A probabilistic model for Limit Condition Emergency ...€¦ · Strategie di mitigazione del...

Relatore: Arch.Elena Speranza, Dipartimento della Protezione Civile

Relatore

Mauro Dolce Dipartimento della Protezione Civile,

Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche 22-23 Maggio 2013 Aula Convegni Via dei Marruccini

Gruppo di lavoro sul Modello di Valutazione della Condizione Limite dell’Emergenza Mauro Dolce (coordinatore) , Giacomo Di Pasquale, Elena Speranza, Francesco Giordano, Flavio Bocchi Contributi di : Fabrizio Bramerini, Sergio Castenetto , Rachele Ferlito, Giuseppe Naso, Angelo Pizza

Strategie di mitigazione del Rischio Sismico

La microzonazione sismica Esperienze, risultati e applicazioni dal 2008 al 2013

Un modello probabilistico di valutazione della CLE

A probabilistic model for Limit Condition Emergency evaluation

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PROCEDURE

• The strategic elements for the emergency management are localized in the technical map.

• Accessibility and interconnection routes between strategic elements are identified, possibly from the existing planning documents.

• Structural aggregates and isolated buildings that can interfere with the connection or accessibility routes or with the emergency areas are identified and reported on the map.

• Teams of surveyors fill the forms. • Contents of the forms are computerized and

put on a GIS. • LCE performance indices are evaluated.

LIMIT CONDITION FOR THE EMERGENCY

4


www.protezionecivile.gov.it

3

Objectives of ELC (CLE) evaluation A model for

Emergency Limit Condition

Objective

Evaluation of emergency system efficiency

(described by Emergency Limit Condition)

Scientific approach pursued:

PROBABILISTIC

Probability of efficiency preservation based on physical damage (direct and

indirect) of the elements of the system in relation to 2 seismic events (I_MCS) :

98 years

475 years

automatic calculation procedure

Efficiency indices

Output

GIS results layout

CLE forms

Input

GIS Project



ESn

ESn

ESn ESi

ESn

ESn Strategic Buildings (N)

Emergency Areas (J)

Emergency road system AC (X)

ACx

ACX

ACX

AC

X

AC

X

ACX ACX

ACk ACX

AC

k A

CX

AC

k A

CX

ACX AEj

AEj

AEj

AEj

Emergency system layout defined by 3 sub-systems

Emergency System layout A model for


Building blocks;

Constructions whose collapse might jeopardise the efficiency of emergency areas and road system.

H

L

Definition of physical

Interference



ACX

Complexity and Redundancy

ESn

ESn

ESn ESi

ESn

ESn ACx

ACX

ACX

AC

X

AC

X

ACk ACX

AC

k A

CX

AC

k A

CX

AC

X

AEj

AEj

AEj

ACX

ACX

A system is characterised by its Complexity and its Redundancy level

System Complexity raises by increasing the number of nodes

System Redundancy depends on the number of alternative

paths connecting the nodes each other

AEj

A model for




Subsystems and efficiency indices

• For each sub-system, and every return period T, operative Indices are formulated and calculated:

Subsystem “Strategic Buildings”

Subsystem “Emergency Areas”

Subsystem “Connections & paths”

I_OP [ES] 98

I_OP [ES] 475

I_OP [AE] 98

I_OP [AE] 475

I_OP [CO] 98

I_OP [CO] 475

Return periods

considered

T=98 T=475

I_OP [CLE] 98

I_OP [CLE] 475

I_OP [CLE] 0

CLE overall efficiency index

I_OP [ES] 0

I_OP [AE] 0

I_OP [CO] 0

T=0

Basic

efficiency

A model for



www.protezionecivile.gov.it Efficiency indices and quality coefficients

Efficiency index

of a generic element of the system

I_OP [T] = qTPe ][

Probability of efficiency preservation

Quality coefficient q

• q can be deemed as the probability, for a generic element of the system, of preserving its efficiency in ordinary conditions (T=0), hence before the occurrence of a seismic event.

• It is based on specific features of the elements obtained by CLE survey forms.

