Hybrid regimes GLI ESITI DELLE DEMOCRATIZZAZIONI.
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GLI ESITI DELLE DEMOCRATIZZAZIONI
Temi e questioni
• Successi, successi parziali, fallimenti
• Regimi di transizione o ibridi ?
• Il ruolo delle eredità
- i conflitti tra Stato e nazione
- il partito unico e la mobilitazione di massa
- Le élites
• L’apprendimento politico
• Is there the possibility of singling out a new kind of political arrangements between authoritarianisms and democracies?
• If so, is this only a transitional situation, as we could expect, or could it be a regime?
Short excursus on the history of concept
• Linz, the case of Spain after WWII
• Recent developments
main empirical findings
• There is such a regime, even with stable patterns, but it is difficult to define adequately;
• It is also difficult to find a satisfactory classification
• However, the main model is the “quasi-democracy”, that is a multi dimensional configurations where all main components don’t achieve the minimalist characteristics to have a democracy.
Empirical size of the phenomenon
58 countries (30% of the world’s total) are ranked by Freedom House as “partially free”
Outline of the presentation
• What is a regime
• Definition of hybrid regime between democracy and authoritarianism
• Empirical results
What is a regime
• regimes ‘are more permanent forms of political organization’ (Fishman 1990, 428)
• the set of government institutions and of norms that are either formalized or are informally recognized as existing in a given territory and with respect to a given population.
• a regime has a minimal persistence/ stabilization
Minimalist definition of democracy
• Free, fair, competitive, recurrent elections
• More than one party
• Universal suffrage
• Alternative sources of information
• Plus the two footnotes by Schmitter:– decision-making process should not be constrained
by non-elected elites – and by external powers.
Authoritarianism I: Linz
– limited pluralism, – low mobilization/controlled participation– mentalities– small leading group or leader– uncertainty about rules, but predictable ones
Authoritarianism II -Schedler
• elections are inclusive, minimally pluralistic and competitive (opposition parties allowed to run), minimally open (opposition parties not subject to massive repression)
• but instruments of authoritarian rule: – as there are infringements of political rights and civil
liberties, restriction of candidate’s access to mass media and campaign finance, imposition of formal or informal suffrage restrictions on their supporters, or simply redistributing votes and seats through electoral fraud.
Hybrid Regimes: proliferation of notions
• façade democracy (Finer 1970)• democradura/dictablanda (Rouquié 1975)• pseudo democracy (Finer 1970,Diamond, Linz, Lipset
1995)• the semi-consolidated democracies (Freedom House); • illiberal democracy (Zakaria 1997), • electoral democracy (Diamond 1999),• defective democracies (Merkel and Croissant 2001), • competitive authoritarianism (Levitsky and Way 2002), • semi-authoritarianism (Ottaway 2003)• partial democracy (Epstein et al. 2006)• autocratic electoral regime (Wigell 2008)
• Karl (1990, 1995)
• Diamond (2002)
• Morlino (2008)
• Wigell (2008)
• Smolka Vida (2010)
• Hale (in Brown 2011)
• Linz & Stepan (2013)
Hybrid Regimes: a definition
- a set of rules and institutions where some authoritarian characteristics either disappeared or are seriously undermined and only some requisites are present among those requested by the minimal definition of democracy - or no longer minimally democratic and presence of some requisites of authoritarianism
Regime ibrido II• Un insieme di istituzioni, non importa se stabili o
no, persistenti per almeno un decennio, …• che sono state precedute da un autoritarismo,
da un regime tradizionale (magari con caratteristiche coloniali), o anche da una democrazia minima ….
• e sono caratterizzate dallo smantellamento del pluralismo limitato e da forme di partecipazione indipendenti, autonoma oltre che dall’assenza di alemno uno dei quattro aspetti di una democrazia minina.
Direzioni di analisi
1) Il lascito del regime precedente
2) Il processo di cambiamento e le sue conseguenze
3) Le caratteristiche distintive dei regimi ibridi
4) Le limitazioni che hanno impedito l’evoluzione verso una democrazia minima (pag. 68)
What kind of hybrid regime?___________________________________________________________________________
mobilization authoritarianisms limited democracy
post-colonial regimes democracy without law
• Protected democracy
• Limited democracy
• Democracy without State (law)
Significant dimensions in hybrid regimes
1.Rule of law
2.Electoral process Democracy without law:1,2,3
3.Functioning of government
4.Political pluralism and
participation Protected democracy: 4
5. Freedom of expression
6. Freedom of association
and organization Limited democracy:5, 6, 7
7. Autonomy and individual
The Three Components of Hybrid Regimes
variable Components 1 2 3 Rule of law .856 Electoral process .835 Government functioning .818 Pluralism and participation .862 Freedom of expression & beliefs .713 Freedom of association & organization .865 Personal autonomy and individual freedom .858
Notes: Percentage of explained variance: 80.623%; Method of Extraction: Principal Component Analysis; Method of rotation: Varimax with Kaiser normalization Only factor loadings > 0.5 represented.
Typology fo hybrid regimes
categories Quasi- democracies Limited democracies Democracies without state countries
Albania Bosnia Herzegovina Colombia Georgia Macedonia Madagascar Malaysia Moldova Mozambique Seychelles Singapore Sri Lanka Tanzania Turkey Zambia
Bangladesh Comoros Fiji Guatemala Guinea-Bissau Jordan Nicaragua Paraguay Sierra Leone Tonga
Armenia Burkina Faso Central African Rep. Ethiopia Gabon Kuwait Morocco Nepal Nigeria Uganda
Alternative typology (Linz & Stepan 2013)
• Authoritarian/democratic hybrid
• Democratic/authoritarian hybrid
• Traditional/democratic hybrid
• Sultanistic/democratic hybrid
• More specific:– Military/democratic hybrid– ……..