 : 3 6 5 - 3 7 8 .

^ ( 1 9 9 0 ) . R e g i o n a l T r a d e E s t i m a t i o n : A H y b r i d A p p r o a c h ,

I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e g i o n a l Science R e v i e w , 1 3 : 1 0 3 - 1 1 8 .

^ ( 1 9 9 3 ) . I n p u t - O u t p u t A n a l y s i s f o r P r a c t i o n e r s v e r s i o n 7.1

U s e r ' s G u i d e .

W e s t , C . R . , ( 1 9 9 7 ) . S t m c t u r a l C h a n g e s a n d F u n d a m e n t a l E c o n o m i c

S t r u c t u r e s : T h e C a s e o f A u s t r a l i a , P a p e r presented to N o r t h A m e r i c a n

M e e t i n g of t h e R e g i o n a l Science A s s o c i a t i o n I n t e r n a t i o n a l , Buffalo, N e w

Y o r k : 5 - 9 N o v e m b e r 1 9 9 7 .

, ( 1 9 9 8 ) . S t r u c t u r a l C h a n g e a n d t h e H o l l o w i n g O u t o f t h e

Q u e e n s l a n d E c o n o m y , 1 9 7 3 - 9 2 , P a p e r presented at 2 2 n d A N Z R S A I

C o n f e r e n c e , T a n u n d a , S o u t h A u s t r a l i a , S e p t e m b e r 1 9 9 8 .

W e s t , C . R . , a n d J e n s e n , R . C , ( 1 9 8 7 ) . F u r t h e r E v i d e n c e t o S u p p o r t t h e

F u n d a m e n t a l E c o n o m i c S t m c t u r e H y p o t h e s i s , P a p e r to t h e I 2 t h

A n n u a l Conference A u s t r a l i a a n d N e w Z e a l a n d S e c t i o n R e g i o n a l Science

A s s o c i a t i o n , G e e l o n g , D e c e m b e r .

4 7 2

A n Exper iment of Sma l l Region Input-Output M o d e l

X u , S o n g l i n g a n d M a d d e n , M o s s , ( 1 9 9 1 ) . T h e C o n c e p t o f I m p o r t a n t

C o e f f i c i e n t s i n I n p u t - O u t p u t M o d e l s , i n D e w h u r s t , J . H . L . ,

H e w i n g s , C . J . D . , a n d J e n s e n , R . C . ( e d s ) . R e g i o n a l E c o n o m i c

M o d e l i n g : N e w D e v e l o p m e n t s a n d I n t e r p r e t a t i o n s . A v e b u r y S y d n e y ,

C h a p t e r 1 4 : 6 6 - 9 5 .

4 7 3

Imansyah

A P P E N D I C E S Appendix 1

Scheme of H y b r i d P r o c e d u r e u s i n g FES A p p r o a c h

S l o p :

Stop 4

Phase I Msp I Ma i l w i l h o o l k v l i o n x i rooicnal tables as

rel'etenee tables

( aleiilate leeiessinii a i iabsi^

Step a

Aggrs'ealiiMi aJ i i is lmenl

Step

Step (>

I'haw

Step

Step •>

Step 11

( aleiilate ei>eHieienIs>4 xanatinit ,<i mpiit-iail|nil ei 'el i ieiei its aj'the reieienee labk's

t ak l l la le sellMtlx ll\ ai laKsIs I'l t l v a\elaee ieei>'>iial tables

3 e s

step S

I sinuate iisiiie leeiessnin ai iaKsis

Step 10

I st I male e e averaee eoeliieients other means

Step i :

Ix t imale : e e. axetaee eoel ik ients >>tlKM means

Continued on the next ixige

4 7 4

A n Exper iment of Sma l l Region Input-Output Mode l

I'ha.so III

Slop I 3

Slop 15

Slop I •

Slop 1.x

Slop \ '

