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OCTOBER 21, 2016 6

● The growth is expected to be driven by cars, food, travel and wine, while apparel and watches will lag.

BY LUISA ZARGANI

MILAN — Resilience. This was a recurring term at the Altagamma Observatory 2016 on Thursday.

This year has seen the first decline of Chinese spending globally, terrorist attacks that hurt tourist flows in Europe, and exchange rates that were unfavor-able to the euro. Despite this geopolitical uncertainty, the global luxury market is expected to grow 4 percent at constant exchange rates to 1.08 trillion euros, or $1.18 trillion at current exchange.

The performance was boosted by sales of luxury cars, up 8 percent, and a shift toward luxury travel, food, wine and fine art, according to Altagamma Worldwide Market Monitor 2016 and a study by Bain & Co.

But sales of personal luxury goods have dropped 1 percent to 249 billion euros, or $273.9 billion, compared with 2015. Personal luxury goods are forecast to grow 3 percent at constant rates in 2017.

Releasing the data, Claudia D’Arpizio, partner at Bain & Co., underscored how the industry was experiencing the “new normal” phase, initiated last year after a period of “Chinese bulimia” from 2010 to 2014, when sales in that region jumped 29.5 percent to 224 billion euros, or $246.4 billion.

D’Arpizio remained optimistic about the future of Chinese consumer spending, led by a growing population and pointing to an additional 32 million people by 2030, with an expanding urban middle class and an overall GDP increase. She character-ized Mainland China as “the rebirth of the phoenix,” although it is not fully offsetting a decline in overall Chinese international con-sumption. Sales of personal luxury goods in Mainland China in 2016 are expected to decrease 2 percent at current exchange but are seen growing 4 percent at constant exchange to 17 billion euros, or $18.7 billion.

Chinese spending in 2016 represented 25 percent of the global total and that is expected to grow, although Chinese shop-pers are spending less on personal luxury goods and more on fine art, luxury cars, luxury food and high-quality design.

South Korea is reporting a “buoyant trend,” which is offsetting declining sales in Hong Kong and Macau, although on a decelerating path.

Mainland China did not offset a decline in the U.S. and Japan.

In 2016, sales in the Americas are expected to drop 3 percent at current and 2 percent at constant exchange rates, representing 33 percent of global luxury goods revenues, totaling 82 billion euros, or $90.2 billion. The region will be hurt by the strong dollar and cautious local con-sumption. Department stores are trying to stimulate local consumption through discounts and promotions, which is detri-mental to the brands while they rational-ize and downsize their operations, said D’Arpizio. The U.S. election year is causing insecurity and is affecting consumer confi-dence in the region.

Selected currency movements strongly affected consumption through 2016, said the study. The Brexit vote drove the pound’s depreciation and lifted tourist shopping in the U.K. in a depressed Europe. The appreciation of the yen reduced Chinese spending in Japan and stimulated Japanese spending outside the country.

In 2016, Japan is forecast to gain 10

percent at current exchange rates but to decrease 1 percent at constant exchange to 22 billion euros, or $24.2 billion. Japan remains a key destination for Chinese consumers, although the scenario changed in April with the yen’s appreciation also denting local consumption.

Europe at constant exchange is seen decreasing 1 percent to 82 billion euros, or $90.2 billion, with tourism slowing in Germany and France.

Beauty is the fastest-growing category, gaining 4 percent and representing 21 percent of total sales. Hard luxury is down 5 percent, accounting for 22 percent of the total, with watches continuing to suffer from a slow Asian performance and overstocking. Apparel is down 4 percent, accounting for 23 percent of the total, and accessories are up 1 percent, representing 30 percent of the total.

D’Arpizio underscored the “dichotomy” in apparel “between struggling large specialists and more dynamic yet smaller lifestyle brands” and a “casualization trend” leading to the growth of luxury denim, down jackets and sport lines and activewear. Leather goods are outperform-ing at the entry price level, with men’s travel and backpacks. She also pointed to

a dynamic footwear market, marked by a more casual trend.

Online is the fastest growing channel, up 26 percent in the 2013-16 period. Retail is still outperforming the wholesale channel and department stores are seen in a struc-tural decline. D’Arpizio urged companies to focus on delivering “experiential” shopping.