Assente

Leggero

Medio - grave

Gravissimo

Buono

Sufficiente

Carente

Superficie ≥ Superficie minima

0,75*Smin ≤ S < Smin

S < 0,75*Smin

37 Stabile

38 Frana

39 Liquefazione

40 Faglia attiva e capace

41 Cedimenti differenziali

42 Cavità sotterranee

46 Area alluvionabile

47 Rischio Pai (R3-R4)

DANNO STRUTTURALE

MICROZONAZIONE SISMICA

Sup

FUNZIONALITA'

31

STATO MANUTENTIVO

30

GEOLOGIA/IDROGEOLOGIA

COEFFICIENTE DI QUALITA' (q_ES)

Asfaltata (buone condizioni)

Asfaltata (cattive condizioni)

Fondo naturale

Fondo naturale non praticabile

Presenti

Da predisporre (allacci nelle vicinanze)

Da predisporre (allacci lontani)

Assenti

Presenti



Assenti

Presenti



Assenti

23 Stabile

24 Frana

25 Liquefazione







INFRASTRUTTURE DI SERVIZIO (FOGNATURA)

19

COEFFICIENTE DI QUALITA' (q_AE)PAVIMENTAZIONE E PERCORRIBILITA'

16

INFRASTRUTTURE DI SERVIZIO (ACQUA)

17

INFRASTRUTTURE DI SERVIZIO (ELETTRICITA')

18


Asfaltata (buone condizioni)

Asfaltata (cattive condizioni)

Pavimentata accidentata

Percorribilità carrabile ridotta

Discontinuità assenti o molto lievi

Discontinuità moderate

Discontinuità elevate

Interruzione

Assenza di elementi critici

22 Ferrovie in attraversamento

25 Ponti e viadotti attraversanti

23 Tunnel artificiali o naturali

24 Ponti e viadotti

30 Stabile

31 Frana

32 Liquefazione






18

19

COEFFICIENTE DI QUALITA' (q_AC)PAVIMENTAZIONE E PERCORRIBILITA'

OSTACOLI E DISCONTINUITA'

ELEMENTI CRITICI



• MS, geology/hydrogeology instabilities are associated with a sensible reduction of q in order to take into account the low probability of efficiency, even in ordinary conditions;

A model for




N

n

ESnESn qPe1

Efficiency index for sub-system

Strategic Buildings [ES]

I_OP(ES) [T]

=

ESnEMSESn ddPdClTPe )2(1],[ 98

Probability that the n-th individual element does not exceed damage level D2 (operativity).

ESnq Quality coefficient of the n-th

strategic building

J

j

AEjAEj qPe1

cl

Ncl

clEMSAEj PcClTPe )1(],[ 98

] 475,98[ anniT

]2,1,2,1,,[ 98 DDCCBAClEMS

I_OP(AE) [T]

=


Emergency Areas [AE]

Probability that the j-th area is not jeopardised by the collapse of N interfering buildings .

AEjq Quality coefficient of the j-th

emergency area

A model for

Emergency Limit Condition Sub-systems and efficiency indices



X

x

COxOPI1

_


Connections [CO]

I_OP(CO) [T]

=

The index represents the efficiency probability (generalised on the overall system) of all possible connections (as function of the number of nodes). It also depends on the redundancy of the system.

ES1 AE1 ES2

AE2

ES5

ES3

ES8

ES6

AE3

ES4

AE5

ES7 AE4

The efficiency index of an individual element depends on the total probability of alternative paths between two nodes.

RA2

ES1

AE 2

X

X X

A model for

Emergency Limit Condition Sub-systems and efficiency indices

Up to 3 alternative

connecting paths Are considered



Seismic Vulnerability of interfering buildings

Structural Units (buildings) are classified according to EMS 98 vulnerability classes, on the basis of constructive features included in the CLE survey forms. Damage to buildings, as a consequence of the considered events (T=98 e T=475) is processed through DPM (damage probability matrices).

Structural Units(ES, US)

When placed within a building block where many structural irregularities are present at the same time, the structural units included in the building block are subjected to pass to the worse vulnerability class.

B

A C1

C2 D1

C1 A

A B

B C1

B

Building blocks(AS)

10 Relatore: Arch. Elena Speranza, Dipartimento della Protezione Civile

A C1

C1 B D1 C2

B B A B C1 B

A model for




Overall Efficiency Index of the system

I_OP (CLE) [T]

The overall efficiency index for a given return period [T], outlines the probability of the system to keep the efficiency of the system. It is calculated as the product of the three indices related to the sub-system considered.