Slop 14 i y y

< ollool suivriordat.-i {••r inlorinoLliali.' oolls

( ollool su|x-ru'r Ja la l i+ final rlomanJ anJ piimarx mpul

Dori\o proK+xpo IntormoJialo iransih-lion lahlo

Slop Ic

l )orl\e pr<>Ki|\|v l ixhr i J labk UMiii,' I k s appioaoh

ROOOIK I IO j n J oliook

f

( oinpk-to liiial Inhrul l.ihk-

Run sonsilix i l\ aniiK sis

Stop : o liisoit .supon.a Ja la

11 noos-ssaiA ik ai.li list

t aloiilato inxcrso matrix and iiuiltipliors

4 7 5

Imansyah

Appendix 2 Sectors Classification

1 . P a d d y

2 . O t h e r F o o d C r o p s

3 . O t h e r A g r i c u l t u r e

4 . L i v e s t o c k

5 . F o r e s t r y

6 . F i s h e r y

7 . O t h e r M i n i n g

8 . M i n e r a l M i n i n g

9 . O i l M i n i n g

1 0 . F o o d M a n u f a c t u r i n g

1 1 . M i n e r a l M a n u f a c t u r i n g

1 2 . H a n d i c r a f t

1 3 . O t h e r M a n u f a c t u r i n g

1 4 . O i l a n d G a s R e f i n e r y

1 5 . U t i l i t i e s

1 6 . C o n s t r u c t i o n

1 7 . T r a d e

1 8 . R e s t a u r a n t a n d H o t e l

1 9 . T r a n s p . & C o m m u n i c a t i o n

2 0 . F i n a n c i a l I n s t , a n d R e n t

2 1 . S e r v i c e s

H H l . H o u s e h o l d C o n s u m p t i o n E x p e n d i t u r e

1 * 2 . G o v e r n m e n t C o n s u m p t i o n E x p e n d i t u r e

F 3 . C a p i t a l F o r m a t i o n

F 4 . C h a n g e i n s t o c k

F 5 . E x p o r t

P I . W a g e s a n d S a l a r i e s

P 2 . O t h e r V a l u e A d d e d

P 3 . I m p o r t

A n Exper iment of Sma l l Reglpiy Input-Output Mode l

i s , • ^ • , I " k p i f i " * '

. • ; V ; v Y T ? • Appendix3 0 " * v Y " >'• " Y i T ' " " 7 )

H u l u S u n g a i T e n g a h I n p u t - O u t p u t T a b l e 1995, P r o d u c e r P r i c e (Rp m i l l i o n ) SECTOR 1 1 7 A 5 b 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 7 A

14 \ 007 A r\ U /I A A U A U 0 0 0 3859 0 A 0 A 0

A 0 A 0 7 A JO r D 1 2 0 0 0 100 77 0 0 0 1 J A u A (J r r r

333 3 3 1 23

5 0 0 0 0 332 18 0 10855 0 A A U 1 i r D 0 71 T

2 / 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 134 48 0 1 0

c D

A 1 zU U 45 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 285 0 A U A z tr

3 1 A C 7 0 2 0 37 0 0 1 A u 7 A A U U A 0 A

0 0 0 0 0 0 A

0 /Y 0 A

tj g A A U u u A U A 0 A 0

2 0 0 4 u i A .to

A U q J A u

A 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 A 0 A U U 1 m A U /b 0 0 0 474 0 fY (J A 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 g 3 A A

u A A u 4 0 0 0

12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 591 27 371 1821 1 47 0 0 0 4 2 0 2213 0 14 0 0 0 0 : 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 1 8 3 1 34 0 4 0 12 1 0 97 0 16 36 2 5 6 2 53 0 3 0 19 1 0 268 0 17 671 41- 573 279 7 431 0 33 0 686 25 0 5554 0 18 0 15 194 3 37 168 0 17 0 40 11 0 173 0 19 115 7 140 84 2 198 0 12 0 573 8 0 3346 0 20 373 15 155 22 4 167 0 17 0 96 3 0 282 0 21 36 26 113 124 8 211 0 21 0 121 2 0 420 0