“Luxury brands need to adjust and inno-vate. Brands that adapt their business and take an omnichannel, customer-centric approach will rise to the top,” she said.

She noted the “major changes” hitting the industry — including the digital revolu-tion helping emerging bands to compete, the growing adoption of instant fashion and new acquisitions and divestitures — are leading to multiple management and creative leadership changes, with more than 20 new chief executive officers and creative director appointments in the last 10 months alone.

Despite this “era of uncertainty,” D’Arpizio forecast that the personal luxury market is expected to reach revenues of between 280 and 285 billion euros, or $308 billion and $313.5 billion, by 2020 scoring a compound annual growth rate of between 3 and 4 percent from 2017. She pointed to a recovery of consumption in the U.S., a rebound of Chinese global spending, and a healthier markdown mar-ket as reasons for the growth.

According to Armando Branchini, vice president of Italian luxury goods associa-tion Fondazione Altagamma, who pre-sented the Consensus 2017 study, next year “apparel and accessories are expected to grow solidly after two years of stagnation, each category up 3 percent, as well as perfumes and cosmetics, up 4 percent,” while hard luxury, watches in particular, will continue to be slightly negative, down 1 percent. All markets, except for Japan, are expected to grow, with Asia leading, forecast to gain 4 percent. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortiza-tion are seen climbing 5 percent.

According to Global Blue, tax-free spending in 2017 is expected to grow between 2 and 4 percent in Europe.

Interviewed by Branchini, Carlo Alberto Beretta, newly nominated chief client and marketing officer at Kering and former Bottega Veneta ceo, underscored that “the structure of the collections must change, as carryover products have lost their appeal.”

Opting to call customers “clients,” he said that each “creates his or her own icon,” which requires companies to be more creative and innovative.

This was a view shared by Paolo Riva, ceo of Diane von Furstenberg, who also underscored a “different business model, with more focus on brand, product and innovation, and less on aggressive distri-bution, markdowns, standard products and logos.”

● Most on the list were higher than 2015’s ranking, but some brands saw their rankings decline.

BY VICKI M. YOUNG

Of the latest Top 100 Loyalty Leaders surveyed by Brand Keys, 17 percent of those on the list are retail brands from a number of sectors.

The listing represents the 20th annual survey by Brand Keys. It examined 635 brands in 72 categories.

In the latest loyalty listing, Amazon was the top retail brand on the list in second place, coming in behind Google, which placed first on this year’s ranking. Amazon was in eighth place on the 2015 listing. Zappos was second among retail brands, in 20th position on the overall Top 100 listing, which was down from its 12th position last year. Next was Ralph Lauren in 24th place, up from its 43rd ranking last year.

Others who made the Top 100 were: Nike, 15; Lancôme, 42; Sam’s Club, 47; MAC Cosmetics, 48; Old Navy, 53; Victo-ria’s Secret, 58; eBay, 64; TJ Maxx, 69; J.

Crew, 70; Costco, 77; Forever 21, 83; Estée Lauder, 87; Gap, 93, and Clinique, 97.

In addition to Zappos landing lower in the rankings, eBay also saw a drop — it was 38 a year ago. Also falling was J. Crew, which was in 60th place last year, and Gap, which as in the 73rd spot in 2015. Among the beauty brands, Lancôme, Lauder and Clinique saw declines from 2015: Lancôme was at 39, Lauder from its 53rd spot and Clinique, which was 76. And while Sephora also fell, it only slipped two notches from last year’s rank-ing of 24th place.

New to the list this year is Burt’s Bees,

coming in at 96.Robert Passikoff, Brand Keys founder

and president, said, “The shifts in loyalty leadership in retail have been monumental over the past couple of years.”

He explained the “largest loyalty shifts [that] we’ve measure this year have actually been in more traditional areas like apparel retail and athletic footwear, both a gift and a curse.” Passikoff said that while loyalty is a leading indicator of positive consumer behavior toward brands, it is getting more difficult for brands to create the kind of emotional engagement that resonates with consumers’ desires for connection.

FASHION

Retail Brands Among Top 100 Loyalty Leaders

BUSINESS

Luxury Goods Market Seen Growing 4 Percent in 2016

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