])[(])[(])[( TCOITAEITESI OPOPOP

Beyond the probability, it can also be useful to provide the average index and the minimum index of the system

Probability of keeping the efficiency of the system

Spread of critical situations

Seriousness of critical situations

0.04 0.54 0.83

Results layout

Efficiency index

Average

Minimum

A model for




ID_Funzione

StrategicaFunzione Strategica

009 Ospedale

005 Strutture Sanitarie

004 Casa di Cura

007a Carabinieri

008 Attività civili

003 Municipio

001 Stazione ferroviaria

010 Prefettura

006a Corpo Forestale dello Stato

006b Sede comunale decentrata

007b Carabinieri

006c Sede comunale decentrata

EDIFICI STRATEGICISTRATEGIC BUILDINGS

ID_Area di Emergenza Funzione Strategica

0000000001 AMMASSAMENTO

0000000006 RICOVERO

0000000015 RICOVERO


0000000017 RICOVERO


0000000019 RICOVERO


AREE DI EMERGENZASTRATEGIC AREAS

Application to Faenza (RA, Italy)

Number of residents: 58.150

COMPLEX and Very REDUNDANT

system

A model for


1 ES006c (Sede comunale decentrata)

2 ACC1 (ACCESSO 1)

4 ACC2 (ACCESSO 2)

6 ACC3 (ACCESSO 3)

8 ACC4 (ACCESSO 4)

10 ES007b (Carabinieri)

13 ES006b (Sede comunale decentrata)

14 AE0000000006 (Area di Emergenza)

15 ES006a (Corpo Forestale dello Stato)

21 ES007a (Carabinieri)

23 ES008 (Attività civili)

26 ES009 (Ospedale)

28 ES003 (Municipio)


32 ES005 (Strutture Sanitarie)

33 ES004 (Casa di Cura)




37 ES010 (Prefettura)

40 ES001 (Stazione ferroviaria)


42 ACC5 (ACCESSO 5)

NODI STRATEGICISTRATEGIC NODES 8

Emergency areas

12 Strategic Buildings

Nodes (strategic)



Application to Faenza (RA, Italy)

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1,0

0000

0000

01

0000

0000

06

00

00

00

00

15

0000

0000

16

0000

0000

17

0000

0000

18

0000

0000

19

0000

0000

22

Efficiency of Emergency Areas I_OP(AE)i

i op AEi (T=0) i op AEi (T=98) i op AEi (T=475)

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

Osp

edal

e

Stru

ttu

re S

anit

arie

Cas

a d

i Cu

ra

Car

abin

ieri

Att

ivit

à ci

vili

Mu

nic

ipio

Staz

ion

e fe

rro

viar

ia

Pre

fett

ura

Co

rpo

Fo

rest

ale

del

lo S

tato

Sed

e c

om

un

ale

dec

entr

ata

Car

abin

ieri

Sed

e c

om

un

ale

dec

entr

ata

009 005 004 007a 008 003 001 010 006a 006b 007b 006c

Efficiency of Strategic Buildings I_OP(ES)i

i op ESi (T=0) i op ESi (T=98) i op ESi (T=475)

A model for


Strategic Buildings Efficiency index

Emergency Areas Efficiency index



Connections Efficiency of single

stretches

Efficiency of connections

Problems on stretches 39, 40, 41

Town Council

A model for




Results explanation

Index approaching to 0 means that the probability of full efficiency of the

system is very low

Average (high) and minimum (low) outline that the problem is localized

and due to few elements of the system

Overall Efficiency index outlines that: The system has some critical points,

though specific and localized

Actions

Efficiency can be enhanced: by changing the emergency layout or

upgrading the efficiency of critical road stretches

Overall Efficiency index of the system

Efficiency index

Average Minimum

A model for




* Schemes obtained by: “Historic centre form”, by GNDT, DPC, SSN

Application to ideal systems

Application to ideal layouts of urban settlments so as to evaluate: • Influence of urban morphology; • Weight of some variables during the CLE planning phase ( inclusion/exclusion of historic centre, redundancy elements and so on);

All systems featured by:

8 SRATEGIC NODES +

2 ACCES FROM OUTSIDE

A model for




Achieved results

• So far the model has been tested on 2 urban settlements (Faenza, San Giustino) and tested on ideal systems; results are satisfactory;

• The evaluation of the efficiency of the overall emergency system, as well as of its individual elements is obtained as a probabilistic measure;

• Overall and analytical evaluations allow critical elements of the system to be identified in order to focus possible improvements and upgrade strategies;

A model for




Future work

• Testing the model on further samples, also on settlements recently damaged by earthquakes;

• Final Evaluation on the management of the model and its possible operational scopes.

A model for


A probabilistic model for Limit Condition Emergency ...€¦ · Strategie di mitigazione del...

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