TOTAL 2491, 184 2446 5237 123 2049 0 111 0 6489 203 0 23525 0 P I 12416 315 10122 546 157 2656 0 438 0 818 198 0 3245 0 . P2 22137 2758 13975 5419 989 1 7066 0 1133 0 1570 278 0 7940 0 P3 1886 84 1060 5343 75 877 0 25 0 1228 2 0 7218 0

TOTAL 38930 3340 27603 16545 1345 22648 0 1707 0 10105 681 0 41928 0 Employment 25045 7351 28803 2353 9009 9237 0 570 0 1355 534 0 2218

Imansyah s j o o

1 V 16 1 Q

17 1R 19 20 21 X 1 TOTAL HH1 F2 F3 F4 F5 TOTAL 1 1 u n A n 0 0 0 4574 0 0 140 18030 16187 38930 z fl n 1 04 1:7

J1 0 0 34 675 2940 0 0 -281 0 3340

1 J

fl n n u

78 xu

440 1 \ 12258 5081 19 1029 1627 7588 27603 A fl u A 1 Aiin 4 0 11 u

1 1 u 4674 3123 0 0 2083 6665 16545

C D o 1 a 1 •+ A u A 0 1 A 375 JO J 0 0 -438 825 1345 O fl u n 777 7 I 14 0 g 1046 1451 2 0 0 2689 4400 22648 7 n u A U A u A A U g 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q O U /I "7 7 4 / J A U A U 0 0 c J S I S 1 *+/ J A -281 0 1 707 Q fl A A A U 0 0 A 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 2 7 112 27 1 151 952 10654 0 0 -1511 11 10105 n 0 50 2 2 419 5 33 528 107 7 33 6 0 681 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 2 1904 85 15 74 22 51 7231 8837 249 618 1 3394 11 599 41928 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 22 5 177 54 25 260 284 986 1609 92 0 56 0 2742 16 19 214 187 338 481 429 238 2349 1132 669 18270 -4323 0 1 809() 17 598 577 728 1856 1156 844 2358 16418 8619 1092 5028 16153 0 47311 18 10 1110 3095 145 754 593 255 6619 1398 1567 0 7905 0 1 7489 19 314 185 1367 3224 3997 463 1071 15105 8601 1601 1 109 3157 0 29573 20 14 2020 1380 526 546 1461 2117 9199 11289 625 0 1800 0 22914 21 22 182 954 179 4440 552 5021 12434 8001 26315 901 8276 0 55928

TOTAL 1000 6739 8357 8228 12379 4631 11745 95936 87965 32236 27128 68341 47275 358882 P I 140 2286 5221 1636 2758 2263 26744 71959 0 0 0 0 0 71959 P2 211 7451 32875 6963 12301 15570 17439 166076 0 0 0 0 0 166076 P3 1391 1621 858 662 2135 450 0 24915 0 0 0 0 0 24915

TOTAL 2742 18096 47311 17489 29573 22914 55928 358886 87965 32236 27128 68341 47275 621831 Employment 981 1939 7181 3080 2168 228 13005 115057 0 0 0 0 0 115057

A n Exper iment of Smal l Region Input-Output M o d e l

A p p e n d i x 4 Sectoral Distribution

Hulu Sungai Tengah l-O Table (Rp.OOOOOO)

SECTOR eVtOCNT % E M m O Y M f J i T l l I 25«5JO

2 7JMC1 > 2I»1.0 4 2J550 20 5 9(1X10 6 92J70 7 00 00 1 5X1.0 0.5 9 (10 0.0 n 11550 1.2 II 5M0 0.5 12 00 0.0 a 22llfO 1.9 M 00 00 15 9110 09 K I9!«0 17 17 71110 II WKlO 2.7 19 21610 1.9 20 2210 02 21 IIOCLIO

TOT-U AVHR^Cl V U X I M I M M I M V a M S r O D E V

115057 0 liKO 54719

2SS010 00

11160.9

4 7 9